> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Xiaomi (1810 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights Xiaomi's 4Q25 results exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit growth of +7% and -24% YoY, respectively, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% and 10%. The performance was driven by a better smartphone mix, stronger smart EV operating income, and improved operating leverage. ### Main Points - **Smartphones**: Revenue declined by 14% YoY due to weaker shipments (-12%), but ASP increased by +7%. Gross margin dropped to 8.3% from 11.1% in 3Q25 due to higher memory costs. - **IoT and Lifestyle Products**: Revenue fell 20% YoY as the subsidy impact in China faded, though overseas markets showed strength in tablets and TVs. - **Smart EV**: Revenue surged by 122% YoY with 145k deliveries and a +6.6% ASP increase. Operating income reached RMB 1.1bn in 4Q25, up from RMB 0.7bn in 3Q25. - **Overall Performance**: Despite challenges in the smartphone and auto industries, Xiaomi is well-positioned to strengthen its leadership through premiumization, IoT expansion, and AI development. ## 2026 Outlook - **Smartphone Premiumization**: Xiaomi continues to focus on improving its premium product lineup. - **EV Model Launches**: The company aims for 550k EV deliveries in 2026 and plans for overseas expansion in 2027. - **IoT Expansion**: Xiaomi is targeting 1k overseas stores in 2026, up from 450 in FY25. The overseas TAM (excluding North America) is 3 times that of China. - **AI Investment**: Xiaomi plans to invest RMB60bn in AI over 2026–2028, with a clear roadmap to enhance its ecosystem through AI, OS, and chip capabilities. ## Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Target Price**: The new SOTP-based target price is HK$44.47, implying 29.5x and 23.9x P/E for FY26E and FY27E, respectively. - **Reiteration**: The analyst reiterates a "BUY" recommendation, citing strong growth potential in key segments and the company's strategic positioning. - **Current Price**: HK$32.68, with a 36.1% upside to the target price. ## Financial Overview ### Revenue Trends | Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |------|------------------|----------------| | FY23A| 365,903 | 35.0% | | FY24A| 457,287 | 25.0% | | FY25E| 522,288 | 14.2% | | FY26E| 613,077 | 17.4% | ### Adjusted Net Profit Trends | Year | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |------|------------------------------|----------------| | FY23A| 39,166.3 | 43.8% | | FY24A| 35,582.9 | -9.1% | | FY25E| 43,987.8 | 23.6% | ### EPS Trends | Year | Adjusted EPS (RMB) | |------|--------------------| | FY23A| 1.53 | | FY24A| 1.39 | | FY25E| 1.71 | ### P/E and P/B | Year | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | |------|---------|---------| | FY23A| 26.3 | 3.8 | | FY24A| 18.9 | 2.8 | | FY25E| 20.8 | 2.4 | | FY26E| 29.5 | 2.1 | ## Key Figures and Insights - **Gross Margin**: Improved slightly in 4Q25 to 20.8%, but declined in FY26E to 21.0%. - **Operating Margin**: Fell to 5.3% in 4Q25, down from 13.4% in 3Q25. - **Adj. Net Margin**: Dropped to 5.4% in 4Q25, down from 10.0% in 3Q25. - **Smart EV Revenue**: Expected to reach RMB 161,141 mn in FY26E, with a P/S multiple of 2.0x. ## Earnings Revisions | Metric | FY26E (RMB mn) | FY27E (RMB mn) | Change (%) | |----------------------|----------------|----------------|------------| | Revenue | 522,288 | 613,077 | +1% / +0% | | Gross Profit | 109,423 | 134,980 | -4% / -1% | | Operating Profit | 43,907 | 54,143 | -12% / -7% | | Adj. Net Profit | 35,583 | 43,988 | -9% / -4% | | Adj. EPS | 1.39 | 1.71 | -8% / -3% | ## Share Performance - **12-Month Price Performance**: - Absolute: -42.6% - Relative: -39.2% - **Market Cap**: HK$690,920.6 mn - **Avg 3-Month Turnover**: HK$5,895.3 mn - **52-Week High/Low**: HK$60.15 / HK$31.58 ## Shareholding Structure - **Lin Bin**: 8.6% - **Smart Mobile Holdings Ltd**: 8.6% ## Valuation Methodology (SOTP) | Business Segment | FY26E Rev (RMB mn) | % of FY26E Core NP | FY26E Core NP (RMB mn) | Valuation Method | Target Multiple (x) | Valuation (RMB mn) | |--------------------------|-------------------|--------------------|------------------------|------------------|--------------------|--------------------| | Smartphones | 179,360 | 19% | 5,417 | P/E | 18.0 | 97,507 | | AIoT and Lifestyle Products | 136,523 | 42% | 11,861 | P/E | 23.0 | 272,799 | | Internet Services | 40,300 | 40% | 11,390 | P/E | 25.0 | 284,750 | | Smart EV (FY26E) | 161,141 | -1% | - | P/S | 2.00 | 322,281 | | Total | - | - | - | - | - | 1,049,700 | ## Conclusion Despite weaker performance in the smartphone segment and a drop in gross margin, Xiaomi's 4Q25 results were better than feared, with strong growth in the Smart EV segment. The company is well-positioned for future growth with its premiumization strategy, IoT expansion, and AI initiatives. The updated SOTP-based target price of HK$44.47 reflects a 29.5x and 23.9x P/E for FY26E and FY27E, respectively, and the analyst reiterates a "BUY" recommendation. Key upcoming catalysts include new product launches and EV capacity expansion.