> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary # Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 - Asian IG credits were 1-3bps wider this morning. We saw better selling on higher-beta Chinese IG names like FRESHKs/ZHOSHK. JP insurance subs were 0.1-0.3pt firmer amid PB buying. VLLPM 29 was down by 1.4pts. SOFTBK 61-65 were 0.9-1.0pt lower. - MGMCHI: GGR market share rose to $16.1\%$ in FY25. See below. - INDYIJ: Moody's downgraded Indika Energy by one notch to B1 from Ba3 on strained credit metrics, worsened by increased capital spending at the Awak Mas project amid subdued thermal coal prices; outlook revised to stable from negative. INDYIJ 29s was 0.2pt lower this morning. # Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, PBs and banks continued to buy front-end FRNs to park cash. Chinese TMT MEITUA/KUAISH rebounded to 2-4bps tighter from the previous weakness, while the broader Chinese IG benchmarks traded largely unchanged. FRESHK encountered selling pressure on the 27-28s tranches. EHICAR 26 dropped 2.5pts, while EHICAR 27 was 0.4pt higher. In HK space, we saw better buying interests in front-end HK T2s like BNKEA from global AM accounts. The NWDEVVL/VDNWDL complex led the space and rose 0.1-2.6pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp surged 2.5pts. LASUDE 26 gained 1.5pts. HYSAN Perps and bonds were 0.1-0.5pt higher. The Macau gaming complex were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. See comments on MGM China below. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29 were 0.1-1.3pts higher. See our comments on SZ government's rescue plan for Vanke yesterday. FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26-27 were another 0.6-0.8pt higher on news of funding exercises, including recent share placements to raise HKD472.3mn, potential ABS and USD bond issue. LNGFOR 27-32/DALWAN 28s edged 0.1-0.3pt higher. In SE Asian space, ACPM Perps were down by 0.5-0.9pt. VLLPM 27-29 stabilized and were unchanged to 0.1pt higher. KR IG tightened 1-2bps across most corporate and financial curves. In JP space, SOFTBK long-end issues were 0.3pt weaker, whilst their front-end counterparts remained sought after by carry buyers. The RAKUTN curve was muted despite stronger FY25 results. In AU space, PBs were selling ANZ/NAB T2s, though the flow was well absorbed and these T2s closed unchanged. In the Middle East, ARAMCO 30-56s and long-end KSA rose up to 0.9pt. SECO 29-36 were unchanged to 0.4pt higher. Yankee AT1s had a sluggish session. LGFVs were largely afloat supported by better buying flows on the margin from RMs. Glenn Ko, CFA 高志和 (852) 3657 6235 glennko@cmbi.com.hk Cyrena Ng, CPA 吴蓓莹 (852) 3900 0801 cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Yujing Zhang 张钰婧 (852) 3900 0830 zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Last Trading Day's Top Movers <table><tr><td>Top Performers</td><td>Price</td><td>Change</td></tr><tr><td>NWDEVL 4 1/8 PERP</td><td>73.7</td><td>2.6</td></tr><tr><td>FAEACO 12.814 PERP</td><td>77.5</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr><td>NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30</td><td>84.9</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr><td>NWDEVL 4 1/8 07/18/29</td><td>85.8</td><td>1.9</td></tr><tr><td>NWDEVL 3 3/4 01/14/31</td><td>77.8</td><td>1.8</td></tr></table> <table><tr><td>Top Underperformers</td><td>Price</td><td>Change</td></tr><tr><td>TTMTIN 4.35 06/09/26</td><td>96.6</td><td>-2.8</td></tr><tr><td>EHICAR 7 09/21/26</td><td>67.0</td><td>-2.5</td></tr><tr><td>ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29</td><td>22.2</td><td>-1.6</td></tr><tr><td>ACPM 3.9 PERP</td><td>65.4</td><td>-0.9</td></tr><tr><td>ACPM 4.85 PERP</td><td>81.7</td><td>-0.5</td></tr></table> # Marco News Recap 宏观新闻回顾 Macro - S&P (-1.57%), Dow (-1.34%) and Nasdaq (-2.03%) were lower on Thursday. US latest initial jobless claims were +227k, higher than