> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** Q4 2025 # SPACE IQ Space Investment Quarterly # A Framework for Understanding the Space Economy The Space IQ provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the space economy and emerging opportunities for investors. Traditionally, space has been viewed in terms of physical infrastructure—rockets, satellites, and other orbital assets. However, this perspective overlooks the broader impact of space-based technology, which has become a global platform for innovation. Entrepreneurs and established companies are building on these technologies to create their own unique services and solutions, driving growth across multiple sectors. We believe the history of GPS — which has generated trillions of dollars in economic value — provides a key framework for understanding how large ecosystems form around space-based technologies, paving the way for significant innovation and expansion. Our report organizes this into three critical categories, or technology layers: Infrastructure, Distribution, and Applications. Infrastructure—like satellites on orbit—acts as the foundation. On top of this, new hardware and software services are developed to distribute and transform data for widespread use. This Distribution then fuels the creation of thousands of commercial Applications, ranging from devices to mobile apps. When we first introduced our GPS-based framework, it was considered contrarian. Today, it is widely accepted by founders, investors, and established corporations. McKinsey and the World Economic Forum share our perspective, projecting a $1.8 trillion global space economy by 2035, driven by both "backbone" and "reach" use cases—the latter being companies like Uber that rely on space technology to generate revenue. # LEARN MORE IN OUR CONVERSATION WITH THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM # Trusted by Investors, Institutions, and Governments Space IQ is manually curated from 3,000+ companies and cited by Morgan Stanley, Citi, DoD, NASA, and ESA as the highest-signal benchmark for the space economy. Pair with PitchBook for deal terms and Novospace for market sizing. Focusing solely on pure-play Infrastructure companies while ignoring the Distribution and Applications layers risks missing critical developments and emerging commercial opportunities. Rapidly evolving space-tech platforms, software applications, and AI are not only expanding the space economy but also revolutionizing daily life. We hope our report serves as a valuable guide to navigating these opportunities. This report breaks down private investment in the space economy into three key categories, providing a holistic view of the commercial space ecosystem. Each technology layer reflects different facets of the opportunity set and has its own distinct features and growth drivers. For those focused on a narrower definition of the space economy, we direct your attention to the Infrastructure section, which includes companies commonly considered "core" space firms—such as those involved in building rockets and orbital hardware. # Infrastructure Hardware and software to build, launch, and operate space-based assets, such as rockets, satellites, propulsion systems, robotic systems, lunar landers, and more. SPACEX MPULSE S P A C E # Distribution Hardware and software to connect, process, and manage data from space-based assets, such as GPS-based navigation services, Earth Observation data management platforms, edge computing for satellite-based ISPs, and more. Trimble SKYWATCH # Applications Specialized hardware and software that utilizes data from space-based assets, such as rideshare services (GPS), agricultural data analytics (GEOINT), IoT sensor monitoring (SatCom), parametric weather insurance (GEOINT), and more. Uber AND # Q4 2025 # SPACE For the last decade, the space economy has been defined by promise. In the next decade, it will be defined by utility. We close the books on 2025 against a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The year was bookended by the "Great Freeze", a historic 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown that began in Q4. This bureaucratic paralysis furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal employees, strained essential services, and ground the aviation sector to a halt. Yet, in a striking display of decoupling, the commercial space economy did not just survive the freeze, it accelerated through it. While the FAA was forced to issue emergency orders limiting commercial launches to overnight windows to reduce strain on a skeleton-crew air traffic control system, commercial operators adapted. Space Capital tracked $17.0 billion invested across 135 rounds in Q4 alone, bringing the 2025 total to a record$ 55.3 billion. The data is unequivocal: The "skepticism phase" is effectively over. We are no longer just building the rails, we are running the trains. # The Signal in the Noise: A Flight to Quality The topline growth in 2025 masks a deeper, more important structural shift in the market: a bifurcation between "tourist capital" and industrial maturity. Throughout the year, we saw the broader public markets harshly reject consumer-facing companies and software firms that lacked a compelling AI-driven growth story. The IPO window, while technically open, proved treacherous for those without robust unit economics. Several venture-backed debuts struggled to hold their opening prices. This has created a healthy discipline in the private markets. The easy money is gone, replaced by high-conviction capital flowing into companies solving hard problems. Three critical developments in Q4 underscore this transition: No Longer a Single Player Game For years, the space economy's single greatest point of failure was its reliance on a single provider for heavy lift. In Q4, Blue Origin shattered that bottleneck. By successfully landing its New Glenn booster on the Jacklyn, Blue Origin became only the second commercial