英文_Bernstein_欧洲生物制药_全球疫苗入门_预防永远是最好的药物_112页_22mb

European Biopharmaceuticals

Key Message: Valuation and Recommendations

Vaccines Industry Overview

• Highest Entry Barriers: High regulations, complex manufacturing, strong intellectual property, producing ~$68bn by 2034 with 4% CAGR (Bernstein 2025)
• Stock Market Exposure: Sanofi (Outperform; €124 PT) and GSK (Outperform; £2,290 PT) are best exposure via oligopoly structure
• Valuation:
  • Sanofi: €124 PT (10x PE26); focuses on Dupixent, vaccines, pharma pipeline
  • GSK: £2,290 PT (7x FY26 P/E); HIV pharma, Blenrep, Shingrix vaccine revenue
  • Pfizer: $30 PT; market-perform due to LOE exposure, refocus on pharma
  • Merck & Co: $95 PT; cautious due to Keytruda LOE
  • Moderna: $28 PT; modest growth via vaccine diversification

Detailed Vaccine Analysis

1. Meningitis & Pneumococcal Vaccines

   • Market Dynamics: Declining R&D/Cost due to past vaccines' effect on wild-type strains
   • Examples: Shingrix (GSK) for shingles, PPSV23 for general protection
   • GSK: Strong Shingrix growth in US (>€3.4bn revenue potential), adjuvant technology advantage

2. RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) Vaccines

   • Commercial Opportunities: Significant unmet need in infants, elderly adults
   • Examples: Arexvy (GSK), Abrysvo (Pfizer), Beyfortus (Sanofi)
   • Recent Developments: First marketed RSV vaccines secured approvals in 2023-24

3. HPV (Human Papillomavirus) Vaccine

   • Leading Player: Gardasil/Gardasil 9 (Merck) with $8.6bn revenue (China + US drivers)
   • Market Expansion: Targeting >90% female coverage by 2030 to eliminate cervical cancer

Key Pillars of Value

• Cost-Effectiveness: Preventive healthcare delivers superior value vs. treatment costs
• Intellectual Property: Barriers limit generic competition even post-patent expiry
• Regulatory Complexity: Stringent approval processes requiring large-scale clinical trials

Conclusion

The vaccines sector maintains high entry barriers and value proposition due to:

• Regulatory demands lowering side effects
• Complex manufacturing requiring specialized facilities
• Strong IP protection ensuring sustained revenue streams against wild-type strains

References:

• Justin Smith, Florent Cespedes, Courtney Breen, Woody Polglase (BERNSTEIN) - Global Vaccines Primer details (June 2025)