> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Innovation Capabilities Outlook 2026 # Innovation Capabilities Outlook 2026 This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. The user is allowed to reproduce, distribute, adapt, translate and publicly perform this publication, including for commercial purposes, without explicit permission, provided that the content is accompanied by an acknowledgement that WIPO is the source and that it is clearly indicated if changes were made to the original content. Suggested citation: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) (2026). Innovation Capabilities Outlook 2026. Geneva: WIPO. DOI: 10.34667/tind.59097 Adaptation/translation/derivatives should not carry any official emblem or logo, unless they have been approved and validated by WIPO. Please contact us via the WIPO website to obtain permission. 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Box 18 CH-1211 Geneva 20 Switzerland ISBN: 978-92-805-3894-6 (print) ISBN: 978-92-805-3895-3(online) # Contents # Acknowledgments 6 # Executive summary 7 # Introducing the global network of innovation capabilities 8 Four dimensions reveal patterns in the innovation landscape 9 Innovation capabilities vary in complexity 11 Power is in connections 11 Connections reveal ecosystem maturity 12 Innovation capabilities are dynamic 13 # Is the world leveraging its innovation capabilities? 14 Global innovation expansion and growing complexity 14 Who is taking a strategic approach to capability development? 22 So, is the world leveraging its innovation capabilities? 26 # Where are the opportunities for innovation? 27 A virtuous cycle: stronger ecosystems unlock more opportunities 27 Where innovation potential remains untapped 31 Opportunities as a road map for strategic innovation policy 36 # Glossary 37 # Bibliography 39 # Acknowledgments The Innovation Capabilities Outlook 2026 was developed through a partnership between WIPO and Harvard University's Growth Lab (HGL), under the general direction of Daren Tang (Director General) and Marco Alemán (Assistant Director General). The report was supervised by Carsten Fink (Chief Economist) and Ricardo Hausmann (founder and Director of HGL), prepared by a team led by Julio Raffo (Head of Innovation Economy Section, WIPO) and Muhammed A. Yildirim (Director of Academic Research, HGL). The team included Christian Chacua, Matte Hartog, Shreyas Gadgin Matha and Federico Moscatelli. The team gratefully acknowledges the valuable contributions and feedback from Eduardo Hernandez-Rodriguez, Sergio Palomeque, Jennifer Brandt, Elias Collette and members of the Growth Lab. Finally, gratitude is due to editorial and design colleagues in the Publications and Design Section for leading the production of the report. # Executive summary Knowledge is expanding globally, yet most countries struggle to harness this growth effectively. Global innovation remains strikingly concentrated: a small number of leading economies account for the vast majority of scientific publications, patents, trademarks, and advanced exports, whereas most contribute less than 1 percent to any innovation dimension. Success does not require a big push in all fields, but instead lies in strategically diversifying into complex skills while at the same time maintaining intensity in high-value areas – a balancing act that only the most sophisticated innovation ecosystems have mastered. # Mapping the global innovation landscape The Innovation Capabilities Outlook (ICO) 2026 analyzes 2,508 innovation capabilities across four dimensions – science, technology, entrepreneurship, and production – using comprehensive datasets spanning 2001–2023. The analysis reveals that innovation emergence depends critically on connections between these four dimensions, with the most sophisticated capabilities emerging only in highly diversified ecosystems able to support complex, interdependent knowledge networks. # A tale of two innovation worlds Global innovation output has expanded dramatically, yet this growth remains highly uneven and concentrated in no more than 30 percent of the world's economies. Asian economies – led by China, India and Viet Nam – have mastered sophisticated capability development strategies, consistently achieving both smart diversification (gaining breadth and complexity simultaneously) and smart capability management (intensifying focus on high-value skills while protecting them with complementary knowledge). In contrast, many established and emerging economies struggle with this dual challenge: 46 percent of ecosystems have not meaningfully diversified, and complexity gains remain elusive for 70 percent of economies. # Strategic opportunities The ICO 2026 identifies substantial untapped potential – only 10 percent of economies fulfill their technological potential. Ecosystems collectively underperform by 339,000 technological innovations annually. Regional patterns reveal distinct strategic pathways: Europe possesses strong foundations, but struggles with technological translation; Asia shows balanced capabilities, but faces entrepreneurial commercialization challenges; and Africa should focus on foundational capability building while gradually targeting more complex activities. # Policy implications Innovation policy cannot rely on one-size-fits-all approaches. Success requires tailoring strategies to regional development levels, existing capability portfolios, and institutional contexts. Countries that align innovation investments with these evidence-based insights can break traditional development constraints and accelerate a transition toward knowledge-based competitiveness. The systematic nature both of diversification constraints and untapped potential suggests that targeted, level-appropriate interventions yield the highest probability of success. # Introducing the global network of innovation capabilities What drives innovation success? The answer is not in isolated breakthroughs, but in how different innovation capabilities connect and reinforce each other around the globe. Innovation is a multidimensional