entity to recover an orbital-class booster. With New Glenn entering commercial service, we have officially entered the era of the heavy-lift competition. Capacity is expanding, prices are stabilizing, and access is becoming guaranteed. Consolidation of the Old Guard In Europe, the announcement of "Project Bromo"—an initiative to combine the space businesses of Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo—is a tacit admission of defeat for the legacy model. The incumbents have realized they cannot compete with agile, vertically integrated commercial players using a cost-plus structure. This consolidation is the final signal that the future belongs to the commercial sector, not the state-backed integrators of the past. The Rise of "World Models" Perhaps most significantly, investment in Applications hit $30.2 billion this year, driven by a massive$ 24.7 billion surge into GEOINT (Geospatial Intelligence). We are witnessing the convergence of Space and AI. Earth observation is no longer about static imagery, it is about feeding proprietary datasets into "World Models" capable of predictive reasoning. The market has realized that you cannot build a model of the world without looking at it. # 2026 Outlook As we turn the page to 2026, our thesis remains steadfast, but the opportunities are evolving from access to integration. Based on our latest analysis, we predict three defining trends that will determine vintage returns for the year ahead. The SpaceX IPO: The "Netscape Moment" Conditions are aligning for a SpaceX IPO in 2026. With over 10 million Starlink subscribers and a direct-to-cell roadmap intercepting global telecom revenue, the company has transcended "aerospace." A public listing would be a market-defining event, comparable to Netscape in 1995. It would force a sector-wide repricing, validating space as a scalable asset class and providing the liquidity event that institutional investors have been waiting for. This will likely trigger a stampede of high-quality listings, finally cracking the IPO window wide open for mature unicorns. The AI Energy Crisis Looks Upward Terrestrial power grids are straining under the exponential compute demands of AI. In 2026, the narratives of Space and AI will collide over a singular bottleneck: Energy. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are hunting for gigawatts, and Earth is running out of clean, accessible capacity. We expect massive hype to emerge around orbital data centers and space-based solar power this year. However, investors must distinguish between thermodynamic reality and pitch-deck promise. The immediate opportunity lies not in putting servers in orbit, but in using space-based assets to manage and optimize terrestrial energy grids that are being pushed to their breaking points. Strategic Competition & The "Golden Dome" Geopolitics has established a permanent floor for space investment. With the "Golden Dome" missile defense architecture, "maneuverability" will become the most valuable currency in orbit. Static satellites are sitting ducks. Dynamic, responsive assets are the new requirement. Furthermore, late 2026 will see China targeting the Lunar South Pole, directly challenging the U.S. Artemis program. This competition graduates the Moon from a long-term aspiration to a near-term strategic domain. We expect to see a surge in funding for cislunar infrastructure—communications, navigation, and situational awareness, as the superpowers race to secure the high ground. # The Bottom Line In 2026, we stop counting launches and start valuing what those launches deliver. The bottleneck is no longer getting to space, it is building the industrial base once we are there. The companies that can leverage this infrastructure to solve terrestrial challenges, from climate resilience to global connectivity, will define the returns of this cycle. Space is no longer a distant frontier for tourists, it is the invisible backbone of the global economy. For the savvy investor, 2026 isn't just another year of development. It is the foundation for the next decade of alpha. Let's get to work. TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNT AND ROUNDS BY LAYER Applications Distribution Infrastructure Number of Rounds A historic 2025 set the record for space investment at $55.3B, driven by record mega-round activity as capital concentrated into perceived leaders. Infrastructure reached$ 22.2B, a new high as Satellite Manufacturing and Launch attracted significant capital underpinned by defense demand. Distribution also reached a new high at $2.8B, with funding concentrated in direct-to-device SatCom, resilient networks, and an expanding GEOINT stack. Applications logged$ 30.2B, the fourth-highest year, with early-stage activity subdued but growth- and late-stage investment accelerating—driven by GEOINT and SatCom amid national security priorities and physical AI-driven autonomy. Exit activity also reached record levels, with a growing pipeline of public debuts suggesting 2026 could be a strong year for IPOs. # Executive Summary <table><tr><td>Equity Investment</td><td colspan="2">TRAILING 12 MONTHS</td><td>Q4 2025</td></tr><tr><td>TOTAL</td><td colspan="2">$55.3B 431 companies</td><td>$17.0B 135 companies</td></tr><tr><td>INFRASTRUCTURE</td><td colspan="2">$22.2B 231 companies</td><td>$11.3B 75 companies</td></tr><tr><td>DISTRIBUTION</td><td colspan="2">$2.8B 52 companies</td><td>$1.5B 20 companies</td></tr><tr><td>APPLICATIONS</td><td colspan="2">$30.2B 148 companies</td><td>$4.2B 40 companies</td></tr></table> Exits <table><tr><td>ACQUISITIONS</td><td>91 ($45.6B proceeds)</td><td>28 ($7.7B proceeds)</td></tr><tr><td>VALUATION STEP-UP</td><td>2.2x (median)</td><td>2.4x (median)</td></tr><tr><td>IPOS</td><td>8 ($3.6B proceeds)</td><td>2 ($1.0B proceeds)</td></tr><tr><td>REVENUE MULTIPLE AT IPO</td><td>9.2x (median)</td><td>9.1x (median)</td></tr></table> Companies <table><tr><td>INFRASTRUCTURE</td><td>SpaceX $800.0B</td><td>Project Prometheus $6.2B</td></tr><tr><td>DISTRIBUTION</td><td>SandboxAQ $5.8B</td><td>Luma AI $900M</td></tr><tr><td>APPLICATIONS</td><td>Waymo $45.0B</td><td>Physical Intelligence $600M</td></tr></table> The data from this report is available in an interactive format on our website. # The Entrepreneurial Space Age CUMULATIVE PRIVATE MARKET EQUITY INVESTMENT FROM 2009 TO PRESENT BY GEOGRAPHY USA China Singapore India BY INDUSTRY Satellites $347.7B Launch $55.6B Emerging Industries $10.6B BY LAYER Applications $277.0B Infrastructure $121.8B Distribution $15.1B 1. "Other" consists of countries each representing less than $2\%$ of funding. # Infrastructure Hardware and software to build, launch, and operate space-based assets like SpaceX TOTAL EQUITY INVESTMENT (PAST 36 MONTHS) $51.7B This page QUARTERLY INVESTMENT SOURCE In Q4, Infrastructure totaled $11.3B across 75 rounds, setting new quarterly highs in both capital and deal count. 2025 sets a new record at$ 22.2B, up 30% from the 2021 peak. Growth-stage activity was strong, surpassing the 2023 peak. Satellites ( $12.8B) and Launch ($ 7.9B) each set annual records, fueled by a surge in mega-rounds across Satellite Manufacturing and Medium Launch. Defense remained the dominant driver, shaped by Golden Dome requirements for tracking, connectivity, and orbital resilience, alongside a sustained wave of software innovations accelerating hardware development and operations. TOP DEALS THIS QUARTER <table><tr><td>COMPANY</td><td>ROUND</td><td>AMOUNT</td></tr><tr><td>Project Prometheus</td><td>Series A</td><td>$6,200 M</td></tr><tr><td>Stoke Space Technologies</td><td>Series D</td><td>$510 M</td></tr><tr><td>Space Pioneer</td><td>Series D</td><td>$351 M</td></tr><tr><td>Castelion</td><td>Series B</td><td>$350 M</td></tr><tr><td>K2 Space</td><td>Series C</td><td>$250 M</td></tr><tr><td>ICEYE</td><td>Series E</td><td>$174 M</td></tr><tr><td>Harmonic</td><td>Series C</td><td>$120 M</td></tr><tr><td>Endurosat</td><td>Series C</td><td>$104 M</td></tr><tr><td>Neural Concept</td><td>Series C</td><td>$100 M</td></tr><tr><td>Antares Industries</td><td>Series B</td><td>$96 M</td></tr></table> The top 10 deals totaled $8.3B, led by Satellites at 84% and six U.S. companies. Project Prometheus, a Jeff Bezos led venture applying agentic AI to the physical economy with a focus on engineering and manufacturing, raised a massive $6.2B round. K2 Space landed a $250M Series C, following a $110M Series B in Q1, to scale its "Mega Class" satellite platforms optimized for heavy launch. Space Capital portfolio company ICEYE made the list as the category leader in persistent SAR, reinforced by a €1.7B German defense award. In Launch, Stoke Space and Space Pioneer progressed toward reusable architectures, while Castelion is scaling mass production of tactical hypersonic systems. INVESTMENT GEOGRAPHY Over the past three years, North America has led global Infrastructure investment at $79\%$ , driven by Blue Origin, Project Prometheus, Maxar, SpaceX, AST Mobile, Stoke Space, Applied Intuition, and Vast, together representing $71\%$ of the U.S. total. Asia ranks second at $11\%$ , driven by China. India, Japan, and South Korea are seeing early-stage momentum, with India showing the strongest increase with record investment and deal activity in 2025. Europe ranks third at $9\%$ , led by Germany, followed by the UK, Italy, and France. AVERAGEROUND SIZE Average round sizes have climbed across all stages compared to 2023. Seed round sizes rose $76 \%$ from $4.5 \text{M}$ to $\$ 7.9 \text{M}$ in 2025, the largest increase across stages, followed by Series B at $37 \%$ . Series A and C increased more modestly by $24 \%$ and $25 \%$ . Defense and Satellite Manufacturing have been the prevailing themes, led by companies including Impulse Space, K2 Space, Castelion, Stoke Space, and Hadrian. The 2025 surge reflects increased capital concentration amongst select companies. Notably, Infrastructure posted a record 39 mega-rounds in 2025, with 20 between Series A–C. BY SECTOR4 CUMULATIVE ROUND SHARE Since 2009, the Satellites industry has led Infrastructure deal activity, accounting for $56\%$ of total rounds. Notably, $60\%$ of all Satellite Manufacturing rounds have occurred since 2021, with 2024 setting a record and 2025 surpassing it with a new high of 97 rounds. Emerging Industries have also expanded rapidly, now representing $23\%$ of total rounds, led by Logistics. BY SECTOR $\cdot$ CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT AMOUNT Launch has totaled $55.7B in investment since 2009, with Heavy Launch accounting for \(68\%$ . Satellites is nearing parity with \)55.5B, led by Satellite Manufacturing and SatCom at $43\%$ each. In 2025, Satellite funding continued to outpace Launch, with nearly $3x$ as many rounds closed. This reflects a sustained shift toward spacecraft development, advanced sensing, and connectivity, a gap we expect to widen further as software-driven iteration and tooling not only accelerate hardware development cycles, but also redefine capabilities. GRADUATION RATE A total of 672 Infrastructure companies raised a Seed round since 2009, but only 17 have progressed to raise a Series E—an end-to-end graduation rate of just $2.5\%$ , the lowest in this report. The largest bottleneck occurs between Series C and D, with only $6\%$ of Seed companies reaching Series D. While capital has consolidated around a few perceived winners, early-stage activity remains robust and growth-stage rounds have reached new highs. As the breadth of the Infrastructure layer continues to expand, more category-defining leaders are poised to emerge, broadening late-stage outcomes over time. EXITS BY INDUSTRY Q4 saw $1.3B in exits across 11 Infrastructure deals, including 10 acquisitions and one IPO. Indra finalized its €725M deal for 90% of Hispasat to consolidate Spanish sovereignty across defense and satellite operations, while IonQ acquired Vector Atomic to integrate atomic clocks and quantum sensing. Starfighters Space went public, a company using modified jets for responsive launch and hypersonic testing. 