2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Lithuania_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_Staff_Report_Information_Annex_Public_Information_Notice_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_57页_1mb

2013 Article IV Consultation Summary: Republic of Lithuania

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV consultation with Lithuania, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic developments, policies, and outlook. The consultation focused on macroeconomic rebalancing, fiscal policy, financial stability, competitiveness, and the implications of the country's openness to the global economy.

Main Views and Key Information

Macroeconomic Rebalancing

• Lithuania has made significant progress in macroeconomic rebalancing since the 2008-09 crisis.
• The current account and fiscal deficits have decreased, with the fiscal deficit falling from -9.4% of GDP in 2009 to an estimated -3% in 2012.
• The real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals.
• The unit labor cost (ULC) has decreased, contributing to restored competitiveness and an export-led recovery.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth is expected to moderate to 3% in 2013 from 3.6% in 2012, due to the unwinding of the bumper harvest's effect.
• Over the medium term, growth should rise toward its potential of around 3.75% of GDP, but this depends on investment recovery.
• Risks remain on the downside, including renewed financial stress in Europe, weak growth in key trading partners, and potential wage-driven competitiveness erosion.

Fiscal Policy

• The fiscal deficit is projected to decrease to 2.5% of GDP in 2013, which is seen as appropriate to balance recovery support with further consolidation.
• Fiscal consolidation has mainly occurred on the expenditure side, but future efforts should focus on the revenue side to build fiscal space.
• Lithuania has significant scope to increase capital and wealth taxes, as well as broaden tax bases, to generate more revenue.

Financial Stability

• The banking system, largely foreign-owned, is well-capitalized and liquid, with regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets at 14.2% in 2012.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) have declined to 13.9% of total loans in 2012, but some domestic banks still require intervention.
• The Bank of Lithuania intervened in two domestic banks and two credit unions, highlighting the importance of effective supervision.

Credit Growth

• Credit growth has remained stagnant, partly due to uncertainty, risk aversion, and high NPLs.
• The loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio is at 120%, indicating continued reliance on foreign funding.
• Improving the resolution of NPLs could help ease credit supply constraints and support investment.

Competitiveness

• Maintaining competitiveness gains is essential for long-term growth.
• Improvements in the business climate and labor market policies (such as training and active labor market programs) are needed to boost investment and address skill mismatches.
• The export sector remains a key driver, but increased domestic demand could lead to a shift in the net export contribution.

Political Situation

• A new government took office in late 2012, emphasizing social inclusion, job creation, higher pensions and wages, and greater tax progressivity.
• Lithuania aims to adopt the euro in 2015 and will hold the EU presidency in 2013.

Key Policy Discussions

Securing Fiscal Space

• Continued fiscal consolidation is necessary to rebuild fiscal buffers, especially given the lack of monetary policy tools under the Currency Board Arrangement (CBA).
• The structural fiscal deficit should be reduced to create space for automatic stabilizers and reduce reliance on foreign financing.

Financial Sector Role

• The financial sector needs to support growth through sound credit expansion.
• The banking system must address legacy NPLs and improve lending standards to facilitate investment.

Competitiveness as a Growth Driver

• Competitiveness must be preserved through reforms in the labor market and business environment.
• There is a risk that rapid wage increases could outpace productivity growth, undermining competitiveness.

Euro Adoption

• Euro adoption is a key policy objective, and the authorities are committed to this goal.
• The transition to the euro will require further fiscal and structural reforms to ensure macroeconomic stability.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on March 7, 2013, outlining the economic developments and policy discussions.
• Informational Annex: Prepared by the IMF, providing additional context.
• Public Information Notice (PIN): Summarizes the Executive Board's views on the staff report.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Reflects the IMF's position on Lithuania's economic situation.
• Selected Issues Paper: Will be separately released, focusing on specific policy issues.

Risk Assessment

Conclusion

Lithuania has made progress in macroeconomic rebalancing, but the economy still faces challenges in sustaining growth and maintaining financial stability. The IMF emphasized the need for continued fiscal consolidation, improved credit growth, and competitiveness-preserving policies. The country's openness to the global economy means it remains vulnerable to external shocks, and the transition to the euro will require careful planning and structural reforms.