2015年-世界发展银行全球_Socioeconomic_Impact_of_the_Crisis_in_North_Mali_on_Displaced_People_32页_1mb

Socioeconomic Impact of the Crisis in North Mali on Displaced People

Core Content

This paper examines the socioeconomic impact of the 2012 crisis in Mali on internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, and returnees. It uses a mixed-methods approach combining a face-to-face baseline survey with monthly mobile phone follow-up interviews, allowing for continuous and detailed monitoring of welfare changes in hard-to-reach populations.

Main Points

• Crisis Overview: The 2012 crisis in Mali, triggered by a secessionist movement and subsequent conflict, led to significant displacement. The crisis culminated in a coup d'état and resulted in over 500,000 people being displaced, with the majority being IDPs and a smaller number becoming refugees.

• Displacement Patterns:

  • The majority of displaced people left in April 2012 when Gao, Kidal, and Timbuktu were taken over by rebel groups.
  • A second wave of displacement occurred in June 2012 due to fighting between the MNLA and Jihadist factions.
  • A third wave in January 2013 followed the French intervention.

• Ethnic Composition:

  • IDPs and returnees are predominantly Songhai (75% and 71% respectively), while refugees are mostly Kel Tamasheq (56% in Niger, 69% in Mauritania).
  • Ethnicity played a significant role in determining where people fled to: Kel Tamasheq and Arabs left the country, while Songhai moved towards Bamako.

• Household Characteristics:

  • IDPs and returnees tend to be better educated and wealthier than the average person in the North.
  • Refugees have a similar education level to the average person in the North.
  • Before the crisis, the average household size for IDPs and returnees was 13 and 8, respectively, with most households being affected by internal displacement or migration.

• Occupations:

  • Commerce was the main occupation for IDPs (51%), refugees (37%), and returnees (34%).
  • Civil servants were more common among refugees (18%) compared to IDPs (9%) and returnees (14%).
  • Agriculture and pastoralism were less common among displaced populations.

• Welfare Impact:

  • The crisis significantly reduced the welfare of IDPs, refugees, and returnees, particularly in terms of income, employment, and asset ownership.
  • A large percentage of durable goods (20–60%) and livestock (75–90%) were lost.
  • Despite the initial decline, by February 2015, most IDPs and refugees had returned to pre-crisis levels of food consumption and employment, while returnees were generally less affected.

• Returnee Situation:

  • Returnees, who had fewer assets to begin with, experienced less loss and were generally better off than IDPs and refugees.
  • Returnees were able to regain employment after returning home, while employment levels for IDPs and refugees in Mauritania continued to decline.

• Return Intentions:

  • Most IDPs (81%) and refugees (91%) expressed a desire to return home, but few had started planning their return.
  • The primary condition for return was a viable peace accord (35% for IDPs, 59% for refugees).
  • For IDPs, better job prospects in Bamako were a reason for not returning, while for refugees in Mauritania, insecurity in the North kept them away.

• Methodology:

  • The Listening to Displaced People Survey (LDPS) used a combination of face-to-face interviews and mobile phone follow-ups.
  • The survey included three sub-samples: IDPs in Bamako, refugees in Niger and Mauritania, and returnees in Gao, Timbuktu, and Kidal.
  • The mobile phone method allowed for frequent and flexible data collection, even in areas inaccessible to enumerators.

• Data Collection:

  • The sample size was capped at 501 respondents.
  • Baseline interviews were conducted between June and August 2014, with monthly phone interviews starting in August 2014 and continuing until February 2015.
  • The response rate was high, with minimal attrition, indicating the effectiveness of mobile phone surveys in longitudinal studies.

Key Information

• Impact on Assets:

  • IDPs and refugees lost over 60% of their durable goods and 75–90% of their livestock.
  • Returnees lost about 20% of their assets.

• Impact on Employment:

  • Employment levels dropped significantly after the crisis, from 70% to 26% by June 2014.
  • By December 2014, employment levels had improved for IDPs, refugees, and returnees.
  • Returnees were able to regain employment after returning home.

• Impact on Education:

  • The majority of IDPs and returnees had at least primary education, while the majority of the population in the North had no formal education.
  • School attendance dropped significantly during the crisis, with many children being taken out of school.

• Long-Term Recovery:

  • By February 2015, most IDPs and refugees had returned to pre-crisis levels of food consumption and employment.
  • The paper highlights the importance of monitoring welfare changes over time and the potential of mobile phone surveys for this purpose.

Conclusion

The study provides critical insights into the socioeconomic impact of the crisis on displaced populations in Mali, emphasizing the role of ethnicity in displacement decisions and the varying levels of impact across different groups. It also underscores the importance of long-term data collection and the effectiveness of mobile phone surveys in capturing these dynamics, especially in conflict-affected and hard-to-reach areas.