2025 closed as the second-highest year for Infrastructure exit value while setting a new record for exit count. Since 2009, acquisitions have accounted for 84% of exit value and 70% of rounds, though multiple IPOs in progress suggest public-market activity may ramp up as interest intensifies. # Emerging Industries Subset of Infrastructure, excluding Launch and Satellites industries, like Impulse Space TOTAL EQUITY INVESTMENT (PAST 36 MONTHS) $5.5B of$ 51.7B This page QUARTERLY INVESTMENT SOURCE Q4 saw 22 companies raise \(0.4B. VCs contributed \(74 \%\)of 2025 capital, up from \(57 \%\)over the prior three- year average. These industries have attracted \(\$ 10.7B\)since 2009, with \(84 \%\)raised in the past five years. While the vast majority are early- stage, sustained growth- stage investment since 2023 has kept annual funding elevated. In 2025, deal activity matched the 2023 high, Logistics posted a record \(\$ 0.9B\), and Industrials set a fresh deal- count record. As super- heavy launch matures into reliable, high- cadence operations, capital should continue to accelerate across stages, amplified by rising interest in orbital data centers and other high- power innovations. INVESTMENT GEOGRAPHY North American companies continue to dominate the Emerging Industries with $78\%$ of the total capital raised over the past three years. Jed McCaleb's Vast, Impulse Space, Axiom Space, True Anomaly, Sierra Space, Varda, Antares, Voyager and Intuitive Machines account for $74\%$ of the U.S. total. Asia, led by Japan with $55\%$ , has gained momentum since early 2023, driven by Astroscale and GITAI. In Europe, Germany leads with The Exploration Company, followed by Italy's D-Orbit, and France's Lookup. TOP DEALS THIS QUARTER <table><tr><td>COMPANY</td><td>ROUND</td><td>AMOUNT</td></tr><tr><td>Antares Industries</td><td>Series B</td><td>$96 M</td></tr><tr><td>Digantara</td><td>Series B</td><td>$50 M</td></tr><tr><td>Infinite Orbits</td><td>Series B</td><td>$46 M</td></tr><tr><td>Axiom Space</td><td>Series C</td><td>$30 M</td></tr><tr><td>StarDetect</td><td>Series A</td><td>$14 M</td></tr><tr><td>Fortastra</td><td>Seed</td><td>$8 M</td></tr><tr><td>Reditus Space</td><td>Seed</td><td>$7 M</td></tr><tr><td>LambdaVision</td><td>Seed</td><td>$7 M</td></tr><tr><td>Lonestar</td><td>Seed</td><td>$7 M</td></tr><tr><td>Catalyx Space</td><td>Seed</td><td>$5 M</td></tr></table> The U.S. led Q4 with seven of the top deals, with France, India and China each securing one. The majority of this capital flowed to Logistics (44%) and Industrials (43%). Energy Generation and Storage led investment driven by Antares' $96M Series B for its transportable R1 nuclear microreactor addressing power bottlenecks for defense and space. Space Situational Awareness saw the most deals: India's Digantara expanded its sensor network into missile tracking; StarDetect emerged as a first mover in China, and Fortastra launched to develop autonomous robotic spacecraft for safeguarding critical national security assets. AVERAGEROUND SIZE Emerging Industries round sizes remain volatile, reflecting its nascent and rapidly evolving landscape. Average Seed rounds rose $52\%$ in 2024 and remained elevated in 2025, while Series A increased for a second straight year, up $85\%$ in 2025 versus 2023. Growth-stage showed greater variance, heavily driven by outlier rounds: Series B surged $7x$ in 2023 and rose another $52\%$ in 2024 (Impulse Space and The Exploration Company), before moderating in 2025 (Antares, Zeno Power, and Digantara). Series C spiked in 2023 (Axiom, D-Orbit), stayed strong in 2024, and more than doubled again in 2025 (Impulse Space, True Anomaly). TOTAL EQUITY INVESTMENT (SINCE 2009) $10.6B of $121.8B This page BY SECTOR $^{6}$ · CUMULATIVE ROUND SHARE Logistics has been the most active emerging industry since 2019, replacing Stations as the leader. Over this period, 60 Logistics companies received funding (166 rounds), compared to 30 companies within Stations (74 rounds). As a result, Logistics now represents $35\%$ of rounds since 2009. Industrials has expanded rapidly since mid-2024, with a wave of new companies looking to tackle energy constraints for deep-space systems. BY SECTOR $\cdot$ CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT AMOUNT Stations has secured the most total funding at $5.0B since 2009, followed by Logistics at$ 3.0B, Industrials at $1.4B, and Lunar at$ 1.3B. The leading sectors within these industries include Habitats ( $4.6B), On-Orbit Servicing ($ 1.7B), Manufacturing and Assembly ( $0.7B), and Transport ($ 0.6B). Top funded companies include Sierra Space and Vast in Stations, Impulse Space and True Anomaly in Logistics, Varda and Antares in Industrials, ICON and ispace in Lunar. GRADUATION RATE These industries reflect lower graduation rates versus Infrastructure more broadly, with only $33\%$ of companies reaching Series A versus $49\%$ . Satellite and Launch companies have attracted significant capital despite large upfront investments and a complex operating environment. Emerging Industries face similar, if not greater challenges, making funding likely to concentrate with track records of execution operating towards a big vision. EXITS BY INDUSTRY No exit rounds occurred in Q4. In total, 2025 recorded eight exit rounds, tying 2024 for the highest annual exit activity. Since 2009, acquisitions have accounted for $82\%$ of exit value and $73\%$ of rounds in this category. While public exits remain rare, a growing number of companies are listing before proving out their business models. # Distribution Hardware and software to connect, process, and manage data from space-based assets like Trimble TOTAL EQUITY INVESTMENT (PAST 36 MONTHS) $5.4B This page QUARTERLY INVESTMENT SOURCE In Q4, Distribution saw $1.5B across 20 rounds, setting a quarterly investment record and tying the high for deal activity. The