force encompassing various facets of human endeavor across economies and industries. Yet global innovation remains strikingly concentrated: a small number of leading economies account for the vast majority of advanced exports, trademarks, patents, and scientific publications, while most countries contribute less than 1 percent to any of these innovation dimensions (see Figure 1.1). Such a concentration reveals the existence of barriers preventing most economies from meaningfully participating in the global innovation system. International innovations are heavily concentrated Figure 1.1 Share of total international innovations by dimension, top 10 economies vs. rest of the world, 2023 Exports Trademarks Patents Publications Note: The colored portion represents the top 10 countries' share, while the gray portion represents all remaining economies. The four dimensions capture only international innovations. For exports, this means international trade; for trademarks, brands with foreign applicants; for patents, international patent families; for publications, SCOPUS indexed articles.. Source: WIPO, 2026. Innovation capabilities can help answer this challenge. They represent the demonstrated ability of economies and organizations to create competitive advantage in fields such as artificial intelligence or clean energy. These capabilities serve as the fundamental building blocks of innovation and, in addition, they help identify which economies excel in certain areas while revealing gaps and weaknesses elsewhere. For this reason, assessing capabilities across science, technology, entrepreneurship and production is essential for evidence-based policymaking. Yet many ecosystems struggle with imbalances between their innovation activities. Some economies excel at producing internationally recognized scientific research, but struggle to transform discoveries into commercial applications. Others contribute significantly to international production, but fail to develop the technological learning that drives innovation. Still others master individual technologies, but cannot scale them globally. These mismatches are both a challenge and an opportunity. Economies with unbalanced capability portfolios can benefit greatly from strategic guidance on where to focus limited resources to clear innovation roadblocks. Understanding these patterns empowers policymakers to make informed decisions about building more integrated and effective innovation ecosystems. # Four dimensions reveal patterns in the innovation landscape The outlook spans 2,508 distinct fields across four dimensions. Innovation ecosystems possess capabilities in these fields when they demonstrate sufficient specialization or output (see Box 1.1). Production - 862 fields. Manufacturing capabilities and scaling innovations from laboratory to market, encompassing advanced manufacturing, industrial processes, quality systems, and supply chain innovation. Entrepreneurship - 538 fields. Commercialization and market-oriented activities including venture creation, business model innovation, technology transfer, and ecosystem development. Technology - 480 fields. Applied research and development (R&D) focused on practical solutions, including information technology, biotechnology, materials science, and engineering applications. Science - 628 fields. Fundamental research and knowledge creation across physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics, and so on. # Capabilities derive from different areas of innovation Table 1.1 Innovation capability fields, by domain and dimension <table><tr><td>Dimension</td><td>Domain</td><td>Number of fields of innovation</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Note: Fields of innovation are grouped into customized domains for visualization purposes</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Machinery and transportation</td><td>160</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Wood, paper and textiles</td><td>131</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Medical and health sciences</td><td>128</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Base metals and metal products</td><td>112</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Chemicals and pharmaceuticals</td><td>112</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Plant products and food processing</td><td>112</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Social sciences</td><td>104</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Engines and transport</td><td>93</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Engineering and energy</td><td>90</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Research and technology</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Agricultural and environmental sciences</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Health</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Precision goods and miscellaneous</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Machines</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Food, beverages and tobacco</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Leisure and education</td><td>57</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Construction</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Chemicals</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Clothing</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Household equipment</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Plastics, rubber and leather</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Construction materials and precious goods</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Business and economics</td><td>46</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Computer science</td><td>46</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Physical sciences and mathematics</td><td>46</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Life sciences</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Instruments</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Raw materials