2005年-世界发展银行全球_Analysis_of_Power_Projects_with_Private_Participation_under_Stress_118页_746kb

Summary of Analysis of Power Projects with Private Participation under Stress

Core Content

This report, published in October 2005, is part of the ESMAP and PPIAF programs and focuses on the analysis of power projects with private participation (PPI) that are under stress in developing and emerging markets. It was prepared as a follow-up to the Power Sector Investors Roundtable held in March 2003 and aims to provide insights into the causes, consequences, and potential strategies for resolving distress in such projects.

Main Objectives

The report seeks to:

• Understand the causes of stress in power projects.
• Analyze the consequences of these stress situations.
• Characterize the trends in private participation in the electric power sector.
• Propose strategies and instruments for resolving stress situations in power projects.

Key Findings

Private Participation Trends (1984–2003)

• Private investment in the energy sector has declined since the 1997 peak.
• FDI in electricity was more volatile than in other sectors, with a peak of US$51.3 billion in 1997.
• The majority of private electricity projects were concentrated in Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific.
• Greenfield projects and divestiture projects accounted for the largest share of investments.
• A small number of large projects dominated investment, leading to high risk exposure.

Stress in Power Projects

• Only 4% of total power projects were or had been under stress.
• 21% of the stressed projects were successfully resolved.
• Divestiture projects and distribution projects were the most common types of stressed projects.
• IPP generation projects had the lowest stress probability (3%), due to their relative protection from political and market volatility.
• Distribution projects had the highest distress probability (9%), and divestiture projects were the most numerous (over 50% of all stressed projects).

Causes of Stress

• The main causes of stress, in order of frequency, were:
  • Socio-political factors
  • Macroeconomic instability
  • Regulatory and pricing disputes
  • Project structural problems
  • Poor investor performance
• East Asia and the Pacific primarily faced stress due to macroeconomic instability.
• Latin America and the Caribbean experienced stress mainly due to socio-political issues.
• Eastern Europe and Central Asia suffered from socio-political uncertainties.
• Africa was affected by socio-political issues related to inconsistent adherence to sector reforms.

Consequences of Stress

• Most consequences were financial distress, including:
  • Cash flow shortages
  • Default risk to lenders
  • Inability to pay due to host governments
  • Inability to finance internal programs
• Licensing and regulatory cancellation risks were less common, affecting only 25% of projects.
• Financial consequences varied by region:
  • East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean had high default risks due to highly leveraged structures.
  • Africa and Eastern Europe and Central Asia faced more license cancellation risks and lower returns than target.

Key Recommendations

• Consensus building among stakeholders, especially the public, is essential for successful reforms and PPI.
• Financial engineering instruments should be used to mitigate macroeconomic instability.
• Fair and sustainable electricity pricing is a critical issue to address during the workout process.
• A new business plan should be developed for restructured projects to ensure their commercial viability.

Conclusion

The report concludes that:

• Reforms without strong stakeholder consensus are a major cause of stress in power projects.
• Political visibility and market volatility significantly increase the risk of distress.
• The World Bank Group can play a crucial role in facilitating consensus and financial engineering to support the resolution of stressed projects.
• A follow-up handbook is being developed to design strategies and instruments for addressing stress in power projects, based on the findings of this report.

Key Information

• ESMAP is a global technical assistance program managed by the World Bank, involving UNDP and bilateral donors.
• The report is based on a survey of 63 electricity projects under stress in 18 countries.
• It includes charts and tables to illustrate regional trends, types of PPI, subsectors, and stress patterns.
• The report highlights the importance of regulatory predictability, contract enforcement, and coordinated reform in reducing stress in power projects.

Supporting Data

• Table 2.1: Lists the top 15 developing countries by cumulative investment in electricity projects with private participation.
• Table A2.1–A2.4: Provides detailed regional, subsector, and type-based statistics on private participation and stress.
• Table A3.1–A3.9: Offers insights into the number and percentage of stress cases, their causes, and consequences, categorized by region and subsector.

Further Information

• ESMAP Website: www.esmap.org
• Contact: esmap@worldbank.org or via mail at the World Bank Group in Washington, D.C.

This report serves as a critical reference for understanding the dynamics of private participation in the power sector and the challenges posed by stressed projects, offering actionable insights for policymakers and investors.