surge brought 2025 to$ 2.8B invested, making it the strongest year on record. Niantic Spatial, Archetype AI, and Luma AI are advancing spatial computing, Skild AI is developing a collective intelligence layer for robotics to perform a wide range of real-world tasks, and Northwood together with Google spinouts Aalyria and Taara are enabling scalable, high-capacity SatCom connectivity. INVESTMENT GEOGRAPHY Over the past three years, North America dominated Distribution, representing $88\%$ of investment, with Europe at $6\%$ and Asia at $5\%$ . The U.S. leads in GPS/GNSS and SatCom, while China concentrates in GNSS, Europe specializes in SatCom, and Australia in GEOINT. With growing demand for resilient, ubiquitous communications and broadening real-time spatial use cases unlocked by AI advancements, the U.S. and China are poised to see growth. TOP DEALS THIS QUARTER <table><tr><td>COMPANY</td><td>ROUND</td><td>AMOUNT</td></tr><tr><td>Luma AI</td><td>Series C</td><td>$900 M</td></tr><tr><td>General Intuition</td><td>Seed</td><td>$134 M</td></tr><tr><td>Gilat Satellite Networks</td><td>PIPE</td><td>$100 M</td></tr><tr><td>Nu Quantum</td><td>Series A</td><td>$60 M</td></tr><tr><td>Efficient Computer</td><td>Series A</td><td>$54 M</td></tr><tr><td>Code Metal</td><td>Series A</td><td>$43 M</td></tr><tr><td>Twenty</td><td>Series A</td><td>$38 M</td></tr><tr><td>Archetype AI</td><td>Series A</td><td>$35 M</td></tr><tr><td>Point One Navigation</td><td>Series C</td><td>$35 M</td></tr><tr><td>Transcelestial</td><td>Series B</td><td>$15 M</td></tr></table> The U.S. led seven of the top ten deals in Q4, with activity concentrated in the early stages and dominated by GEOINT and SatCom. Luma AI secured a landmark $900M Series C to scale multimodal "world models" capable of simulating the universe, followed by General Intuition with a$ 134M Seed to translate massive gaming datasets into spatial-temporal models for autonomous robotics; together, these frontier models are accelerating the design and navigation of complex physical systems. Meanwhile, Nu Quantum is scaling its 'Entanglement Fabric' for distributed quantum networking and data center interconnects, while Efficient Computer deploys dataflow processors to eliminate thermal and energy bottlenecks for high-density AI in space. AVERAGEROUND SIZE Average Series B rounds in 2025 are tracking $7x$ above 2023 levels, while 2025 Seed and 2024 Series A also jumped sharply, nearly $3x$ prior years, driven by landmark Seed rounds from General Intuition and Genesis AI, and Skild AI and World Labs at Series A. While Distribution has historically skewed toward smaller financings given narrower scopes, the recent step-change reflects a growing wave of outsized investment in spatial computing and physical AI, particularly robotics simulation. The standout example is Luma AI's Series C, which pushed the 2025 average nearly $13x$ above 2024 and over $20x$ above 2023. Eight mega-rounds in 2025 helped set a new annual record for Distribution. BY SECTOR $^{6}$ · CUMULATIVE ROUND SHARE SatCom leads Distribution in round share accounting for $37\%$ since 2009. Recent trends have focused on data/edge processing, multi-orbit network orchestration, and end-to-end connectivity. GEOINT has entered a period of unprecedented expansion, comprising well above $50\%$ of annual rounds for the past two years. With $87\%$ of these rounds concentrated at the early stage, GEOINT has the potential to mature a wave of innovation leveraging AI's ability to disseminate complex data and deepen our understanding of the physical world. BY SECTOR $\cdot$ CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT AMOUNT $15.1B has been invested in Distribution since 2009, with GPS/GNSS representing 39% of total funding. GPS has become increasingly concentrated, with new rounds peaking in 2017 at 24 and dropping to just eight in 2025. In contrast, GEOINT has accelerated dramatically since 2024, posting record years in 2024 and 2025. Q4 momentum pushed GEOINT past SatCom as the second-largest sector by total investment, with 32% of funding versus 30% for SatCom. GRADUATION RATE Many Distribution companies possess valuable IP, making them attractive acquisition targets and drawing strong early-stage investor appetite. While a high percentage reaches Series B, proving a durable business model and repeatable demand makes Series C a tough transition and the lowest maturation rate at $35\%$ . Those that do advance into late-stage go on to achieve the highest graduation rates, as companies position themselves as critical enablers in connecting, processing, and operations. EXITS BY INDUSTRY Investors realized $2.4B across eight acquisitions in Q4. Notable transactions included u-blox, a major Swiss GNSS positioning provider, taken private by Advent for$ 1.3B, and Firefly Aerospace's $855M acquisition of SciTec, a national security sensing company. This brings 2025 exits to$ 3.3B across 20 transactions, marking the second-highest exit value in Distribution and a new record for exit activity. Since 2009, 87% of exits in this layer have been acquisitions. Two consecutive record years for GEOINT exits may signal a turning point with stronger outcomes within reach. # Applications Specialized hardware and software that utilizes data from space-based assets like Uber TOTAL EQUITY INVESTMENT (PAST 36 MONTHS) $54.4B This page QUARTERLY INVESTMENT SOURCE Applications saw \(4.2B in Q4 across 40 deals. Early-stage activity remained subdued, down \(57\%\) YoY, while growth-stage and late-stage rose \(24\%\) and \(65\%\), respectively, driving 2025 to the highest late-stage concentration on record. GEOINT accounted for \(82\%\) of 2025 funding in the layer and \(71\%\) over the past three years, well above historical levels. VCs continued to dominate deal volume at \(90\%\), above the three-year average of \(87\%\), and contributed the largest share of capital over the same period at \(45\%\). INVESTMENT GEOGRAPHY North America