and mining</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Business services</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Transportation</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Consumer</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>ICTs</td><td>32</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Chemicals</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Psychology and neuroscience</td><td>31</td></tr><tr><td>Production</td><td>Agriculture and live animals</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Materials</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Biopharma</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Electronics</td><td>27</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Civil engineering</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Processing and environmental</td><td>26</td></tr><tr><td>Science</td><td>Chemistry and pharmaceuticals</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Semiconductors and optics</td><td>16</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Services</td><td>11</td></tr><tr><td>Technology</td><td>Audio-visual</td><td>7</td></tr><tr><td>Entrepreneurial</td><td>Agriculture</td><td>4</td></tr></table> Note: Fields of innovation are grouped into customized domains for visualization purposes. Source: WIPO, 2026. Granular classification (see Table 1.1) enables detailed analysis of specialization patterns, capability gaps, and emerging innovation areas across different regions and economies. # Box 1.1 Data sources and methodology The report measures innovation capabilities using four complementary datasets that capture the industrial, entrepreneurial, technological, and scientific dimensions of innovation. The analysis covers the period 2001-2023 at economy and field levels. While this economy-level focus enables global trend analysis, innovation policy design may require more disaggregated analysis at the regional, cluster and city levels. The timeframe, though substantial, may not capture complete innovation cycles which can span decades from initial research to market implementation. # International trade data Production capabilities are assessed through manufactured exports using the UN COMTRADE database, tracking distinct product fields grouped into production domains. The focus on internationally traded products ensures a minimum threshold of competitiveness and innovation content, as products must meet international market standards. # International trademark data Entrepreneurial innovation is captured through international trademark filings from the WIPO Global Brand Database, covering granted applications across multiple jurisdictions. Rather than relying solely on the Nice Classification system, the analysis employs clustering algorithms to identify innovation fields that better reflect actual market and technological relationships. This provides more nuanced insights into entrepreneurial activities and commercialization patterns. # International patent data Technological advancement is measured through international patent families, combining data from World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) patent databases and the European Patent Office (EPO) PATSTAT. Analysis focuses on first filings of granted patent families that sought protection beyond the applicant's economy of origin, ensuring international relevance. Patents are classified using 4-digit International Patent Classification (IPC) codes, providing detailed technological categorization. Economytem assignment is based on inventors' addresses. # Scientific publication data Scientific progress is captured through the OpenAlex database, focusing on publications indexed in Scopus. To ensure quality and impact, the analysis concentrates on the 10 percent most cited papers. Scientific publications are grouped into innovation fields using clustering algorithms that identify thematic relationships. Economies are assigned publications based on authors' institutional affiliations. # Innovation capabilities vary in complexity Whereas some capabilities can flourish in specialized economies, the most sophisticated innovation capabilities – such as advanced biotechnology, quantum computing or next-generation artificial intelligence – emerge only within highly diversified innovation ecosystems. These complex capabilities are inherently interdependent, requiring a dense web of supporting capabilities, institutions and knowledge domains to function effectively. Economic complexity methodology helps to quantify the extent of capabilities that need to be present within an ecosystem. Complex capabilities cannot simply be transplanted or developed in isolation. When economies attempt to leapfrog into complex capabilities without first building the necessary foundation of related knowledge and supporting infrastructure, these efforts typically result in failed investments and unrealized potential. This complexity creates a natural hierarchy in the innovation landscape, where the most valuable and transformative capabilities tend to concentrate within ecosystems that have systematically developed broad, interconnected innovation foundations. Just as a symphony requires different instruments working in harmony, breakthrough innovations emerge when dimensions interconnect (see Figure 1.2). Strong science-technology links indicate effective translation of basic research into applied innovations. Robust entrepreneurship-production connections suggest efficient commercialization pathways bringing innovations to market. Innovation capabilities form an intricate network of connections, with complex fields at the core Figure 1.2 The innovation capability space, 2023 $\bullet$ Production capabilities $\bullet$ Entrepreneurial capabilities $\bullet$ Technological capabilities $\bullet$ Scientific capabilities Note: Innovation capabilities are located spatially based on how often they coincide within the same innovation ecosystem. Size refers to the complexity of the field. Revealed links are limited to the highest proximity of each node. Source: WIPO, 2026. Innovation ecosystems excelling at fostering interdimensional connections consistently demonstrate superior innovation performance. These connections facilitate knowledge spillovers, reduce transaction costs in innovation processes, and enable rapid capability recombination to address emerging challenges and opportunities. Connection strength indicates how developed an innovation system has become. Developing ecosystems often exhibit strong individual dimensional capabilities, but weak cross-dimensional linkages, limiting their ability to translate innovative potential into competitive advantage. Mature innovation systems demonstrate dense connection networks enabling rapid knowledge transfer and collaborative innovation across boundaries (see Figure 1.3). The complexity of an innovation ecosystem is related to income level Figure 1.3 Ecosystem complexity and GDP per capita, 2023 Note: Ecosystem complexity is calculated by looking at overall complexity of innovation capabilities across the four dimensions of this study. GDP = gross domestic product, K = thousand, M = million, B = billion. Sources: WIPO, 2026, World Bank, 2024. # Innovation capabilities are dynamic Innovation capabilities evolve through investment, learning and strategic positioning within global knowledge networks. Understanding and strengthening these interdimensional connections represents a key strategic priority for innovation policy and investment decisions, because these linkages ultimately determine an innovation system's capacity to create value from its constituent capabilities. The Innovation Capabilities Outlook maps these global knowledge networks, revealing where capabilities concentrate, how they evolve, and where the greatest opportunities lie. # Is the world leveraging its innovation capabilities? Global innovation capabilities are expanding, yet most economies struggle to harness this growth effectively. Success requires a strategic balancing act: diversifying into complex fields while at the same time maintaining intensity in high-value areas. In the $21^{\text{st}}$ century, economic competitiveness increasingly depends on the ability to create, adapt and commercialize new knowledge (see Figure 2.1). Innovation ecosystems that fail to build innovation capabilities risk being relegated to low-value production activities while innovation leaders capture the highest economic returns. # Global innovation expansion and growing complexity Since 2000, economic growth has increased alongside innovations per capita across exports, trademarks, and scientific publications, though growth in patents has been more modest. This upward trajectory reflects the global shift toward knowledge-based economies where innovation capabilities increasingly determine national competitiveness. International innovations have grown since 2000, following economic growth Figure 2.1 Evolution of innovations per capita and GDP growth, 2001-2023 Note: Indicators are expressed as growth rates, indexed at 2001 values. GDP = gross domestic product. Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2026. However, growth has been highly uneven across countries (see Table 2.1). While some economies have expanded dramatically – with China showing a 62-fold growth rate in scientific publications and 65-fold increase in entrepreneurial activities, and the Republic of Korea demonstrating an over 12-fold entrepreneurial growth – established leaders like the United States of America (US), Japan and European countries have seen modest gains, typically only doubling or tripling output. This divergence suggests a fundamental restructuring, with Asian emerging economies rapidly building innovation capabilities while traditional leaders face the challenge of sustaining growth from an already high baseline. China, the Republic of Korea and India have consistently grown across all four dimensions of international innovations per capita, placing Asia as the main origin of international innovations Table 2.1 Innovation growth per capita, by economy and dimension, 2001-2023 <table><tr><td></td><td>Economy</td><td>GDP</td><td>Trademarks</td><td>Exports</td><td>Scientific publications</td><td>Patents</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>China</td><td>5.2×</td><td>65.8×</td><td>6.4×</td><td>62.0×</td><td>28.4×</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>United States</td><td>1.4×</td><td>1.4×</td><td>1.4×</td><td>1.0×</td><td>1.1×</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Japan</td><td>1.2×</td><td>1.7×</td><td>1.1×</td><td>1.1×</td><td>1.6×</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Germany</td><td>1.2×</td><td>1.1×</td><td>1.7×</td><td>1.8×</td><td>0.9×</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Republic of Korea</td><td>1.9×</td><td>11.9×</td><td>2.4×</td><td>6.0×</td><td>5.3×</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>United Kingdom</td><td>1.2×</td><td>1.5×</td><td>0.9×</td><td>1.3×</td><td>0.9×</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>France</td><td>1.2×</td><td>1.2×</td><td>1.1×</td><td>1.3×</td><td>1.0×</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Italy</td><td>1.0×</td><td>1.8×</td><td>1.6×</td><td>3.0×</td><td>1.3×</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>India</td><td>3.0×</td><td>6.9×</td><td>4.7×</td><td>9.7×</td><td>5.8×</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Canada</td><td>1.2×</td><td>3.5×</td><td>1.1×</td><td>1.4×</td><td>1.2×</td></tr></table> Additional 175 rows not shown. Note: Innovation ecosystems are sorted by their global contribution to innovations across the four dimensions of this report. GDP = gross domestic product. To access and search the complete set of data go to the digital edition: https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/innovation-capabilities-outlook-2026/en/index.html Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. Beyond volume, innovations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and interdisciplinary (see Figure 2.2). The average international trademark now covers nine