20260417-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_7页_733kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from CMBI (Citibank, N.A. (Hong Kong) Branch), focusing on recent market movements, new issuance activity, and macroeconomic insights related to China and other Asian markets. It also includes trading desk comments, new issues, market color, and important disclosures.

Market Movements

Fixed Income Market:
- The new EVRGTT 29 tightened by 10bps from RO at $T + 160.
- PCORPM 7.35 Perp rose 1.5pts.
- QDJZWD 28 recovered 0.4pt.
- EHICAR 26 was 0.8pt lower.
- Overall, prices were largely unchanged, with two-way flows skewed towards better buying in LGFVs, higher-beta CNH issues, and European AT1s.
Top Movers:
- Top Performers:
  - CCAMCL 4 3/4 12/04/37 +1.7pt
  - FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 +0.5pt
  - NDPAPE 14 PERP +0.5pt
  - BSFR 6 3/8 PERP +0.4pt
  - ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 +0.4pt
- Top Underperformers:
  - QDJZWD 6.95 03/31/28 -1.3pt
  - GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP -1.0pt
  - PCORPM 7.35 PERP -1.0pt
  - GLPSP 4.6 PERP -0.8pt
  - TACHEM 5.8 07/05/64 -0.8pt

New Issuances

Priced Issues:

ZHHFGR 3yr dim sum bond priced at 4.2% for refinancing.
- Issuer: Zhuhai Huafa Group
- Size: RMB500mn
- Structure: Issued through Huafa Investment Holding 2022 I Company Limited, guaranteed by Zhuhai Huafa Group.
- Valuation: Considered fair, compared to ZHHFGR 3.05 10/17/28 (YTM: 4.0%) and adjusted for a 6-month longer tenor.
- Proceeds: To refinance the maturing ZHHFGR 4 1/2 04/27/26 bond.

Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced):

Issuer/Guarantor	Size (USD mn)	Tenor	Coupon	Priced	Issue Rating
Agricultural Bank of China/London	300	3yr	SOFR+35	SOFR+35	A1/-/-
Evergreen Marine Green	300	3yr	5.25%	T+160	Unrated
Malayan Banking Berhad	600	3yr	SOFR+57	SOFR+57	A3/-/-
Yangzhou Urban Construction	300	3yr	3.9%	3.9%	Unrated

China Economic Outlook

Q1 GDP Growth: Improved to 5.0% YoY, beating market expectations.
GDP Deflator: Improved to -0.1% from -0.6% in 4Q25, indicating a possible positive reading in 2Q26.
Industrial Output and Fixed Asset Investment (FAI):
- Industrial output remained resilient, driven by exports and fiscal expansion.
- FAI growth dropped to -1.4% YoY in March, but manufacturing investment improved to 4.9%.
- Property investment remained the main drag at -11.3% YoY in March.
Retail Sales: Moderated in March to 1.7% growth, below market expectations of 2.5%.
- Policy-sensitive categories like home appliances and autos weakened.
- Food and beverage still held up well at 9.5%.
Property Sector:
- Sales and prices in tier-1 cities showed limited recovery.
- GFA sold for commodity buildings narrowed to -10.4% YTD in 3M26.
- Second-hand housing sales in 11 selective cities rebounded to 9.63% YoY in early April.
- Housing prices in tier-1 cities rose by 0.2% and 0.4%, while lower-tier cities declined further.
GDP Forecast:
- CMBI expects GDP growth to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026.
- A 50bp RRR cut and 10bp LPR cut are expected by end-3Q26.

Key Macro Events

US Market:
- S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all rose on Thursday.
- Initial jobless claims increased by 207k, lower than expected 213k.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 26.7, higher than expected 10.3.
- UST yields rose, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.78%/3.91%/4.32%/4.93%.

News and Market Color

Onshore Primary Issuances:
- 163 credit bonds issued yesterday, totaling RMB189bn.
- Month-to-date: 1,165 credit bonds issued, raising RMB1,165bn, a 20.5% YoY increase.
Other News:
- HZSHCT: Fitch changed the outlook of Hangzhou Shangcheng Urban Construction & Comp. to positive from stable, with BBB- rating affirmed.
- JFCPM: Jolibee Group's USD86mn acquisition of All Day Fresh approved by South Korea's competition regulator.
- LIFUNG: S&P affirmed Li & Fung's BB ratings, with a stable outlook.
- MARUB: Marubeni bought 85% stake in Factor Energia for EUR204mn (cUSD240.5mn).
- MONMIN: Mongolian Mining saw a 60% YoY increase in coking coal sales.
- NSANY: Fitch affirmed Nissan Motor at BB, with negative outlook; in talks with Chery Automobile for Sunderland plant utilization.
- SMPHD: Sompo Holdings partnered with Extracover Holdings (Zego) for digital insurance products in Japan.
- TAISEM: TSMC expects 2Q26 revenue to grow >30% YoY due to AI demand.

Important Disclosures

CMBI has investment banking relationships with some issuers in the report.
Author Certification:
- All views reflect personal opinions of the author.
- No compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed.
Market Participation:
- CMBI may have positions, make markets, or act as principal in securities of companies mentioned.
Legal Disclaimer:
- The report is for intended recipients only.
- It is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell securities.
- Investors should consult professional advisors before making investment decisions.
- No liability is assumed for any reliance on the report's information.

Summary of Key Points

Market Dynamics:
- Prices largely unchanged, with flows favoring LGFVs, CNH issues, and European AT1s.
- Zhuhai Huafa Group issued a 3yr dim sum bond at 4.2%, with government support and strong ownership.
Economic Outlook:
- Q1 GDP rebounded, but recovery was uneven.
- Property sector remains weak, with limited signs of recovery.
- Retail sales and service output moderated in March.
- FAI growth is expected to improve from -3.8% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026.
Policy Expectations:
- CMBI forecasts 50bp RRR cut and 10bp LPR cut by end-3Q26.
Macro Events:
- US markets showed positive movement, with strong manufacturing data.
- UST yields rose, indicating tightening monetary conditions.