> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # East Asia & Pacific Economic Update - April 2026: Industrial Policy in the Digital Age ## Core Content This report provides an overview of the economic performance and outlook for the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region in 2026, with a special focus on the role of industrial policy in the digital age. It highlights both macroeconomic trends and the impact of policy measures on productivity, growth, and structural transformation. ## Main Economic Outlook - **Overall Growth**: EAP growth is expected to decline in 2026 but recover in 2027, especially in the region outside China. - **China's Growth**: Projected to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, due to weak domestic demand, property sector challenges, and reduced external demand. - **Rest of the Region**: Growth is forecast to slow to 4.1% in 2026 due to oil price shocks, but rebound to 5.0% in 2027 as geopolitical tensions ease. - **Pacific Island Countries (PICs)**: Expected to grow at 2.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with oil price increases posing short-term challenges. - **Consumption and Investment**: Private consumption supports growth, but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Private investment surged in Malaysia and Thailand but is still below pre-pandemic levels in most EAP countries. - **Exports**: AI-related electronics exports saw strong growth in 2025, particularly in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Manufacturing exports remained robust, but other product categories grew more slowly. - **Inflation and Prices**: Rising oil and natural gas prices have increased inflation and reduced economic activity. The impact of Middle East conflicts on EAP economies is multi-faceted, depending on exposure, vulnerability, and policy space. - **Global Uncertainty**: Trade policy uncertainty remains high, which could negatively affect investment, employment, and job quality. ## Key Insights on Industrial Policy in the Digital Age ### Foundational Public Goods - **Human Capital**: Most developing EAP countries face significant deficits in human capital. China's expansion of tertiary education has boosted productivity and innovation. - **Infrastructure**: While some EAP countries have strong computing infrastructure, connectivity and startup ecosystems lag, especially outside China. - **Institutions**: Government effectiveness in many EAP countries remains below expectations for their level of development, particularly in the Pacific. ### Addressing Policy and Market Failures - **Subsidies and Tax Incentives**: Subsidies are concentrated in state-owned firms, while tax incentives are more dispersed and targeted toward foreign firms. In China, subsidies are associated with declining productivity, whereas tax incentives correlate with productivity gains. - **Export Promotion and Direct Transfers**: These policies have positive productivity effects in G-20 economies, but not in other emerging economies. - **Factor Market Influence**: Subsidized loans may lead firms to prioritize capital over labor, affecting employment and productivity. - **Sectoral Impact**: In the Republic of Korea, industrial policies in the 1970s significantly boosted output, employment, and exports. In contrast, China's state interventions in the shipbuilding industry increased market share but at higher costs than benefits. ### AI and Digital Transformation - **AI Adoption**: AI is diffusing slowly in much of EAP. The adoption rate is faster in some areas, with early signs of a productivity boom. - **AI Value Chain**: AI value chain activities are concentrated in China and the US, with China's open-source models widely used in other developing countries. - **Data Center Expansion**: Data center development is concentrated in a few EAP countries, with limited availability in others, especially those with AI computing capabilities. - **Skills Development**: Sector-targeted skills development is an important industrial policy tool, as shown in the case of Viet Nam. ### Structural Transformation and Challenges - **Manufacturing Decline**: The share of manufacturing in GDP has declined in most EAP countries (except Cambodia and Viet Nam), while the service sector has expanded. - **Productivity Gaps**: Firms at the national frontier in EAP countries are falling behind the global frontier, especially in digital-intensive sectors. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: Most EAP countries expect fiscal consolidation. Monetary policies have been supportive due to low inflation, and financial conditions have improved due to expectations of US rate cuts and lower sovereign spreads. - **Global Trade and Policy**: US tariffs have increased for all EAP countries, but the differential with China has decreased. China has shifted its export focus to the rest of EAP and other emerging markets, exporting higher volumes at lower prices. ## Special Focus Case Studies - **Thailand's Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC)**: Demonstrates an upgrade of the traditional export-FDI model, with a focus on EV and semiconductor industries. - **Viet Nam's Services Liberalization**: Removing barriers to services trade has increased productivity in both services and manufacturing sectors. - **China's Semiconductor Industry**: The focus on subsidies and tax incentives has had mixed results, with state-owned firms patenting more but being less efficient innovators. - **Malaysia's EV and AI Development**: EV sales show genuine growth but are still below 2030 targets. AI investment and data center development are growing, but adoption remains uneven. - **Indonesia's Mining Sector**: Mining contributes significantly to the economy, but there are challenges in export restrictions and value-added output. - **Philippines' Semiconductor Cluster**: The sector has emerged but remains at a lower position in the value chain, with potential for upgrading. ## Conclusion The EAP region is at a critical juncture in the digital age, where industrial policy must address both structural and policy-related challenges. The report emphasizes the need for more effective and inclusive industrial policies that promote innovation, improve productivity, and ensure sustainable growth. The role of public goods, such as human capital and infrastructure, is crucial, as is the balance between subsidies and tax incentives. The digital transformation, especially in AI and data centers, presents both opportunities and risks, requiring careful planning and policy design. ## Key Information Summary - **Growth Trends**: EAP growth is projected to decline in 2026 but recover in 2027, with China's growth slowing due to domestic and external factors. - **Consumer Confidence**: Remains weak across the region, with the impact of consumption subsidies fading in China. - **Private Investment**: Below pre-pandemic levels in most EAP countries, but strong in Malaysia and Thailand. - **Export Dynamics**: AI-related electronics exports have surged, but other exports have grown more slowly. China's exports are increasingly competitive in the region. - **Industrial Policy Effectiveness**: Subsidies are concentrated in state-owned firms and may lead to lower productivity, while tax incentives are more dispersed and correlated with productivity gains. - **AI Readiness**: EAP shows mixed AI readiness, with computing strengths but connectivity and startup ecosystem gaps. - **Policy Recommendations**: Address the "reform gap", enhance human capital, improve infrastructure, and adopt more balanced and inclusive industrial policies to support digital transformation and sustainable growth.