fields of innovation – for example, a smartphone brand spanning electronics, software, telecommunications, and entertainment – while scientific publications span four fields, for example, artificial intelligence research combines computer science, neuroscience, ethics, and statistics. Patents remain more focused at 1.5 fields on average, typically addressing specific technical solutions. This cross-field integration suggests that modern innovations increasingly require diverse knowledge capabilities. Scientific and entrepreneurial innovations are becoming more integrated, combining increasingly diverse innovation capabilities Figure 2.2 Number of capabilities per innovation, 2001-2023 — Entrepreneurial capabilities per trademark — Technological capabilities per patent Scientific capabilities per publication Note: Calculation for the production dimension is not available due to the way the data source is built. Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. In sum, while innovations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and global innovation capacity continues to expand, growth remains highly uneven. This raises a deeper strategic question: beyond generating individual innovations, are economies successfully building and leveraging their capabilities so as to adapt to a rapidly evolving knowledge economy? # Most innovation ecosystems have diversified their capabilities; however, many are falling behind Modern innovation increasingly depends on the diversity of knowledge capabilities within innovation ecosystems. While knowledge embodied in tools, codes and processes can move across borders, tacit knowledge, and the ability to understand and combine this knowledge, resides within the human mind and thus subject to natural limitations. Historically, when humanity's knowledge base was smaller, brilliant individuals like Da Vinci, Newton, and Descartes were able to master multiple disciplines simultaneously. Today, rapid knowledge growth makes such broad individual mastery impossible. The solution has been collective specialization: individuals develop deep expertise in narrow domains while collaborating in diverse teams. A breakthrough in artificial intelligence, for instance, requires that specialists in computer science, neuroscience, ethics, and engineering work together. Hence, individuals specialize, but ecosystems diversify. At the innovation ecosystem level, this translates to a diversity of capabilities. Successful innovation ecosystems are characterized by high diversity – they can combine specialized knowledge to tackle complex, interdisciplinary challenges (see Box 2.1). # Box 2.1 When does an innovation ecosystem master a field of innovation? Determining whether an innovation ecosystem has mastered a specific field can be achieved through either of two approaches. Absolute specialization identifies global leaders – like the United States in artificial intelligence research or China in manufacturing technologies. Alternatively, relative specialization reveals focused excellence – like Denmark's strength in wind energy or Switzerland's pharmaceutical expertise, where smaller ecosystems excel disproportionately in specific fields compared to their overall innovation activity. # Most innovation ecosystems now master more diverse innovation capabilities Figure 2.3 Average diversity of innovation ecosystems, by region, 2001-2023 Central Asia Note: Regional diversity is weighted by economy population. Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. Diversification is happening globally, though unevenly (see Figure 2.3). More than half of innovation ecosystems worldwide – 54 percent – now master more diverse innovation capabilities than they did at the beginning of the century. The most dramatic transformation has occurred in East Asia, where economies have collectively expanded capability diversity from 25 percent to 64 percent of all tracked innovation fields over the past 23 years. This remarkable 39 percentage point increase represents the largest regional shift in innovation capability building of the modern era. The fact that 46 percent of innovation ecosystems have not significantly diversified their capabilities is not necessarily problematic. Strategic specialization in an economy's most competitive fields can be an effective path to short- and mid-term success. The critical question is whether ecosystems are developing higher-quality, more sophisticated capabilities over time – regardless of breadth. Figure 2.4 Average complexity of innovation ecosystems, by region, 2001-2023 Note: Regional complexity is weighted by economy population. Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. Once again, East Asia leads the transformation toward complex capabilities, with complexity levels that have surpassed those of Oceania and are closing the gap with Europe and Northern America (see Figure 2.4). African economies have made notable progress in building more sophisticated capabilities, though they remain significantly behind other regions. This pattern reinforces East Asia's emergence not just as a source of innovation volume, but as a region developing increasingly advanced innovation ecosystems. Population size influences but does not determine innovation capability diversity (see Table 2.2). Large developing economies like India leverage scale effectively, mastering nearly a third of all tracked fields, while Austria achieves 77 percent capability coverage with just nine million inhabitants. More revealing are comparisons between similarly-sized economies with vastly different outcomes. Brazil exhibits almost nine times Nigeria's capability diversity despite having a comparable population. Similarly, Japan demonstrates five times Mexico's diversity despite a similar demographic scale. These disparities reveal that factors beyond population – including educational system, institutional quality and innovation policies – play a decisive role. Success depends less on demographic advantages and more on strategic choices about knowledge infrastructure investment. Table 2.2 Diversity