美国农业部-美股-农业行业-大米展望：将美国大米进口预期上调至新纪录-20200714-13页_223kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (July 2020)

Core Content Overview

The Rice Outlook report by the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an analysis of U.S. and global rice production, use, and trade forecasts for the 2020/21 marketing year. It highlights changes in supply and demand dynamics, as well as the impact of weather, market conditions, and international trade patterns on U.S. rice markets.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

Total U.S. rice production for 2020/21 is projected at 220.7 million cwt, a 2% increase from the previous forecast, driven by a 74,000-acre increase in planted area (up 15% from the prior year).
Long-grain production is expected at 161.8 million cwt, up 4% from the previous forecast and 29% from the prior year.
Medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.9 million cwt, a 3% decrease from the previous forecast and 4% from the prior year.
Arkansas accounts for 72% of the U.S. production increase, with Mississippi and Missouri also contributing significantly.
Texas and Louisiana show 17% and 1% increases in planted area, respectively.

Crop Progress

Crop progress varies by region:
- Arkansas: Only 1% of the crop was headed by July 5, 1% behind last year due to spring rainfall.
- Missouri: 2% headed, 2% ahead of last year but 6% below the 5-year average.
- Texas: 75% headed, well ahead of last year's 43% and the 5-year average of 53%.
- California: 20% headed, well ahead of last year's 9% and the 5-year average of 12%.

Crop Conditions

Overall crop conditions are much improved from the prior year, with 73% of the U.S. crop rated in good or excellent condition by July 5.
Poor or very poor condition is estimated at 4%, down from 7% the previous year.
Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi show improvements in crop conditions, though Missouri faced the most adverse weather impacts.

Supplies and Use

Total U.S. rice supplies in 2020/21 are projected at 285.3 million cwt, up 8% from the prior year.
Domestic and residual use is forecast at 143.5 million cwt, up 3% from the prior year, due to increased imports and production.
Long-grain domestic and residual use is expected at 109.0 million cwt, up 4% from the prior year.
Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is forecast at 34.5 million cwt, up slightly from the prior year.

Exports

Total U.S. rice exports are projected at 98.0 million cwt, down 1% from the previous forecast but 4% above the prior year.
Long-grain exports are forecast at 70.0 million cwt, down 1% from the previous forecast, due to increased competition from South American exporters.
Medium- and short-grain exports are expected at 28.0 million cwt, up 2% from the previous forecast, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounting for two-thirds of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports.

Ending Stocks

Ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 43.8 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous forecast and 46% above the prior year.
Long-grain ending stocks are expected at 25.0 million cwt, up 2.3 million cwt from the previous forecast and 76% above the prior year.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 16.8 million cwt, up 22% from the previous forecast and 10% below the prior year.

U.S. Import and Export Trends

Imports are expected to rise to a record high in 2020/21, at 34.6 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Thailand is the main supplier, contributing 28.0 million cwt of long-grain imports, with jasmine rice (long-grain) making up the majority.
China is expected to account for at least a third of U.S. medium- and short-grain imports, with Puerto Rico purchasing all of this rice due to discounted prices.
Import share of U.S. domestic use has increased to 25%, the highest on record.

U.S. Price Forecasts

Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for 2020/21 are projected at $12.70 per cwt for all rice, down 20 cents from the previous forecast.
Long-grain SAFP is forecast at $11.60 per cwt, down 40 cents from the revised 2019/20 level.
California medium- and short-grain SAFP is expected at $18.30 per cwt, unchanged from the previous forecast.
U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $16.10 per cwt, up 10 cents from the previous forecast but 10 cents below the 2019/20 revised level.

International Outlook

Global Production

Global rice production for 2020/21 is forecast at 502.6 million tons (milled basis), up 1.5% from the prior year and the highest on record.
Harvested area is expected to increase to 163.0 million hectares, the second-highest on record.
Key producers include China, Indonesia, Thailand, the U.S., and Australia, with China and Thailand showing the largest production increases.
Brazil and the Philippines are projected to have smaller harvests, with Brazil’s area reaching the lowest in over 90 years.

Global Consumption and Residual Use

Global consumption and residual use are forecast at 498.5 million tons, up 2% from the prior year and a record high.
China and India account for the majority of the increase, with China’s industrial use contributing significantly.
Japan, South Korea, and Nigeria are projected to see declines in consumption and residual use due to diet diversification and economic factors.

Global Ending Stocks

Global ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 185.8 million tons, up 2% from the prior year and the highest on record.
China and India are expected to account for 63% and 20% of global ending stocks, respectively.
U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise 46% to 1.4 million tons.

Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio

The global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 37.3%, matching the 2000/01 record and up slightly from 37.0% in 2019/20.

Key Takeaways

U.S. rice production is expected to increase by 2% in 2020/21, with long-grain driving the growth.
Imports are rising to record levels, while exports are slightly lower due to increased competition and price sensitivity in key markets.
Domestic use is increasing, supported by higher imports and larger production.
Ending stocks are expected to rise significantly, with long-grain showing the most improvement.
Global rice production and consumption are both at record highs, with China and India leading the increase.
Global stocks-to-use ratio is at a historical high, indicating surplus supply in the international market.

展开完整摘要

试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载