20181126-USDA-USDA_Crop_Progress_2018.11.26_10页_585kb

报告摘要

2018 U.S. Crop and Livestock Survey Summary

Overview

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), part of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released a report on November 26, 2018, outlining its annual December surveys on crops and livestock. These surveys, one of the largest efforts by the USDA, involve over 81,000 U.S. producers and are conducted during the first two weeks of December. The results provide final data on 2018 U.S. row crops, including harvested acreage, production, and storage. The data also support county-level estimates for the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program and insurance administration by the Risk Management Agency. The reports will be available starting with the Hogs and Pigs report on December 21, followed by the Annual Crop Production Summary and other reports on January 11, 2019. County-level row crop estimates will be released later in 2019. Farmers are encouraged to participate in the survey as their data is essential for accurate reporting.

Crop Progress and Condition Overview

Corn Harvested - Selected States

18 States harvested 94% of the 2017 corn acreage.
November 25, 2017: 94% of corn was harvested.
November 18, 2018: 90% of corn was harvested.
November 25, 2018: 94% of corn was harvested.
2013-2017 Average: 96%.
Key States:
- Illinois: 98% (2017), 100% (2018).
- North Carolina: 100% (2017), 100% (2018).
- North Dakota: 93% (2017), 71% (2018), 80% (2018).
- Wisconsin: 79% (2017), 80% (2018), 88% (2018).

Soybeans Harvested - Selected States

18 States harvested 95% of the 2017 soybean acreage.
November 25, 2017: 99% of soybeans were harvested.
November 18, 2018: 91% of soybeans were harvested.
November 25, 2018: 94% of soybeans were harvested.
2013-2017 Average: 98%.
Key States:
- Illinois: 100% (2017), 96% (2018), 100% (2018).
- North Carolina: 75% (2017), 58% (2018), 64% (2018).
- South Dakota: 100% (2017), 98% (2018), 100% (2018).
- Wisconsin: 96% (2017), 91% (2018), 94% (2018).

Cotton Harvested - Selected States

15 States harvested 98% of the 2017 cotton acreage.
November 25, 2017: 78% of cotton was harvested.
November 18, 2018: 59% of cotton was harvested.
November 25, 2018: 70% of cotton was harvested.
2013-2017 Average: 77%.
Key States:
- Arkansas: 100% (2017), 95% (2018), 98% (2018).
- California: 79% (2017), 75% (2018), 80% (2018).
- Texas: 70% (2017), 47% (2018), 60% (2018).

Sorghum Harvested - Selected States

11 States harvested 99% of the 2017 sorghum acreage.
November 25, 2017: 94% of sorghum was harvested.
November 18, 2018: 80% of sorghum was harvested.
November 25, 2018: 89% of sorghum was harvested.
2013-2017 Average: 94%.
Key States:
- Arkansas: 100% (2017), 100% (2018), 100% (2018).
- Colorado: 95% (2017), 65% (2018), 83% (2018).
- Texas: 96% (2017), 93% (2018), 96% (2018).

Peanuts Harvested – Selected States

8 States harvested 96% of the 2017 peanut acreage.
November 25, 2017: 97% of peanuts were harvested.
November 18, 2018: 86% of peanuts were harvested.
November 25, 2018: 91% of peanuts were harvested.
2013-2017 Average: 96%.
Key States:
- Florida: 100% (2017), 94% (2018), 97% (2018).
- Georgia: 99% (2017), 89% (2018), 93% (2018).
- North Carolina: 97% (2017), 90% (2018), 93% (2018).
- Virginia: 100% (2017), 97% (2018), 98% (2018).

Sunflowers Harvested - Selected States

4 States harvested 87% of the 2017 sunflower acreage.
November 25, 2017: 92% of sunflowers were harvested.
November 18, 2018: 69% of sunflowers were harvested.
November 25, 2018: 77% of sunflowers were harvested.
2013-2017 Average: 91%.
Key States:
- Colorado: 95% (2017), 72% (2018), 82% (2018).
- North Dakota: 92% (2017), 74% (2018), 80% (2018).
- South Dakota: 93% (2017), 98% (2018), 100% (2018).
- Texas: 96% (2017), 93% (2018), 96% (2018).

Winter Wheat Progress

Winter Wheat Planted - Selected States

18 States planted 90% of the 2017 winter wheat acreage.
November 25, 2017: 99% of winter wheat was planted.
November 18, 2018: 93% of winter wheat was planted.
November 25, 2018: 95% of winter wheat was planted.
2013-2017 Average: 99%.
Key States:
- Colorado: 100% (2017), 100% (2018), 100% (2018).
- Illinois: 100% (2017), 95% (2018), 100% (2018).
- North Carolina: 87% (2017), 53% (2018), 60% (2018).
- Ohio: 100% (2017), 96% (2018), 100% (2018).

Winter Wheat Emerged - Selected States

18 States planted 90% of the 2017 winter wheat acreage.
November 25, 2017: 91% of winter wheat emerged.
November 18, 2018: 81% of winter wheat emerged.
November 25, 2018: 86% of winter wheat emerged.
2013-2017 Average: 92%.
Key States:
- Arkansas: 89% (2017), 59% (2018), 70% (2018).
- Nebraska: 100% (2017), 98% (2018), 100% (2018).
- Oklahoma: 93% (2017), 82% (2018), 90% (2018).
- South Dakota: 100% (2017), 94% (2018), 98% (2018).

Winter Wheat Condition - Selected States

18 States planted 90% of the 2017 winter wheat acreage.
November 25, 2018:
- Very poor: 3%.
- Poor: 10%.
- Fair: 32%.
- Good: 45%.
- Excellent: 10%.
2013-2017 Average:
- Very poor: 3%.
- Poor: 9%.
- Fair: 38%.
- Good: 43%.
- Excellent: 7%.
Key States:
- Illinois: 95% (2017), 84% (2018), 86% (2018).
- Nebraska: 99% (2017), 98% (2018), 100% (2018).
- Oklahoma: 94% (2017), 81% (2018), 87% (2018).
- South Dakota: 100% (2017), 94% (2018), 98% (2018).

Moisture Conditions

Topsoil Moisture Condition - Selected States

48 States are included in the report.
November 25, 2018:
- Very short: 3%.
- Short: 7%.
- Adequate: 69%.
- Surplus: 21%.
2013-2017 Average:
- Very short: 8%.
- Short: 23%.
- Adequate: 63%.
- Surplus: 6%.
Key States:
- California: 70% (Very short), 10% (Short), 25% (Adequate), - (Surplus).
- Oklahoma: 4% (Very short), 14% (Short), 79% (Adequate), 3% (Surplus).
- New Mexico: 10% (Very short), 30% (Short), 60% (Adequate), 2% (Surplus).
- Texas: - (Very short), 7% (Short), 76% (Adequate), 17% (Surplus).

Subsoil Moisture Condition - Selected States

48 States are included in the report.
November 25, 2018:
- Very short: 5%.
- Short: 11%.
- Adequate: 67%.
- Surplus: 17%.
2013-2017 Average:
- Very short: 9%.
- Short: 24%.
- Adequate: 62%.
- Surplus: 5%.
Key States:
- California: 70% (Very short), 5% (Short), 25% (Adequate), - (Surplus).
- Oklahoma: 6% (Very short), 15% (Short), 76% (Adequate), 3% (Surplus).
- New Mexico: 53% (Very short), 31% (Short), 16% (Adequate), - (Surplus).
- Texas: - (Very short), 9% (Short), 72% (Adequate), 19% (Surplus).

Survey and Estimation Methodology

Survey Procedures:
- Surveys are conducted from early April through late November.
- Approximately 3,600 respondents provide data based on visual observations and contact with farmers.
- Data is submitted via mail, phone, fax, email, or secure internet.
- Most data is submitted on Monday morning, reducing projection uncertainty.
Estimating Procedures:
- Data is reviewed for reasonableness and consistency.
- County data is weighted by NASS county acreage estimates.
- Progress and condition are compared with previous weeks and historical averages.
- Weather and respondent comments are considered.
Weighting:
- Days suitable for fieldwork, topsoil moisture, and subsoil moisture are weighted by cropland acreage from the Census of Agriculture.
- National crop planting, development stages, and condition are weighted by the average planted acres over the previous three crop years.
- Harvest progress is weighted by the average harvested acres over the previous three crop years.
- Pasture and range condition is weighted by pasture acreage and livestock inventories.

Next Steps and Reports

The last weekly Crop Progress report for the 2018 season was published.
The first weekly report for 2019 will be released on April 1, 2019.
All reports are available electronically at no cost on the NASS website: www.nass.usda.gov.
Free email subscriptions are available for national and state-specific reports.