20160722-招商证券_香港_-Industrials_Urban_rail_transport__the_new_high-speed_rail_22页_987kb
报告摘要
Summary of the Industry Report on Urban Rail Transport
Core Content
This report provides an analysis of the urban rail transport industry in China, focusing on metro and tram development, investment trends, and the competitive landscape. It outlines the government's role in driving growth, the financial implications of urban rail projects, and the potential for future expansion.
Main Points
Metro Rail Transport Growth
- The Chinese government has confirmed the construction of 2,470km of metro rail in 2016-18E, with a total investment of RMB1.6497tn.
- As of early 2015, 8,054km of metro rail is under construction or planning.
- The population threshold for metro development is expected to be reduced from 3mn to 1.5mn, increasing the number of eligible cities from 40 to 80.
- The fixed asset investment in metro rail is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 21.4% from 2015-19E, reaching RMB2.4tn in total by 2019E.
Tram Development
- Tramways are expected to increase 9 times in the next five years, growing at a CAGR of 47% from 2015-2018E.
- The market size for tram construction is expected to reach RMB57.1bn in 2018E and RMB73.7bn in 2020E.
- Tram construction costs are RMB100mn/km, significantly lower than metro rail costs (RMB500mn/km), and typically take 1-2 years to complete. No NDRC approval is required.
Investment and Valuation
- The industry chain includes exploration and design, construction, locomotives, and signal and communication.
- CRSC (3969 HK) is highlighted as a top pick, with an attractive valuation and expected 47% CAGR in the tram market.
- CRRC (1766 HK) and Times Electric (3898 HK) are given NEUTRAL ratings due to overvalued current prices.
Market Potential
- The current length of metro rail in China is only 19% of the potential to be constructed, with 53% of the rail length yet to commence construction.
- Potential metro planning is estimated to be at least 3,042km, corresponding to RMB1.5tn of investment.
- The report suggests that the metro market is not saturated, and there is significant room for growth in the coming 3-5 years.
Key Information
Financials
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Target Price (HK$) | Current Price (HK$) | Upside | EPS (FY16E) | EPS (FY17E) | P/E (FY16E) | P/E (FY17E) | P/B (FY16E) | P/B (FY17E) | ROE (%) FY16E | ROA (%) FY16E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Railway | 390 HK | NEUTRAL | 5.5 | 5.76 | -4% | 0.58 | 0.62 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 0.75 | 9.4 | 9.3% | 1.7% |
| CRCC | 1186 HK | NEUTRAL | 12.6 | 9.67 | 30% | 1.03 | 1.16 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 0.86 | 10.9 | 10.9% | 2.1% |
| China Com Con | 1800 HK | BUY | 12.0 | 8.30 | 45% | 1.06 | 1.20 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 0.62 | 9.4 | 9.4% | 2.1% |
| China CRSC | 3969 HK | BUY | 7.6 | 5.15 | 47% | 0.37 | 0.46 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 1.71 | 14.5 | 14.5% | 6.5% |
| Times Electric | 3898 HK | NEUTRAL | 38.4 | 42.60 | -10% | 2.69 | 2.98 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 2.58 | 19.4 | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| CRRC | 1766 HK | NEUTRAL | 6.3 | 6.91 | -10% | 0.47 | 0.52 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 1.15 | 9.3 | 3.8% | 3.8% |
Funding and Development Models
- The PPP model is considered suitable for urban rail transport due to its public utility nature and stable cash flow.
- The "railway+property" model is gaining traction, with examples such as the Shenzhen Metro and Vanke partnership.
- The state provides strong support, including the "Three-year plan" and financial backing through the Ministry of Finance.
Market Concentration
- The market concentration decreases from HSR to metro to modern tram.
- HSR is the most stable in terms of market situation, while metro and tram are in early stages of development.
Conclusion
The urban rail transport industry in China is experiencing significant growth due to government support and the potential for expansion. With a reduced population threshold, the number of cities eligible for metro development is expected to increase, leading to a surge in investment. The PPP model and "railway+property" model are promising for funding and development. While metro rail is not yet profitable in the short term, the long-term benefits of urban rail transport are expected to outweigh these challenges. The industry is seen as a new type of high-speed rail and is likely to follow the fast development trajectory of HSR from 2008-2010.
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