led global investment in every quarter over the past three years, consistent with the pattern across other layers. Asia briefly overtook North America during the e-commerce LBS boom, but slowing Chinese activity has shifted momentum toward India, with Israel and Japan also emerging as key markets. Europe recorded a three-year high in 2025, up 3.3x YoY and the second-highest year since 2009. Germany led with $2.2B, driven by defense company Helsing ($ 1.2B) and Quantum Systems ( $0.4B), each raised in under a year. The UK followed with$ 0.9B, with investments across autonomy, climate, logistics, and enterprise intelligence. Portugal rose to third, led primarily by its largest defense company, Tekever. TOP DEALS THIS QUARTER <table><tr><td>COMPANY</td><td>ROUND</td><td>AMOUNT</td></tr><tr><td>Physical Intelligence</td><td>Series B</td><td>$600 M</td></tr><tr><td>Chaos</td><td>Series D</td><td>$510 M</td></tr><tr><td>Applotronik</td><td>Series B</td><td>$331 M</td></tr><tr><td>GoBrands</td><td>Series I</td><td>$250 M</td></tr><tr><td>Quantum Systems</td><td>Series C</td><td>$233 M</td></tr><tr><td>KoBold Metals</td><td>Series C</td><td>$163 M</td></tr><tr><td>Einride</td><td>Series D</td><td>$100 M</td></tr><tr><td>RapidSOS</td><td>Series D</td><td>$100 M</td></tr><tr><td>HavocAI</td><td>Series B</td><td>$85 M</td></tr><tr><td>Neros Technologies</td><td>Series B</td><td>$75 M</td></tr></table> The top 10 list included six growth-stage and four late-stage rounds, reflecting a fast-scaling set of leading innovators across emerging themes, spanning physical AI, defense, energy, and direct-to-device SatCom, while also signaling a rebound in GPS Applications centered on established category leaders. U.S. companies accounted for $95\%$ of total value, alongside one each from Germany and Sweden. Top deals included Physical Intelligence's Series B to build a "universal brain" for robots to perform complex real-world tasks, and CHAOS Industries's Series D to scale counter-drone manufacturing and expand its networked sensing fabric. AVERAGEROUND SIZE In 2025, Applications reflected continued early-stage softness but a broadening growth-stage market. Average Seed and Series A round sizes declined $10\%$ and $19\%$ , respectively. While Series B averages also fell, participation expanded as deal count increased and funding normalized beyond a handful of outlier rounds. Series C showed the clearest step-up, as leaders in defense (Saronic, CHAOS, Helsing, Tekever, Forterra, Quantum Systems) and physical AI (Figure AI, Unitree, Coco Robotics, Deep Robotics) raised larger follow-on financings and more new names reached scale. BY SECTOR $^6$ · CUMULATIVE ROUND SHARE BY SECTOR $\cdot$ CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT AMOUNT GPS has dominated round share since 2009 at $71\%$ . However, rounds have declined consistently since the 2018 peak, with $78\%$ fewer rounds in 2025. GEOINT and SatCom have steadily gained share with GEOINT surpassed GPS for the first time in 2024. In 2025, GEOINT again saw the most activity, and together with SatCom accounted for $56\%$ of rounds. AI-based open-source models and the proliferation of satellite connectivity are set to unlock new Applications, while GPS growth hinges on breakthroughs in accuracy, coverage, and resilience. Over $92 \%$ of GEOINT funding has occurred in the past six years. After first surpassing $1.0 \mathrm{~B}$ in 2020, annual GEOINT investment surged to a record $\$ 24.7 \mathrm{~B}$ in 2025. Meta’s $\$ 14.3 \mathrm{~B}$ investment in Scale AI drove much of this, but even excluding it, 2025 remains the strongest year, $51 \%$ above the prior peak. Defense- led demand for direct- to- device and edge capabilities—particularly in maritime and signals intelligence—has also made 2025 the strongest year for SatCom. GRADUATION RATE EXITS BY INDUSTRY Applications has the largest early-stage cohort and highest graduation rates relative to other layers, with at least $57\%$ of companies at each stage advancing to the next round. While Series C remains the toughest transition, companies that reach it are far more likely to scale into late-stage financing: $64\%$ go on to Series D and then $60\%$ reach Series E, materially outperforming Infrastructure. This demonstrates a capacity for scaling, driven by broad commercial appeal, validated demand, adaptable business models, and deep capital markets. Q4 saw $5.0B in exits across eleven deals, including one IPO and ten acquisitions, driven by DoorDash's $3.9B acquisition of Deliveroo. This signals the near-total maturation of LBS in the local commerce and delivery market. Navan, an all-in-one corporate travel management platform, went public at a $6.2B valuation. Total 2025 exit value reached $18.7B (90% acquisitions), breaking a three-year liquidity drought. With favorable conditions emerging, category leaders are preparing for 2026 debuts: Lime and Strava in LBS, Einride in autonomous freight, while Deep Robotics positioned itself within the first wave of public humanoid robotics firms. # Path to Exit Private market investment data up to and at the point of exit TOP 10 EXITS BY VALUE (SINCE 2009) <table><tr><td>COMPANY</td><td>TECH LAYER</td><td>EXIT TYPE</td><td>EXIT VALUATION</td><td>YEAR</td></tr><tr><td>Uber</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$76 B</td><td>2019</td></tr><tr><td>Didi Chuxing</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$68 B</td><td>2021</td></tr><tr><td>Meituan</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$53 B</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>Ansys</td><td>Infra</td><td>Acquisition</td><td>$35 B</td><td>2025</td></tr><tr><td>DoorDash</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$32 B</td><td>2020</td></tr><tr><td>Collins Aerospace</td><td>Infra</td><td>Acquisition</td><td>$23 B</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>Full Truck Alliance</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$21 