SEM-美国电力的未来简报（英文）-2021.2-37页_3mb

The Future of Electric Power in the U.S. – Summary

Core Content

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted a study on the future of the U.S. electric grid, emphasizing the need for a resilient, secure, and sustainable power system. The report highlights the importance of understanding the evolving nature of the grid, the challenges posed by technological and social changes, and the need for coordinated efforts among federal and state agencies, industry, and research institutions.

Main Viewpoints

• Grid Vulnerability: The U.S. electric grid is increasingly vulnerable to both cyber and physical disruptions, especially as it becomes more interconnected and reliant on other infrastructures.
• Resilience as a Priority: Ensuring the resilience of the grid against large-area, long-duration blackouts is a key concern, particularly in light of recent events in Texas.
• Need for Innovation: The grid's future depends on technological innovation, including clean generation, energy storage, power electronics, and advanced communication and control systems.
• Underinvestment in Innovation: The U.S. is underinvesting in energy research and development (RD&D), which is critical for addressing the challenges of a modern grid.
• Policy and Legal Challenges: There are significant legal and regulatory hurdles that need to be addressed to enable the deployment of new technologies and business models in the power sector.
• Social Equity and Affordability: The system must ensure affordability and equity, particularly for low-income households, and balance these with sustainability and reliability.
• Interdependencies: The grid's resilience is influenced by its interdependencies with other infrastructure systems such as natural gas, communications, and cybersecurity.

Key Recommendations

Overarching Recommendations

• Recommendation 6: The Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should jointly establish a "visioning" process to systematically assess potential large-area, long-duration grid disruptions.
• Recommendation 7: DHS and DOE should collaborate to improve preparation, emergency response, and recovery from large-scale blackouts.
• Recommendation 9: State entities should work with local utilities and stakeholders to evaluate backup power systems and increase investments in resilience-enhancing technologies.

Sector-Specific Recommendations

• Recommendation 3.6: DOE, state legislatures, and foundations should support social research and policy analysis to identify new regulatory and industry structures that promote innovation and equity.
• Recommendation 3.7: DOE should expand seed grants for state programs that support innovation in business models and technology adoption.
• Recommendation 3.8: State regulators should support policies that enable innovation in utility business models and rate design, especially for publicly owned utilities.
• Recommendation 3.10: Congress should expand funding for publicly owned utilities to invest in grid modernization.
• Recommendation 3.11: State regulators should investigate changes in industry structure, security, and pricing to align with the deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) and address equity in energy access.
• Recommendation 4.1: Improve awareness and understanding of the innovation system.
• Recommendation 4.4: At least double public expenditure on innovation, primarily from the federal government.
• Recommendation 4.6: Spend resources wisely by using proven methods for managing and evaluating innovation programs.
• Recommendation 5.1 & 5.2: Develop and commercialize clean generation and storage technologies with collaboration between government and industry.
• Recommendation 5.3–5.8: Invest in secure, reliable, and interoperable communication, automation, and simulation technologies.
• Recommendation 5.9 & 5.10: Fund training and retraining programs for the future workforce.
• Recommendation 6.1 & 6.2: Fund industry-relevant research and support the development of new cybersecurity frameworks.
• Recommendation 6.3 & 6.10: Establish cybersecurity training programs and expand industry interactions through exercises and assessments.
• Recommendation 6.4 & 6.5: Create a joint task force to identify legislative authority for early warning systems and improve information sharing about cybersecurity threats.
• Recommendation 6.6 & 6.7: Develop cybersecurity regulations and guidelines for interdependencies with other infrastructure systems.
• Recommendation 6.8: Initiate a process to cover the costs of implementing protections against nation-state attacks and other threats.

Drivers of Change

• Evolving Demand: Changes in how electricity is used and the growth of flexible loads.
• Decarbonization: Efforts to reduce carbon emissions and eliminate conventional pollutants.
• Grid Edge Changes: The increasing presence of distributed energy resources (DERs) and the need for new regulatory and market structures.
• Non-Dispatchable Renewables: The integration of wind and solar power, which pose challenges for grid stability.
• Social Equity: Addressing energy poverty and ensuring equitable access to clean energy.
• Employment Concerns: The impact of the energy transition on jobs and workforce skills.
• Global Supply Chains: The tension between global product innovation and national security needs.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Technological Complexity: The grid is becoming more complex and requires a system-centric approach to cybersecurity and resiliency.
• Workforce Shortages: There is a critical shortage of cybersecurity professionals, especially in industrial control systems (ICS).
• Regulatory Gaps: There is a need for updated legal frameworks and regulatory policies to support the deployment of new technologies and business models.
• Investment Gaps: The U.S. lags behind its international peers in energy RD&D investment and needs to increase funding significantly.

Conclusion

The U.S. electric grid is at a critical juncture, requiring coordinated action across multiple sectors and stakeholders. A resilient, secure, and sustainable power system is essential for the nation's economic and social well-being. The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, policy reform, and investment in both technology and human capital to ensure the grid can meet future challenges.

Key Takeaways

• The grid must balance affordability, equity, reliability, and resilience.
• Cybersecurity and resiliency are critical for the future of the grid.
• Innovation is the foundation of a modern grid, and the U.S. must invest more in RD&D.
• Policy and legal reforms are needed to support the integration of new technologies and maintain a competitive and equitable market.
• Collaboration is essential among government, industry, and research institutions to ensure a safe and secure power system for the future.