PitchBook-2023年1季度金融科技与支付公共薪酬表和估值指南（英）-2023.3-25页_8mb

报告摘要

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH: Fintech & Payments Valuation Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the performance and valuation trends of fintech and payments companies as of March 31, 2023. It highlights the shift in market focus from growth to profitability, the depressed valuations in the sector, and the strategies companies are adopting to navigate this environment. Additionally, it includes revenue data, stock returns, and key insights into M&A activity and market dynamics.

Key Takeaways

Market Focus on Profitability: Public market investors are prioritizing profitability over rapid growth. While the Nasdaq rose by 16.8% in Q1, many high-growth fintechs saw flat or declining stock prices.
Depressed Valuations: Valuations remain low, with the neobanks, brokers, and crypto sector trading at a median EV/NTM revenue multiple of 1.9x, compared to 4.2x in 2022. High-growth fintech and payments also show similar trends.
Strategic Leadership Changes: Companies are seeking strategic leadership changes to improve performance. For example, Oscar Health replaced its CEO to bring in operational expertise.
M&A Activity: Newly public fintechs are engaging in M&A to sustain growth. Pagaya and Marqeta made their first acquisitions in Q1, signaling a shift towards strategic expansion.
Revenue Growth Declining: Revenue growth for many fintechs and payments companies is slowing, with some moving from over 100% annual growth to 10-30% growth rates.
Market Cap vs. Raised Capital: Market caps for successful cohorts (neobanks, payments, fintech) have grown, but not all sectors have seen the same results, with insurtech experiencing a decline in market cap relative to raised capital.

Stock Returns Overview

Neobanks, Brokers, and Crypto

Company	IPO/SPAC	Type	1 Week	30 Days	90 Days	Market Bottom	Market Peak	YTD	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years
Coinbase	IPO	Crypto	-0%	4%	91%	-3%	-73%	-73%	-64%	N/A	N/A
Dave	SPAC	Neobank	-1%	-27%	-35%	-51%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MoneyLion	SPAC	Neobank	15%	-8%	-8%	-44%	-86%	-86%	-77%	N/A	N/A
Nubank	IPO	Neobank	14%	-2%	17%	-9%	-52%	-49%	-38%	N/A	N/A
Robinhood	IPO	Neobroker & Neobank	12%	-0%	19%	-9%	-47%	-45%	-28%	N/A	N/A
SoFi	SPAC	Neobank & Neobroker	6%	-6%	32%	19%	-61%	-62%	-36%	N/A	N/A

Insurtech

Company	IPO/SPAC	Type	1 Week	30 Days	90 Days	Market Bottom	Market Peak	YTD	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years
Bright Health	IPO	Insurtech	0%	-56%	-66%	-79%	-94%	-94%	-89%	N/A	N/A
Clover Health	SPAC	Insurtech	-4%	-25%	-9%	-47%	-79%	-77%	-76%	N/A	N/A
Doma	SPAC	Insurtech	18%	-28%	-10%	-6%	-92%	-92%	-81%	N/A	N/A
Hippo	SPAC	Insurtech	7%	-2%	19%	-8%	-77%	-77%	-67%	N/A	N/A
Lemonade	IPO	Insurtech	10%	-6%	4%	-35%	-66%	-66%	-46%	N/A	N/A
Oscar Health	IPO	Insurtech	95%	29%	166%	70%	-20%	-17%	-34%	N/A	N/A
Root	IPO	Insurtech	3%	-8%	1%	-46%	-92%	-92%	-87%	N/A	N/A

Proptech

Company	IPO/SPAC	Type	1 Week	30 Days	90 Days	Market Bottom	Market Peak	YTD	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years
Latch	SPAC	Proptech	-1%	-1%	7%	-9%	-90%	-90%	-82%	N/A	N/A
Opendoor	SPAC	Proptech	6%	31%	52%	-37%	-88%	-88%	-80%	N/A	N/A
Redfin	IPO	Proptech	13%	26%	114%	95%	-77%	-76%	-50%	-43%	-60%
WeWork	IPO	Proptech	-4%	-28%	-46%	-67%	-92%	-91%	-89%	N/A	N/A
Zillow	IPO	Proptech	2%	7%	38%	55%	-30%	-30%	-10%	20%	-17%

Medium-Growth and Legacy Payments

Company	IPO/SPAC	Type	1 Week	30 Days	90 Days	Market Bottom	Market Peak	YTD	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years
Euronet	IPO	Payments	2%	2%	19%	52%	-8%	-6%	-14%	24%	42%
FLETCOR	IPO	Payments	5%	-1%	15%	25%	-9%	-6%	-15%	9%	4%
Global Payments	IPO	Payments	7%	-6%	6%	-2%	-26%	-22%	-23%	-30%	-6%
Mastercard	IPO	Payments	3%	3%	5%	28%	-2%	1%	2%	43%	107%
PayPal	IPO	Payments	3%	3%	7%	-9%	-61%	-60%	-34%	-22%	0%
PaySafe	SPAC	Payments	8%	-9%	24%	5%	-64%	-63%	-58%	N/A	N/A
REPAY	SPAC	Payments	10%	-19%	-19%	2%	-66%	-64%	-56%	-56%	N/A
Shift4	SPAC	Payments	13%	9%	36%	65%	27%	31%	22%	N/A	N/A
Stone Co	IPO	Payments	7%	13%	1%	-11%	-51%	-43%	-19%	-59%	N/A
Visa	IPO	Payments	2%	3%	9%	26%	2%	4%	2%	36%	88%
Western Union	IPO	Payments	9%	-5%	12%	37%	-92%	-91%	-89%	N/A	N/A

High-Growth Payments

Company	IPO/SPAC	Type	1 Week	30 Days	90 Days	Market Bottom	Market Peak	YTD	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years
Adyen	IPO	Payments	-5%	4%	6%	18%	-46%	-44%	-28%	67%	N/A
AvidXchange	IPO	Payments	3%	-13%	-22%	-4%	-51%	-48%	-3%	N/A	N/A
Bill.com	IPO	Payments	17%	-4%	-26%	-34%	-65%	-67%	-64%	116%	N/A
Block	IPO	Payments/Neobank	13%	-10%	9%	22%	-58%	-57%	-49%	25%	40%
Flywire	IPO	Payments	6%	14%	20%	42%	-24%	-23%	-4%	N/A	N/A
Nuvei	IPO	Payments	5%	42%	71%	64%	-32%	-32%	-42%	N/A	N/A
Remitly	IPO	Payments	0%	18%	48%	61%	-16%	-18%	72%	N/A	N/A
Toast	IPO	Payments/POS	9%	-4%	-2%	-1%	-46%	-49%	-18%	N/A	N/A
Wise	IPO	Payments	3%	-3%	-1%	-11%	-34%	-34%	4%	N/A	N/A

Valuation Metrics

EV/NTM Forecast Revenue

Neobanks, Brokers, and Crypto: Median 1.9x, Mean 1.6x
High-Growth Payments: Median 4.1x, Mean 6.1x
Medium-Growth and Legacy Payments: Median 4.4x, Mean 3.3x

Stock Price/NTM Forecast EPS

Neobanks, Brokers, and Crypto: Median 2.8x, Mean 3.3x
High-Growth Payments: Median 3.4x, Mean 4.4x
Medium-Growth and Legacy Payments: Median 3.8x, Mean 4.8x

Revenue Trends

Neobanks, Brokers, and Crypto

Actual Revenue (2022): $0.5B, $1.3B, $7.8B, $3.2B
Forecast Revenue (2023): $2.8B, $3.2B, $3.9B
EV/Forecast Revenue: 5.0x, 4.3x, 3.5x

High-Growth Payments

Actual Revenue (2022): $1.3B, $1.4B, $1.9B
Forecast Revenue (2023): $2.4B, $2.6B, $2.7B
EV/Forecast Revenue: 22.9x, 17.6x, 13.7x

Medium-Growth and Legacy Payments

Actual Revenue (2022): $2.8B, $2.5B, $3.0B, $3.4B
Forecast Revenue (2023): $3.8B, $4.1B, $4.5B
EV/Forecast Revenue: 6.8x, 5.5x, 4.5x

Summary of Trends

Market Shift: Public investors are favoring profitability over growth, leading to depressed valuations for high-growth fintechs and payments firms.
M&A Activity: Companies like Pagaya and Marqeta are acquiring new firms to sustain revenue growth and reduce execution risk.
Leadership Changes: Some companies, like Oscar Health, are making strategic leadership changes to improve performance.
Revenue Growth: Organic growth is slowing, with many companies transitioning from high-growth to more moderate rates.
Valuation Metrics: EV/NTM revenue multiples are at historical lows, with a notable decline in 2024 forecasts for several sectors.

Conclusion

The fintech and payments sector is navigating a challenging environment, marked by a shift towards profitability, depressed valuations, and strategic M&A activity. While some companies are showing resilience, the overall trend indicates a need for operational efficiency and sustainable growth models.

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