2011年-世界发展银行全球_Vulnerability_to_Higher_Oil_Prices___Decomposition_Analysis_of_One_Hundred_and_158_Countries_between_2003_and_2008_14页_2mb

Summary of Vulnerability to Higher Oil Prices

Core Content

This document provides a decomposition analysis of vulnerability to higher oil prices across 158 countries from 2003 to 2008, focusing on how changes in oil production and consumption affected the vulnerability metric, defined as the share of GDP spent on net oil imports. The analysis highlights the impact of oil price changes, oil intensity, and other factors on economic vulnerability and discusses how some countries managed to reduce their vulnerability through effective policies.

Main Findings

Overall Trends

• Vulnerability increased in 82% of countries during the 2003–2008 period.
• 26 countries experienced an increase in vulnerability of more than 5 percentage points of GDP.
• 4 countries saw an increase of more than 10 percentage points of GDP.
• The low-income group had the highest proportion of countries with increased vulnerability and an increase of more than 5 percentage points.

Regional Insights

• AFR had the highest number of countries with increased oil intensity (36%).
• LAC and AFR had the largest increases in vulnerability.
• AFR also had the highest share of countries where rising oil intensity worsened vulnerability.
• EAP showed a wide range of vulnerability changes, with Timor-Leste having the largest adverse oil intensity effect (4.7 percentage points), but it was offset by significant oil export income.
• SAR and MNA had a small number of countries with high vulnerability.

Top 20 Most Vulnerable Countries in 2008

• All 20 countries were non-oil producers in 2008.
• 16 out of 20 were also in the top 20 for increases in vulnerability.
• Most of these countries were low, lower-middle, or upper-middle income.
• AFR had the largest number of countries in the top 20, with 16 out of 20.
• Liberia, Seychelles, and Sierra Leone had the highest vulnerability levels in 2008, with Seychelles at 25%.

Key Factors Influencing Vulnerability

• Oil intensity (oil consumed per unit of GDP) was a major contributor to increased vulnerability.
• Oil share of energy and energy intensity were the two main components of oil intensity.
• The proxy real exchange rate had a positive effect in all countries, contributing to vulnerability.
• Production effects included changes in oil prices, oil production levels, and GDP.
• Consumption effects included oil price effects through consumption, oil share, energy intensity, and exchange rate.

Notable Countries

• Mauritania was one of only two countries with a negative consumption effect, indicating successful efforts to reduce vulnerability.
• Maldives and Jordan significantly reduced oil intensity, which would have increased their vulnerability by 8 percentage points without these measures.
• Tonga saw a 4 percentage point increase in vulnerability due to rising oil intensity.

Key Information

• The annual average oil prices in 2008 were close to those in 2011, making the analysis relevant to current conditions.
• The decomposition method used a refined Laspeyres index to isolate the impact of oil price changes from other factors.
• Oil share of energy increased in 24 out of 42 AFR countries, but energy intensity fell in most.
• Energy intensity fell markedly across all regions, but oil share increased in many.
• Exchange rate effects were positive in all countries, contributing to vulnerability.
• The median increase in vulnerability was highest in EAP and LAC.

Conclusion

The analysis reveals that most countries experienced increased vulnerability to oil price rises between 2003 and 2008. While some countries managed to reduce their vulnerability through improved oil intensity and exchange rate adjustments, others saw significant increases. The findings highlight the importance of understanding the factors contributing to vulnerability and suggest the need for detailed analysis of why some countries deviate from global trends.