the market expectation of +222k. US Jan'26 existing home sales was 3.91mn, lower than the market expectation of 4.16mn. UST yield was lower on Thursday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.47%/3.67%/4.09%/4.72%. # Desk Analyst Comments 分析员市场观点 # > MGMCHI: GGR market share rose to 16.1% in FY25 Table 1: MGM China FY25 financial highlights <table><tr><td>HKD mn</td><td>FY25</td><td>FY24</td><td>Change</td><td>4Q25</td><td>4Q24</td><td>Change</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">Operating Revenue</td></tr><tr><td>MGM Macau</td><td>13,408.1</td><td>13,136.8</td><td>2.1%</td><td>3,478.2</td><td>3,340.9</td><td>4.1%</td></tr><tr><td>MGM Cotai</td><td>21,379.4</td><td>18,250.4</td><td>17.1%</td><td>6,138.7</td><td>4,579.0</td><td>34.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>34,787.5</td><td>31,387.2</td><td>10.8%</td><td>9,616.9</td><td>7,919.9</td><td>21.4%</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">Adj. EBITDA</td></tr><tr><td>MGM Macau</td><td>3,660.6</td><td>3,830.0</td><td>-4.4%</td><td>868.0</td><td>910.6</td><td>-4.7%</td></tr><tr><td>MGM Cotai</td><td>6,344.6</td><td>5,228.6</td><td>21.3%</td><td>1,884.9</td><td>1,215.7</td><td>55.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>10,005.2</td><td>9,058.6</td><td>10.4%</td><td>2,752.9</td><td>2,126.3</td><td>29.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Adj. EBITDA margin</td><td>28.8%</td><td>28.9%</td><td>-0.1 pct pt</td><td>28.6%</td><td>26.8%</td><td>+1.8 pct pt</td></tr></table> Source: Company filling, CMBI FICC Research. MGM China (MGMCHI) delivered a stronger set of 4Q25 and FY25 results. In 4Q25, revenue rose $21.4\%$ yoy to HKD9.6bn and adj. EBITDA increased $29.5\%$ yoy to HKD2.8bn, with adj. EBITDA margin increased 1.8 pct pts to $28.6\%$ in 4Q25 from $26.8\%$ in 4Q24. For FY25, revenue increased $10.8\%$ yoy to HKD34.8bn and adj. EBITDA increased $10.4\%$ yoy to HKD10.0bn. MGMCHI's FY25 adj. EBITDA margin was broadly stable at $28.8\%$ , compared to $28.9\%$ in FY24. GGR market share continued to increase, to $16.5\%$ in 4Q25 and to $16.1\%$ in FY25, compared to $15.8\%$ in FY24. The FY25 growth in revenue and adj. EBITDA was driven by $14\%$ visitation increase in FY25 and $11\%$ increase in daily GGR. We saw a stronger performance at MGM Cotai than at MGM Macau. MGM Cotai revenue grew $17.1\%$ yoy vs $2.1\%$ yoy for MGM Macau, reflecting higher win rates on main floor and VIP table games as well as higher slot hold. Looking into FY26, MGM Cotai's ongoing enhancement should support premium-mass penetration, with the conversion of rooms to create a total of 60 new suites which scheduled for completion in 1Q26. However, MGMCHI's branding fee (for the life of the concession, with automatic renewal for up to 20 years upon concession renewal) payable to MGM B&D Holdings (owned by its parent MGM Resorts and Pansy Ho in equal portions) doubles to $3.5\%$ from $1.75\%$ of the consolidated net monthly revenues with adjustments effective 1 Jan'26. The fee cap also rises to USD188mn in FY26 from USD60mn in FY25. Management indicated the higher fee means incremental cost of cUSD50mn to MGMCHI based on FY25 results. As per our estimate, this incremental charge represented $c1\%$ of revenue and $c4\%$ of adj. EBITDA in FY25. While the branding fee is a revenue-linked operating cost, the impact of higher branding fee should be contained. As discussed before, we consider Macau gaming bonds lower-beta and good carry plays with improving credit stories. We should see more new supply to come in view of the scheduled maturities and undemanding funding costs. Our top picks within the segment remain MPELs and STCITYs given the growing adj. EBITDA of Melco Resorts and Studio City, as well as the more appealing risk-return profiles of MPELs/STCITYs. We also consider WYNMAC'27 and '29 yield pick-up plays, trading at premium of c30-80bps over bonds of its US