share and population, by economy, 2023 <table><tr><td colspan="2">Economy</td><td>Population</td><td>Diversity</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>China</td><td>1.4B</td><td>92.4%</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>United States</td><td>333.3M</td><td>89.8%</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Germany</td><td>84.1M</td><td>88.7%</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Netherlands (Kingdom of the)</td><td>17.7M</td><td>80.3%</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Italy</td><td>58.9M</td><td>79.5%</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>France</td><td>67.9M</td><td>78.1%</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Austria</td><td>9M</td><td>77.3%</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>United Kingdom</td><td>67M</td><td>74.7%</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Sweden</td><td>10.5M</td><td>74.5%</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Spain</td><td>47.6M</td><td>73.2%</td></tr></table> Additional 183 rows not shown. Note: Innovation ecosystems are sorted by diversity, measured as the share of different capabilities present within the given ecosystem. M = million, B = billion. To access and search the complete set of data go to the digital edition:https:// www.wipo.int/web-publications/innovation-capabilities-outlook-2026/en/index.html Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. Building innovation capabilities proves significantly more challenging than achieving economic growth (see Figure 2.5). While 68 percent of economies have increased GDP per capita over the past two decades and a similar share (66 percent) achieved greater diversity, only 30 percent managed to increase innovation complexity – revealing complexity to be the most elusive development goal. Most economies get wealthier every year, but struggle to simultaneously increase international innovation output, upgrade and diversify capabilities Figure 2.5 Share of economies with economic growth, diversity growth, and complexity growth, 2014-2023 Note: GDP = gross domestic product. Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. Year-on-year progress tells an even starker story. In the last decade, excluding the 2020 pandemic, GDP has grown in 55-65 percent of economies annually. Diversity gains have proved harder to achieve, reaching only 35-50 percent of ecosystems each year. Complexity improvements are the rarest to achieve, occurring in just 30-40 percent of countries annually. These patterns suggest that while economic growth remains challenging, developing sophisticated innovation capabilities requires the sustained, strategic effort that most economies struggle to maintain consistently. # The most complex capabilities are now harder to get Innovation capabilities have become increasingly concentrated among a small group of leading economies. Over the past decade, most global innovation capabilities have concentrated in just 30 percent of economies, reversing earlier trends toward broader diffusion. However, capabilities remain more democratically distributed than economic wealth – they are three times more spread than GDP and six times more spread than population. Most capability diffusion occurred during the first decade of this century; the process has since significantly slowed. Despite this deceleration, several economies have successfully entered the global innovation landscape as relevant players: Brazil, India, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Malta, Morocco, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Tunisia, Ukraine and Viet Nam. These newcomers demonstrate that capability building remains possible, though increasingly difficult in today's concentrated innovation environment. Technological fields remain the most concentrated capabilities, heavily present in just 4.5 percent of all economies Figure 2.6 Capability diffusion, by dimension, 2001-2023 Note: Diffusion is expressed as a percentage of economies that concentrate most innovations in each dimension of innovation. Source: WIPO, 2026. Most of these newcomers inserted themselves by developing entrepreneurial and scientific capabilities (see Figure 2.6). Scientific (7.4 percent of ecosystems) and entrepreneurial capabilities (7.7 percent) became less concentrated over time, enabling broader global participation. In contrast, technology (4.5 percent) and production capabilities (5.2 percent) remained more exclusive among established leaders. Technological capabilities remain the most complex innovation field and are increasingly diverging from the other dimensions (see Figure 2.7). Over the last five years, technology complexity has accelerated beyond other fields, creating a widening gap with scientific, entrepreneurial, and production capabilities. Interestingly, scientific and production domain complexity has actually decreased, making these capabilities less dependent on related knowledge for mastery. While these capabilities remain relatively rare globally, they have become more accessible as standalone competencies. This trend suggests that while technology development requires ever-deeper interconnected knowledge, other innovation domains are becoming more modular and independently acquirable. Technological capabilities remain the most complex set of capabilities, and are breaking away from other fields Figure 2.7 Average complexity of innovation capabilities, by domain, 2018 vs 2023 Note: Domains are ordered by the average complexity indexes of the fields they covered in 2023. Percentages indicate the change in complexity between 2018 and 2023. ICT = information and communication technology. Source: WIPO, 2026. # Among the 100 fastest-growing innovation fields, 40 percent represent complex capabilities, but exhibit vastly different diffusion patterns across ecosystems (see Table 2.3). Some high-growth fields are concentrating among fewer players, while others are spreading to new economies. The internet of things exemplify concentration. This complex technology field has grown by 