2025-06-10-花旗集团-新加坡交易所（SGXL）_新加坡交易所（SGXL.SI）_2025年5月数据_波动率正常化_11个月（截至2025年）证券日均交易额领先3_；衍生品日均交易额略落后_11页_351kb

Flash Summary: Citigroup Research on Singapore Exchange (SGXL.SI)

Date: 09 & 10 June 2025

Overall Rating: Sell

Key Statistics (May-25):

• Securities Daily Average Value (SDAV): S$1.345B (+6% yoy, -30% mom). 11m25 SDAV (S$1.349B) is 3% ahead of consensus FY25E SDAV target.
• Derivatives Contract Volumes: -15% mom (+6% yoy). 11mFY25 volumes slightly behind consensus.
• Valuation: SGX trades at 23.6x 12m forward P/E (historical range 19-24x), ~1.6SD above mean.

Citi Research Valuation & P/E Outlook:

• Target Price: S$11.90 (down from current level S$14.06).
• Uses Dividend Discount Model and focuses on P/E cycle analysis.
• Target multiple based on the high-end of the historical P/E range due to conservative earnings forecast.

Citi Research Risks & Caveats:

• Consolidated Analyst Certification & Disclosures: Includes standard Citigroup research disclaimer about conflicts of interest, client relationships, compensation tied to Firm profitability (not recommendations). Reference Appendix A-1.
• Risk Highlights:
  • SGX mirrors overall Singapore market performance.
  • Volatility in securities and derivatives turnover.
  • Global sector re-rating/M&A (unlikely major cross-border Asia deal, but considering bolt-ons).
  • Margins (potential pressure due to low-margin futures and competition).
  • Any factor exceeding anticipated negative impact lowers the target price; exceeding anticipated upside results may lead to a stock price materially exceeding the target.
• Disclaimer Regarding Analyst Compensation & Potential Conflicts: Clarifies compensation is not linked to specific recommendations but benefits from overall Firm success. Discloses Firm activities include non-research services (access, M&A linking, trading) to clients, potentially influencing engagement.

Key Findings & Recommendation:

• Short-term volatility last month skewed parameters before returning to relative normalization.
• While normalized SDAV is slightly ahead of target (11mFY25), derivatives volumes lagged.
• "Sell" recommendation based on valuation (high P/E) and negative risk assessment.

Contact:

• Yong Hong TanAC
• Email: Yong.Hong.Tan@citi.com