> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary Summary ## Core Content Overview This document is a **Fixed Income Daily Market Update** from CMBI (Citibank, N.A. (Hong Kong) Branch), focusing on recent market movements, new issuance activity, and macroeconomic insights related to China and other Asian markets. It also includes **trading desk comments**, **new issues**, **market color**, and **important disclosures**. --- ## Market Movements - **Fixed Income Market**: - The new **EVRGTT 29** tightened by **10bps** from RO at **$T + 160**. - **PCORPM 7.35 Perp** rose **1.5pts**. - **QDJZWD 28** recovered **0.4pt**. - **EHICAR 26** was **0.8pt lower**. - Overall, prices were largely unchanged, with two-way flows skewed towards better buying in **LGFVs**, **higher-beta CNH issues**, and **European AT1s**. - **Top Movers**: - **Top Performers**: - **CCAMCL 4 3/4 12/04/37** +1.7pt - **FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27** +0.5pt - **NDPAPE 14 PERP** +0.5pt - **BSFR 6 3/8 PERP** +0.4pt - **ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28** +0.4pt - **Top Underperformers**: - **QDJZWD 6.95 03/31/28** -1.3pt - **GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP** -1.0pt - **PCORPM 7.35 PERP** -1.0pt - **GLPSP 4.6 PERP** -0.8pt - **TACHEM 5.8 07/05/64** -0.8pt --- ## New Issuances ### Priced Issues: - **ZHHFGR 3yr dim sum bond** priced at **4.2%** for refinancing. - **Issuer**: Zhuhai Huafa Group - **Size**: RMB500mn - **Structure**: Issued through **Huafa Investment Holding 2022 I Company Limited**, guaranteed by **Zhuhai Huafa Group**. - **Valuation**: Considered fair, compared to **ZHHFGR 3.05 10/17/28** (YTM: 4.0%) and adjusted for a 6-month longer tenor. - **Proceeds**: To refinance the maturing **ZHHFGR 4 1/2 04/27/26** bond. ### Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced): | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating | |------------------------------|---------------|-------|----------------|-------------|--------------| | Agricultural Bank of China/London | 300 | 3yr | SOFR+35 | SOFR+35 | A1/-/- | | Evergreen Marine Green | 300 | 3yr | 5.25% | T+160 | Unrated | | Malayan Banking Berhad | 600 | 3yr | SOFR+57 | SOFR+57 | A3/-/- | | Yangzhou Urban Construction | 300 | 3yr | 3.9% | 3.9% | Unrated | --- ## China Economic Outlook - **Q1 GDP Growth**: Improved to **5.0%** YoY, beating market expectations. - **GDP Deflator**: Improved to **-0.1%** from **-0.6%** in 4Q25, indicating a possible **positive reading in 2Q26**. - **Industrial Output and Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Industrial output remained resilient, driven by **exports** and **fiscal expansion**. - FAI growth dropped to **-1.4%** YoY in March, but **manufacturing investment** improved to **4.9%**. - **Property investment** remained the main drag at **-11.3%** YoY in March. - **Retail Sales**: Moderated in March to **1.7%** growth, below market expectations of **2.5%**. - **Policy-sensitive categories** like home appliances and autos weakened. - **Food and beverage** still held up well at **9.5%**. - **Property Sector**: - Sales and prices in **tier-1 cities** showed limited recovery. - **GFA sold** for commodity buildings narrowed to **-10.4%** YTD in 3M26. - **Second-hand housing sales** in 11 selective cities rebounded to **9.63%** YoY in early April. - **Housing prices** in tier-1 cities rose by **0.2%** and **0.4%**, while lower-tier cities declined further. - **GDP Forecast**: - CMBI expects **GDP growth to slow** from **5.0% in 2025** to **4.7% in 2026**. - A **50bp RRR cut** and **10bp LPR cut** are expected by **end-3Q26**. --- ## Key Macro Events - **US Market**: - S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all rose on Thursday. - **Initial jobless claims** increased by **207k**, lower than expected **213k**. - **Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index** came in at **26.7**, higher than expected **10.3**. - UST yields rose, with **2/5/10/30 year yields** at **3.78%/3.91%/4.32%/4.93%**. --- ## News and Market Color - **Onshore Primary Issuances**: - 163 credit bonds issued yesterday, totaling **RMB189bn**. - Month-to-date: **1,165 credit bonds** issued, raising **RMB1,165bn**, a **20.5% YoY increase**. - **Other News**: - **HZSHCT**: Fitch changed the outlook of **Hangzhou Shangcheng Urban Construction & Comp.** to **positive** from **stable**, with **BBB- rating affirmed**. - **JFCPM**: Jolibee Group's USD86mn acquisition of **All Day Fresh** approved by South Korea's competition regulator. - **LIFUNG**: S&P affirmed **Li & Fung's BB ratings**, with a **stable outlook**. - **MARUB**: Marubeni bought **85% stake** in **Factor Energia** for **EUR204mn** (cUSD240.5mn). - **MONMIN**: Mongolian Mining saw a **60% YoY increase** in coking coal sales. - **NSANY**: Fitch affirmed **Nissan Motor at BB**, with **negative outlook**; in talks with **Chery Automobile** for Sunderland plant utilization. - **SMPHD**: **Sompo Holdings** partnered with **Extracover Holdings (Zego)** for digital insurance products in Japan. - **TAISEM**: **TSMC** expects **2Q26 revenue to grow >30% YoY** due to **AI demand**. --- ## Important Disclosures - CMBI has **investment banking relationships** with some issuers in the report. - **Author Certification**: - All views reflect **personal opinions** of the author. - No compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed. - **Market Participation**: - CMBI may have **positions**, **make markets**, or **act as principal** in securities of companies mentioned. - **Legal Disclaimer**: - The report is for **intended recipients only**. - It is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell securities. - **Investors should consult professional advisors** before making investment decisions. - **No liability** is assumed for any reliance on the report's information. --- ## Summary of Key Points - **Market Dynamics**: - Prices largely unchanged, with flows favoring **LGFVs**, **CNH issues**, and **European AT1s**. - **Zhuhai Huafa Group** issued a **3yr dim sum bond** at **4.2%**, with government support and strong ownership. - **Economic Outlook**: - **Q1 GDP** rebounded, but **recovery was uneven**. - **Property sector** remains weak, with **limited signs of recovery**. - **Retail sales** and **service output** moderated in March. - **FAI growth** is expected to improve from **-3.8% in 2025** to **1.1% in 2026**. - **Policy Expectations**: - CMBI forecasts **50bp RRR cut** and **10bp LPR cut** by **end-3Q26**. - **Macro Events**: - US markets showed **positive movement**, with **strong manufacturing data**. - **UST yields** rose, indicating **tightening monetary conditions**. --- ## Author Information - **Glenn Ko, CFA** - Contact: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk - **Cyrena Ng, CPA** - Contact: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk - **Yujing Zhang** - Contact: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk