20231019-招银国际-安踏体育-02020.HK-2023_Investor_Day_and_the_new_3_years_targets__excited_about_Anta_brand_s_new_strategies_9页_1mb

Anta Sports Investor Day 2023 Update and Financial Analysis

• Key Growth Strategies and Targets:
  Anta outlined new strategies for each brand during its Investor Day, with conservative retail sales guidance for FY23E. Anta target is RMB 40bn in FY23E (14% estimated growth), increasing to RMB 60bn in FY26E with a 10-15% CAGR. FILA is projected at RMB 26bn in FY23E (21% estimated growth), to RMB 40bn in FY26E at similar CAGR. Descente and Kolon aim to exceed RMB 10bn by FY26E with higher growth rates.

• Analyst View:
  Analyst remained positive on Anta's multi-brand approach, which helps navigate macro trends like demand polarization. Despite conservative targets, the company's strategies, including focus on mass market growth and brand reforms, are seen as promising. However, revisions to long-term targets may not surprise the market, as they align with existing conservative forecasts.

• Valuation and Recommendation:
  CMBIGM maintains a BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$109.99, representing a 16.7% upside from current price HK$94.25. Valuation is based on 27x FY23E earnings, while peer comparison indicates Anta is fairly valued and not overly expensive despite industry-wide risk.

• Financial Performance Highlights:
  Revenue and profit growth showed strong progression, with FY23E estimates suggesting decent performance despite challenging conditions. The multi-brand portfolio enhances key capabilities in retail operations and global resources. P/E ratio is 23.1x for FY23E, and NOP margin growth is anticipated.

• Risks and Caveats:
  Management believes 3Q23 results met expectations, but weak macro conditions could affect growth. Analyst noted that while the direction is correct, execution will be critical, and the company trades at a high but not excessive valuation, with potential for improvement.

Overall Outlook: Anta's strategies are seen as aligned with consumer trends, offering potential for strong performance if execution remains consistent, despite some blowouts from market conditions.