B</td><td>2021</td></tr><tr><td>Lyft</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$21 B</td><td>2019</td></tr><tr><td>Snap</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$20 B</td><td>2017</td></tr><tr><td>Samsara</td><td>App</td><td>IPO</td><td>$12 B</td><td>2021</td></tr></table> The top 10 exits have a combined value of \(359B, equivalent to 87% of total space economy investment since 2009. U.S. and Chinese companies in the Satellites industry account for the entire top 10 list. Eight Applications company IPOs make up \(84\%\) of the total value, including seven in LBS and one in logistics. The remaining two Infrastructure exits were both acquisitions: Collins Aerospace, a GPS hardware provider, and Ansys, a global leader in engineering simulation software acquired by Synopsys in Q3 2025. MEDIAN VALUATION STEP-UP AT ACQUISITION The median valuation step-up at acquisition since 2009 is $2.1\mathrm{x}$ , with 2025 activity tracking at $2.2\mathrm{x}$ . Step-ups peaked at $2.8\mathrm{x}$ in 2021 driven by strong activity in Applications. The current market remains subdued: even as acquisition activity picks up, deals are showing no outsized premiums, with strategic buyers emphasizing value and capability fit. A rebound in exit multiples may follow if broader activity returns and revives competitive bidding. AVG. FUNDING RAISED PRIOR TO EXIT Applications companies raised an average of \(2.7B before IPO—nearly 10x more than Infrastructure and 19x more than Distribution at exit. Infrastructure demands larger upfront capital to build technical moats and mature market position, leading to higher funding at acquisition despite less late-stage equity. Distribution companies raise the least overall, with earlier exits often driven by technology differentiation rather than prolonged capital needs. By contrast, funding differences in M&A were far smaller, as low-value acquisitions drove down the average pre-exit funding. REVENUE MULTIPLE AT IPO/SPAC One IPO took place in Q4. Corporate travel management platform Navan went public at a \(6.2B valuation and a 9.1x revenue multiple, in line with the 2025 median of 9.2x. Multiples have continued to normalize since the 2021-2022 peak, when IPOs priced at 27-29x. The recent strength in space and defense stocks, alongside broader market highs and a growing pipeline of late-stage category leaders, may signal an IPO window reopening as investor sentiment recovers from the SPAC hangover. In 2021, SPACs priced at a median 47.9x revenue multiple versus 14.6x for traditional IPOs. TOP ACQUIRERS BY COUNT ACQUISITION VOLUME - CASH INVESTMENT AND DEAL COUNT <table><tr><td>ACQUIRER</td><td>#</td><td>SECTORS OF INTEREST</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Infrastructure</td></tr><tr><td>Redwire</td><td>10</td><td>Satellites - Manufacture, Em. Industries</td></tr><tr><td>Safran Group</td><td>10</td><td>Launch - Small Launch Satellites - Manufacture</td></tr><tr><td>Voyager</td><td>7</td><td>Satellites - Manufacture, Em. Industries</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Distribution</td></tr><tr><td>Hexagon</td><td>28</td><td>Satellites - GPS, GEOINT</td></tr><tr><td>Trimble</td><td>18</td><td>Satellites - GPS, GEOINT</td></tr><tr><td>ESRI</td><td>13</td><td>Satellites - GEOINT</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3">Applications</td></tr><tr><td>Foodpanda</td><td>30</td><td>Satellites - GPS</td></tr><tr><td>Just Eat</td><td>29</td><td>Satellites - GPS</td></tr><tr><td>Trimble</td><td>26</td><td>Satellites - GPS, GEOINT</td></tr></table> Trimble leads in total acquisitions and ranks among the top three in both Applications and Distribution. In Distribution, GEOINT giants drive activity with a focus on multi-modal sensor aggregation and 3D spatial creation, led by Hexagon. Other active acquirers include Speedcast (SatCom), Snap, and Garmin (GPS). In Infrastructure, Redwire and Safran Group are the most active with 10 acquisitions, followed by Voyager, L3Harris and Maxar. Satellite Manufacturing is the dominant theme, with Voyager and Redwire distinguished by their high exposure to Emerging Industries. As prolonged market dislocation strains weaker companies, consolidation intensifies with larger firms enhancing supply chains, expanding technical differentiation, and acquiring top talent. Many are mid-market plays anchored in competitive positioning—lonQ, for example, made four strategic acquisitions in 2025 to broaden its offerings and deepen vertical integration for space-based quantum communications. Q4 saw record activity with 28 deals. A total of $45.6B in acquisitions closed in 2025, the second-highest year for acquisition value with record activity at 91 deals. MOST VALUABLE PRIVATE COMPANIES BY LAYER9 SpaceX remains the world's most valuable private company at \(800B, lifting the total valuations of Infrastructure companies on this list to \)892B—3.3x Applications at \(270B. Infrastructure added a wave of new entrants in 2025, 10 in Q4 alone, including Project Prometheus, K2 Space, Castelion, ICEYE, narrowing the historical gap in company count versus Applications. Applications valuation growth remains strong across Defense, Robotics, AI and Mobility in spite of headwinds in LBS and Logistics. Waymo leads Applications at \)45B, followed by GEOINT players Figure AI (\(39.0B), Anduril (\)30.5B), and Scale AI (\(30.2B). Distribution is also expanding with GEOINT driving 51% of its value, propelled by companies developing core technologies to scale spatial computing and physical AI. # Definitions Six industries and three technology layers constitute the space economy # Space Economy: Activities enabled by space that benefit life on Earth and beyond. » Every business that relies on orbital access to deliver its value from Planet Labs, a company imaging every inch of the ground from space on a daily basis, to Pokémon GO, a hit mobile game that works using GPS signals from satellites. # Tech Layers: The specialized capabilities or