2017年-世界发展银行全球_Securing_Energy_for_Development_in_West_Bank_and_Gaza___Summary_Report_24页_1mb

Summary Report: Securing Energy for Development in West Bank and Gaza

Core Content

The document outlines the current and future energy challenges in the Palestinian Territories, emphasizing the need for diversified and sustainable energy supply options to ensure energy security and support development. It highlights the existing energy supply situation, the financial and institutional constraints, and the potential for renewable energy and gas-fired generation.

Current Energy Supply Situation

• Energy Shortages: The Palestinian Territories face significant energy security challenges. Gaza has a 50% shortfall in electricity demand, with rolling blackouts of 8 hours on and 8 hours off. The West Bank also experiences shortages during peak winter and summer months.
• Import Dependency: Most electricity is imported from Israel, with 99% of the West Bank and 64% of Gaza relying on Israeli electricity. Jordan and Egypt provide smaller amounts of electricity to the West Bank and Gaza, respectively.
• Renewable Development: The Palestinian Authority has set a target of 130 MW of renewable energy by 2020, but only 18 MW have been developed to date.
• Gaza Power Plant: The only large-scale generation facility in Gaza is a 140 MW diesel-fired plant, which is costly and frequently damaged. It is expected to be converted to natural gas, which would reduce operating costs significantly.
• Electricity Sector Reforms: The sector has undergone reforms, including the creation of PERC (sector regulator) and PETL (transmission operator), but these require further consolidation.

Financial and Institutional Challenges

• Tariff Issues: Electricity tariffs in the Palestinian Territories do not cover costs, especially in Gaza, where they have not been adjusted in a decade. This leads to significant implicit subsidies, estimated at 1-5% of GDP.
• Debt Accumulation: The 'net lending' crisis has led to a high accumulation of debt owed to the Israeli Electric Corporation (IEC), with over NIS 2 billion (US$500 million) in debt by 2016.
• Payment Mechanisms: The 'net lending' mechanism allows Israel to deduct funds from the Palestinian Authority's clearance revenues to cover unpaid electricity bills, but neither Jordan nor Egypt have access to this mechanism.

Available Energy Options

• Israeli Imports: Remain a reliable and currently cost-effective option, but require upgrading interconnection capacity. IEC's future as a power exporter is uncertain due to its own financial issues.
• Jordan and Egypt: Potential for medium-term imports, but with higher costs and reliability issues. Egypt has a lower cost due to natural gas but faces security and political constraints.
• Gas Imports: Feasible in the medium term due to major gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel is planning to extend gas pipelines to Gaza and Jenin to support gas-fired generation.
• Renewables: Solar energy is the only significant renewable resource in the Palestinian Territories. The West Bank has substantial potential for solar PV, especially in Area C, while Gaza has limited potential due to land constraints.
• Energy Efficiency: A key strategy for reducing demand and improving affordability. The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan aims to save 1% of energy consumption annually, with a more ambitious plan targeting 5% savings from 2020 to 2030.

Choosing Among Options

• Balanced Approach: The planning model suggests a balanced portfolio of energy sources to meet demand affordably and reliably.
• Scenarios Considered:
  • Do Nothing: Leads to a 9% unserved demand by 2030.
  • Planned Future: Involves current projects and results in no unserved demand but a moderate reliance on Israeli imports.
  • PENRA Vision: Aims for a balanced mix of solar and gas, reducing reliance on Israeli imports.
  • Maximum Cooperation: Relies heavily on Israeli imports.
  • Maximum Independence: Focuses on domestic generation, though still requires gas imports.

Key Financial Implications

• Tariff Adjustments: The financial equilibrium tariff for the West Bank is projected to rise to NIS 0.66 (US$0.18) per kilowatt-hour by 2022, which could be affordable with targeted subsidies.
• Subsidy Requirements: A targeted subsidy of up to NIS 25 million (US$7 million) per year would be needed to ensure affordability for the poorest households.
• Cost of Generation: The cost of different generation options converges over time, with renewables and gas becoming more competitive than diesel.

Solar and Gas Potential

• Solar Energy: The West Bank has a potential of 3,477 MW for solar (including 534 MW of rooftop solar and 3,000 MW in Area C). Gaza has a potential of 163 MW for rooftop solar.
• Gas Potential: The Gaza Marine gas field, with 1.2 TCF of gas, could provide a significant domestic energy source, though development is delayed due to political and regulatory challenges.
• Cost Trends: The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar and gas is expected to decrease, making them more viable alternatives to diesel.

Conclusion

The document underscores the urgent need for investment in renewable energy and gas-fired generation to reduce reliance on Israeli imports and improve energy security. It also highlights the importance of institutional reforms, tariff adjustments, and targeted subsidies to ensure affordability and financial sustainability of the electricity sector.