4.1 times over the past five years, yet is present in fewer innovation ecosystems, suggesting an increasing specialization among leading players. Conversely, the scientific field related to the impact and application of artificial intelligence demonstrates a broader diffusion, growing 3.6 times and spreading to 30 percent more economies. This field is, surprisingly, at the lower end of the complexity spectrum. This is because, much like many capabilities within the realm of scientific progress in artificial intelligence, it has diffused into economies that are not highly diversified and yet able to contribute significantly. These contrasting patterns reveal that rapid innovation growth does not guarantee widespread adoption. The most complex emerging technologies tend to concentrate among established leaders, while moderately complex fields can diffuse more broadly across the global innovation landscape. Of the top 100 fastest growing fields, 40 percent are complex capabilities Table 2.3 Top 10 fastest growing fields, 2018-2023 <table><tr><td></td><td>Domain</td><td>Field</td><td>▼ Field growth</td><td>Capability diffusion</td><td>Complexity ranking</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Medical and health sciences</td><td>Studies on COVID-19 impacts and responses</td><td>7.9×</td><td>1.3×</td><td>2429th</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Semiconductors and optics</td><td>Light-emitting semiconductors</td><td>6.9×</td><td>1.2×</td><td>14th</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Semiconductors and optics</td><td>Light-sensitive semiconductors</td><td>4.4×</td><td>1.3×</td><td>26th</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>ICTs</td><td>IoT technology</td><td>4.1×</td><td>0.9×</td><td>417th</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Computer science</td><td>Impact and applications of artificial intelligence and technology</td><td>3.6×</td><td>1.4×</td><td>2022nd</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Business and economics</td><td>Impacts of economic factors and digitalization on global development</td><td>3.6×</td><td>1.3×</td><td>2418th</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Semiconductors and optics</td><td>Inorganic semiconductors</td><td>3.6×</td><td>1.2×</td><td>38th</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>ICTs</td><td>Computer vision</td><td>2.8×</td><td>1.2×</td><td>1038th</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>ICTs</td><td>Computational chemistry</td><td>2.8×</td><td>0.8×</td><td>287th</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Social sciences</td><td>Vaccine hesitancy and its global health implications</td><td>2.5×</td><td>0.9×</td><td>2466th</td></tr></table> Additional 90 rows not shown. Note: Innovation fields are sorted by overall growth since 2018. Diffusion refers to the spread of capabilities to new innovation ecosystems. Complexities are ranked from with 1 being the most complex field. ICT = information and communication technology. To access and search the complete set of data go to the digital edition: https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/innovation-capabilities-outlook-2026/en/index.html Source: WIPO, 2026. These divergent patterns highlight a critical strategic challenge: not all diversification is created equal. Simply expanding into more innovation fields may prove insufficient if those capabilities remain isolated or lack the complexity needed for sustained competitiveness. The question becomes whether economies can strategically navigate this landscape – identifying which emerging capabilities to target based on their existing knowledge base and the incremental complexity required for successful adoption. # Who is taking a strategic approach to capability development? # Strategic capability diversification as a path to development Strategic capability diversification requires simultaneously gaining diversity while increasing ecosystem complexity – a significantly more challenging endeavor than simple field expansion. The principle of relatedness, where economies naturally diversify into fields closest to their existing capabilities, creates a potential trap for developing ecosystems. Those starting with low diversity and complexity may find themselves systematically acquiring only low-complexity capabilities, perpetuating their position in the global innovation hierarchy. This challenge is compounded by path dependency patterns visible across different development levels (see Figure 2.8). Less diversified ecosystems tend to acquire capabilities very close to their current capabilities, while more diverse ecosystems can successfully master fields further from their existing knowledge base. Diversified economies are more likely to make strategic leaps, whereas low diversified economies tend to be more path dependent Figure 2.8 Ecosystem diversity and distance to new attained capabilities, 2018-2023 Note: Distance is measured by the share of related fields that the economy did not have when mastering a new capability. High distance means that the ecosystem acquired fields that were not necessarily the safest option. M = million, B = billion Source: WIPO, 2026; World Bank, 2024. However, there is a notable heterogeneity among diversification strategies. Fast-growing economies like India and Poland are managing to leapfrog into more distant, complex fields, while others like Australia and Chile are taking a more incremental, step-by-step diversification approach. Measuring smart diversification reveals concerning trends in global capability building (see Figure 2.9). The number of economies simultaneously gaining both diversity and complexity has declined over the past decade, whereas those losing both dimensions in the same year has increased – suggesting that many innovation ecosystems are struggling to navigate the twin challenges of breadth and sophistication. Figure 2.9 Share of economies by type of capability development strategy, 2002-2023 Note: Strategic diversification requires that the economy gains diversity and complexity