20250915-招银国际-iPhone_17_pre-order_takeaways_longer_delivery_lead_times_suggest_stronger_demand_YoY_4页_809kb

iPhone 17 Demand and Supply Chain Analysis

Summary

• The report, dated September 15, 2025, analyzes the iPhone 17 launch and its implications for the technology sector, highlighting stronger-than-anticipated consumer demand year-over-year (YoY).

• Key findings from pre-order tracking indicate longer delivery lead times (3-4 weeks in China, 2-3 weeks in the US) compared to iPhone 16, suggesting robust demand. This is attributed to improved affordability (US$100 lower price) and Chinese government subsidies, making iPhone 17 more accessible.

• iPhone 17 Pro Max models show the longest delivery times, reflecting ongoing premiumization trends, while the iPhone Air model has the shortest lead times, indicating weaker demand due to higher pricing and inferior specs.

• Delivery lead times in China are longer year-over-year but shorter than some other Asian markets. In India, premium models are seeing quicker uptake, accelerating the shift to higher-end devices.

• Despite concerns over macroeconomic factors, tariffs, and muted AI upgrades, the positive pre-order trends are expected to drive re-rating of Apple's supply chain stocks in the near term.

• Top picks and recommended stocks include Luxshare (BUY: key supplier for acoustics/haptics), AAC Tech (BUY: acoustics/haptics/VC), FIT Hon Teng (BUY: connectors/AirPods), and BYDE (BUY: iPhone casing). These companies are poised to benefit from iPhone 17 sales due to high Apple exposure and valuation upside.

• Market implications include positive impacts from tariff reductions (e.g., US-China deal implications) and continued growth drivers in AI server components and auto partnerships.

• Tariff-related events are noted, with potential benefits for the stock recommendations despite ongoing risks.

• Valuation data shows upside potential for selected stocks, with explicit recommendations and earnings expectations provided by the research team.