parent. We are neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs on valuation. Table 2: Our Macau gaming USD bond picks <table><tr><td>Security name</td><td>ISIN</td><td>Amt o/s (USD mn)</td><td>Ask Px</td><td>YTM</td><td>Mod dur</td></tr><tr><td>MPEL 5 3/8 12/04/29</td><td>USG5975LAE68</td><td>1,150</td><td>98.9</td><td>5.7%</td><td>3.4</td></tr><tr><td>MPEL 7 5/8 04/17/32</td><td>USG5975LAK29</td><td>750</td><td>105.0</td><td>6.6%</td><td>4.8</td></tr><tr><td>MPEL 6 1/2 09/24/33</td><td>USG5975LAL02</td><td>500</td><td>99.7</td><td>6.6%</td><td>5.8</td></tr><tr><td>STCITY 6 1/2 01/15/28</td><td>USG85381AF13</td><td>500</td><td>100.2</td><td>6.4%</td><td>1.8</td></tr><tr><td>STCITY 5 01/15/29</td><td>USG85381AG95</td><td>1,100</td><td>96.9</td><td>6.2%</td><td>2.6</td></tr><tr><td>WYNMAC 5 1/2 10/01/27</td><td>USG98149AD29</td><td>750</td><td>100.0</td><td>5.5%</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr><td>WYNMAC 5 1/8 12/15/29</td><td>USG98149AE02</td><td>1,000</td><td>99.4</td><td>5.3%</td><td>3.4</td></tr></table> Source: Bloomberg. > Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) <table><tr><td>Issuer/Guarantor</td><td>Size (USD mn)</td><td>Tenor</td><td>Coupon</td><td>Priced</td><td>Issue Rating (M/S/F)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td colspan="5">No Offshore Asia New Issues Priced Today</td></tr></table> > Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline) <table><tr><td>Issuer/Guarantor</td><td>Currency</td><td>Size (USD mn)</td><td>Tenor</td><td>Pricing</td><td>Issue Rating (M/S/F)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td colspan="5">No Offshore Asia New Issues Pipeline Today</td></tr></table> # > News and market color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, there were 45 credit bonds issued yesterday with an amount of RMB17bn. As for month-to-date, 901 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB701bn raised, representing a $337.3\%$ yoy increase - Indonesia's government is planning to limit coal and nickel mining for years to boost prices and conserve resources The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key policy rates by 100bps amid slowing inflation - [BSFR] Media reported Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) held a non-deal roadshow with fixed income investors earlier this week; plans a benchmark-sized bond in around two weeks - [DFHOLD] Korea Investment Holdings FY25 net operating revenue jumped $55\%$ yoy to KRW4.4tn (cUSD3.0tn) - [INDYIJ] Moody's downgraded Indika Energy by one notch to B1 from Ba3 on strained credit metrics, worsened by increased capital spending at the Awak Mas project amid subdued thermal coal prices; outlook revised to stable from negative - [LENOVO] Lenovo Group 9MFY26 revenue up $18\%$ yoy to USD61.5bn - [MONMIN] Mongolian Mining signed preliminary deal with government to keep operating key mines - [MPEL] Melco Resorts FY25 adjusted property EBITDA up 17% yoy to USD1.4bn - [MUTHIN] Muthoot Finance 9MFY26 interest income surged $51\%$ yoy to INR213.6bn (cUSD2.4bn) - [NSANY] Nissan Motor 9MFY26 net sales fell $6.2\%$ yoy to JPY8.58tn (cUSD55.93bn) - [RAKUTN] Rakuten Group FY25 EBITDA rose 33.7% yoy to JPY435.95bn (cUSD2.84bn) [SKONKR] SK On wins over $50\%$ of South Korea's KRW1tn (cUSD689mn) ESS contract tender - [TOPTB] Thai Oil FY25 EBITDA fell 20% yoy to THB17.6bn (cUSD556.4mn) [WYNMAC] Wynn Macau FY25 adjusted property EBITDAR fell 7.7% yoy to USD1.1bn Fixed Income Department Tel: 852 3657 6235/ 852 3900 0801 fis@cmbi.com.hk # Author Certification CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) have investment banking relationship with the issuers covered in this report in preceding 12 months The author who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the author covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that author in this report. 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