during the same period. Source: WIPO, 2026. However, recent data suggests potential signs of recovery after 2020, hinting that some ecosystems may be adapting their strategies to overcome these dual development challenges. Fast growing economies have consistently diversified into complex capabilities over the past decade Table 2.4 Capability diversificaiton strategy by count of years, by economy, 2014-2023 <table><tr><td></td><td>Economy</td><td>Gained both</td><td>Only gained complexity</td><td>Only gained diversity</td><td>Neither</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>China</td><td>8/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Indonesia</td><td>8/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Viet Nam</td><td>8/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Colombia</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Costa Rica</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>3/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Côte d'lvoire</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Ghana</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Guinea</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>3/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>India</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Oman</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td></tr></table> Additional 130 rows not shown. Note: Innovation ecosystems sorted by the number of years in which they diversified and gained complex capabilities. To access and search the complete set of data go to the digital edition: https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/innovation-capabilities-outlook-2026/en/index.html Source: WIPO, 2026. The most successful performers are those fast-growing economies that achieved consistent smart diversification throughout the decade (see Table 2.4). China, Indonesia and Viet Nam excelled with simultaneous diversity and complexity gains in eight out of 10 years. In contrast, economies like South Africa and Austria frequently experienced simultaneous losses in both dimensions. Such economies might benefit from more strategic capability targeting, focusing on acquiring capabilities that bridge existing competencies with higher-complexity domains. However, the data reveals another strategic pattern: highly diversified economies like the United States, despite not having gained any new capabilities, increased complexity most years by shedding lower-value ones while retaining the most rewarding competencies. This suggests that beyond acquiring new capabilities, successful innovation ecosystems must also strategically manage their existing portfolio of capabilities. # Deepening specialization as complement to diversification Deepening specialization involves strategically focusing resources on the most complex, high-value capabilities while protecting them with complementary knowledge that enables them to flourish. Unlike diversification strategies that seek breadth, this approach emphasizes depth and interconnectedness – identifying which capabilities generate the highest returns and ensuring they remain viable through supporting competencies. Consider biotechnology: mastering genetic engineering requires not just laboratory skills, but complementary capabilities in regulatory compliance, clinical research, data analytics, and ethical frameworks. Economies that abandon these supporting fields may find their core biotechnology capabilities weakened or unsustainable. This management approach explains how established innovation leaders can maintain competitiveness despite losing some of their diversity – they strategically concentrate on their most sophisticated capabilities while maintaining the ecosystem of knowledge that sustains them. Only a few economies managed both to increase intensity in their most complex capabilities and protect them at the same time Figure 2.10 Share of economies by type of specialization strategy, 2014-2023 Note: Strategic specialization requires that the economy specializes in high value fields and gains complexity during the same period. Source: WIPO, 2026. Deepening specialization is achievable but challenging. Every year, around 40 percent of innovation ecosystems successfully increase intensity in their most complex capabilities while simultaneously gaining overall complexity – demonstrating the dual focus required for sophisticated innovation leadership (see Figure 2.10). However, this balance proves fragile during crisis periods. The 2020 pandemic created a notable disruption, forcing most economies to choose between specializing in existing capabilities or improving complexity, but not both simultaneously. Fortunately, performance had stabilized again by 2022, suggesting that capability management disruptions during crises may be temporary rather than structural. Table 2.5 Specialization strategy by count of years, by economy, 2014-2023 <table><tr><td></td><td>Economy</td><td>Gained both</td><td>Only gained complexity</td><td>Only specialized</td><td>Neither</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>China</td><td>8/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>India</td><td>8/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Viet Nam</td><td>8/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Cambodia</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Côte d'Ivoire</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Indonesia</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Sri Lanka</td><td>7/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Benin</td><td>6/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>3/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Oman</td><td>6/10 year/s</td><td>2/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td><td>1/10 year/s</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Rwanda</td><td>6/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>0/10 year/s</td><td>4/10 year/s</td></tr></table> Additional 130 rows not shown. Note: Innovation ecosystems sorted by the number of years in which they both prio