> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Summary of *The State of E-commerce in Central Europe in 2026* ## Core Content E-commerce in Central Europe has reached a high level of maturity, with growth stabilizing after periods of expansion and volatility. The region is characterized by diverse market structures and consumer behaviors, with Germany being the dominant market, accounting for nearly 57% of total regional e-commerce revenue by 2026. Other markets like Poland and Switzerland show distinct patterns, with Poland having a larger population base and Switzerland exhibiting high per-capita spending. ## Main Trends - **Stable Growth**: E-commerce revenue in Central Europe is projected to reach nearly €224bn by 2027, growing at a CAGR of around 9%. - **Market Maturity Gradient**: There is a clear maturity gradient across the region, with more developed markets like Germany and Switzerland showing lower growth rates due to high online penetration, while less mature markets like Poland and Greece continue to grow faster. - **Cross-Border Shopping**: Cross-border e-commerce is a structural component of online spending, especially in smaller or less developed markets where consumers rely on international retailers for broader product availability. - **Shift from Order Value to Frequency**: Competitive dynamics are shifting from order value to repeat engagement, as basket sizes stabilize and consumers become more habitual in their online shopping behavior. - **Category Mix**: Mature markets in Central Europe (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) show a similar category mix, with electronics, fashion, and groceries as key segments. However, Poland has a more distinct structure due to varying stages of market development. ## Key Insights ### E-commerce Revenue Equation E-commerce growth is increasingly driven by the number of buyers and their buying frequency rather than order value alone. The equation includes: - **Average Net Order Value**: Stabilized at category-specific levels. - **Return Rate**: Increased, with a slight decline in the complement of return rate. - **Number of Buyers**: Grew at an annual rate of 1.5%. - **Buying Frequency**: Showed the strongest growth, increasing by 4.3% per year. ### Consumer Needs E-commerce growth is ultimately constrained by timeless consumer needs, which include: - **Secure Environment**: Ensuring trust and protection of data and identity. - **Fair Value Perception**: Consumers seek transparency and confidence in their purchases. - **Effort Minimization**: Reducing cognitive, emotional, and operational effort in the purchase process. - **Decision Confidence**: Ensuring consumers feel assured that their choices are correct. ### Hygienic Enablers These are foundational solutions that reduce friction in the customer journey: - **Cybersecurity**: Critical for maintaining consumer trust. - **Basic User Experience**: Ensures smooth checkout and reduces cart abandonment. - **Fundamental Checkout Rails**: Offers diverse payment options, including mobile wallets and BNPL, to support transaction completion. ### Differentiating Levers These tools aim to amplify consumer engagement and loyalty: - **Loyalty Programs**: Encourage repeat purchases and broaden engagement. - **Personalization & CRM**: Reduce search and comparison costs, increase relevance, and support purchase intention. - **Subscriptions & Promotions**: Smooth purchasing behavior and lower perceived transactional effort. - **Information Overload**: Can lead to decision fatigue and avoidance, limiting the effectiveness of human-centric strategies. ## Agentic Commerce Agentic commerce is an emerging paradigm that introduces AI-driven systems to support and, in some cases, execute transactions on behalf of consumers. It reshapes the purchase journey by: - **Supporting Discovery and Decision-Making**: AI agents help narrow choices and provide relevant product recommendations. - **Reducing Human Effort**: Moves parts of decision-making from humans to AI, simplifying the process and increasing relevance. - **Strategic Importance**: As decision-making increasingly flows through intelligent intermediaries, merchants must adapt to remain relevant. ## Outlook and Opportunities - **Adaptation to Agentic Commerce**: The transition to agentic commerce will unfold gradually and unevenly, with human-led and agent-led journeys coexisting. - **Regional Relevance**: While global signals can inform adoption, local consumer expectations, regulatory frameworks, and payment infrastructures must be considered to ensure relevance. - **Strategic Necessity**: For small and mid-sized retailers, improving customer experience, convenience, and relevance is crucial for driving repeat purchases in mature product categories. ## Conclusion E-commerce in Central Europe is evolving toward a more customer-focused model, where buying frequency and relevance become key drivers of growth. Agentic commerce represents the next phase of this evolution, offering new opportunities for merchants to engage consumers more effectively through AI-driven systems. The challenge for the region lies in interpreting global trends while adapting to local realities to ensure long-term competitiveness.