services to identify and improve complex or technical work informed by the 2020 NASA Technology Taxonomy. » Infrastructure: Hardware and software to build, launch, and operate space-based assets Distribution: Hardware and software to connect, process, and manage data from space-based assets » Applications: Specialized hardware and software that utilizes data from space-based assets # Industries: Segmentation of economic activities performed by space businesses. Six industries constitute the space economy. The largest, Satellites, accounts for $86\%$ of investment capital into the space economy over the last decade, while Launch accounts for $11\%$ . Emerging Industries, consisting of Stations, Logistics, Lunar, Industrials industries, collectively account for just $3\%$ . # Sectors: The specialization within each industry typically associated with a market. Satellites: GPS, GEOINT, SatCom, Manufacturing & Components Launch: Small, Medium, Heavy, Brokerage, Spaceport Operations Stations: Habitats, Services Logistics: SSA, On-orbit Servicing, Debris Mitigation Lunar: Transport, Construction, Deep Space Satellites » Industrials: Manufacturing & Assembly, Mining & Minerals, Energy Generation & Storage # Conclusion With \(17.0B invested across 135 companies in Q4, total space economy investment has reached \)413.9B across 2,334 unique companies since 2009. 2025 surpassed 2021 to become the strongest year on record. VCs remained the most active investors, accounting for 84% of 2025 rounds and 40% of capital. Investors realized \(49.2B across 99 exits, including 91 acquisitions and 8 IPOs. There are multiple IPOs in progress and a growing slate of late-stage candidates, public-market pathways may begin to reopen as investor interest strengthens around established leaders. This historic year was driven primarily by a breakout in Infrastructure, with emerging leaders in Launch and Satellite Manufacturing scaling rapidly on the back of national security demand and heightened market pull for next-generation platforms across Emerging Industries. Infrastructure proved resilient even without large SpaceX rounds, underscoring the depth of growth capital available for ambitious world-class teams. Distribution also delivered a record year as scaled deployment creates urgency for next-gen PNT, spatial intelligence, and ubiquitous connectivity to come online and unlock downstream value. In Applications, GEOINT dominated investment as tailwinds in national security and physical AI pushed autonomy deeper into real-world operations, while legacy GPS-based companies consolidated—making 2025 a pivotal year. As long-term investors in this category, we believe the space economy holds tremendous potential. Starship will unlock a new paradigm in Infrastructure development and advancements in AI and communications will accelerate the integration of space technologies across industries. We are actively investing in entrepreneurs who see this future and are building transformative technologies to revolutionize global industries. # Select Portfolio Milestones SpaceX completes 11th Starship test before debuting upgraded prototype (CNBC) Impulse Space and Starfish Space demonstrate autonomous spacecraft proximity operations (SpaceNews) Muon Space to Adopt Starlink Laser Terminals on its Satellites (Via Satellite) » Septentrio demos tracking of Xona's first LEO PNT satellite (GPS World) GHGSat Successfully Launches Two New Satellites (GHGSat) LeoLabs lands interagency contract to feed TraCSS and track adversarial spacecraft (SpaceNews) Lunar Outpost Announces 7th Mission, Joining NASA's Artemis IV Team (Lunar Outpost) » A commercial space station startup now has a foothold in space (Ars Technica) # 9,070 Rounds Cataloged # 922 Exits Cataloged # $+\$ 3.9B$ Adjustments to prior periods View report data in interactive format: # Our Methodology The Space IQ: Space Investment Quarterly is based on data that Space Capital has been aggregating since 2012. The data was first made publicly available in 2017 and has become the source of record for private market investment activity and startup trends in the space economy. The data shown in this report is gathered from a number of sources across many categories, and no single piece of data can be added to the databases until confirmed by multiple sources. Space Capital portfolio company details are excluded from this report until publicly disclosed. Reported data is subject to change over time as previously undisclosed deals are added to our database. Below is a select list of data sources: # Public Announcements # Confidential Sources # News Press Releases - Diligence Process Bloomberg Pitchbook AngelList SEC Filings Company Management - CBC ${12}/{14}$ Crunchbase - SeedInvest Events Co-Investors Fortune - Mattermark - Mattermark 1. 实验原理 - Commercial Partners SpaceNews CB Insights CB Insights # About Space Capital Space Capital is a venture capital firm with $450 million AUM investing at the intersection of space technology and global markets. Our unparalleled track record of pioneering investment in the category is underpinned by the deep operational expertise of our partners who've built advanced rockets and satellites, founded successful space companies, and driven major exits, including the$ 500M sale of Skybox Imaging to Google as CEO. We literally wrote the book on the subject with The Space Economy, published by Wiley. # Assets This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which means content cannot be altered from its original form and must include Space Capital attribution. Click here to view a copy of this license. # Contact Media Inquiries media@spacecapital.com Data and Investment Inquiries research@spacecapital.com X # SPACE CAPITAL Front cover image: A view of the New Glenn first stage booster sitting pretty on the Jaclyn barge after Blue Origin became the second company to achieve a booster landing back on Earth. Photo credit: Dave Limp, Blue Origin © Space Capital 2025