2023-05-18-联合国-2023年中世界经济形势与展望报告_28页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of World Economic Situation and Prospects (Mid-Year Update)

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) mid-year update provides an analysis of the global economic landscape in 2023, highlighting the challenges posed by weak growth, elevated inflation, and heightened uncertainties. The report underscores the long-term structural issues that continue to affect economic performance and the ongoing impact of the post-pandemic recovery, Ukraine war, climate change, and monetary policy shifts.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

Global growth is projected to slow from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2023, with a slight upward revision from the January forecast.
In 2024, growth is expected to pick up to 2.5%, but it will still be below the 2000–2019 average of 3.1%.
The United States and China are key drivers of the improved outlook, with the U.S. projected to grow at 1.1% in 2023 and China at 5.3%.
Developing countries, particularly in Africa and Latin America, face weaker growth prospects, with GDP per capita growth expected to remain marginal.

Inflation Trends

Global inflation is projected to decline from 7.5% in 2022 to 5.2% in 2023, driven by lower food and energy prices and softening demand.
However, it remains above the 2000–2019 average of 3.1%.
In developed economies, core inflation remains high due to rising service prices and robust wage growth.
In developing economies, inflation remains elevated, especially in Western Asia, South Asia, and Africa, with food inflation still above 5% in most of these regions.

Labour Market Developments

Labour markets in Europe, Japan, and North America remain tight, with low unemployment rates and persistent worker shortages.
Employment rates have increased more for women than for men, narrowing the gender gap but not eliminating it.
In China, the urban unemployment rate has declined to 5.5%, though still above pre-pandemic levels.
In Africa, labour market conditions remain challenging, with high informality, gender gaps, and rising youth unemployment.

International Trade

Global trade is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2023, slightly higher than the previous forecast of near-zero growth.
Trade in services is growing faster than goods, supported by the recovery of travel and tourism.
International tourism is expected to reach 80–95% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023.
Supply chain pressures and shipping costs have eased, but geopolitical tensions and monetary tightening continue to constrain trade growth.

Financial Market Dynamics

Global financial markets have shown resilience despite banking sector turmoil in the U.S. and Europe.
The collapse of SVB, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse in 2023 highlighted systemic vulnerabilities in the financial system.
Central banks in developed economies have paused or slowed rate hikes, while developing countries face tightening financial conditions and increased borrowing costs.
Emerging economies have seen recovery in capital flows, but credit spreads have widened, limiting access to finance.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Challenges

Monetary policy tightening continues in developed and developing countries, but the pace has slowed due to easing inflation.
Developed economies are ahead of the tightening cycle, with the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to implement one or two more rate hikes in 2023.
Developing economies face increased debt vulnerabilities, with external debt service rising in Africa and rising interest rates further constraining fiscal space.
Fiscal deficits and public debt as a share of GDP have declined in both developed and developing countries.

Key Information

Major Central Banks: The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have reduced the pace of rate hikes, with the former hinting at a pause in its tightening cycle.
Debt and Financial Stability: The aggressive interest rate hikes in developed economies have exacerbated debt vulnerabilities in developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
Impact on Development: High inflation and limited fiscal space are threatening progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, especially in poor countries.
Unconventional Monetary Policy: The shift from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) has exposed systemic risks, especially in developing economies.

Regional Economic Outlook

Region	2023 Growth	2024 Growth	Notes
Developed Economies	1.0%	1.2%	Resilient consumer spending, but financial conditions remain tight.
United States	1.1%	1.0%	Consumer spending remains strong, but may soften.
European Union	0.9%	1.5%	Lower gas prices and strong service demand help growth.
Japan	1.2%	1.0%	Slow growth, with modest revisions.
Africa	3.4%	3.5%	Weak growth, with limited fiscal space and rising debt burdens.
East Asia	4.7%	4.3%	Strong recovery, but growth is expected to moderate.
China	5.3%	4.5%	Reopening has boosted growth, but it may slow in 2024.
South Asia	4.7%	5.8%	Growth is expected to rise slightly, but challenges remain.
Western Asia	3.1%	3.3%	Inflation remains high, and growth is modest.
Latin America and the Caribbean	1.4%	2.4%	Weak growth, with financial constraints and high unemployment.

Conclusion

The global economy is resilient but fragile, with mixed growth prospects and persistent inflationary pressures. While developed economies show signs of recovery, developing countries continue to face severe challenges due to debt vulnerabilities, financial constraints, and structural issues. The transition from QE to QT has created new risks, especially in emerging markets, and the policy trade-offs between inflation control and financial stability remain complex.