2004年-世界发展银行全球_Honduras_-_Development_Policy_Review___Accelerating_Broad-based_Growth_210页_16mb

Honduras Development Policy Review: Accelerating Broad-Based Growth

Core Content Overview

This Honduras Development Policy Review (DPR), prepared by the World Bank in November 2004, focuses on accelerating broad-based economic growth and improving poverty reduction through policy reforms. The review is closely aligned with the Honduras Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and aims to provide an analytical basis for the growth strategy outlined in the PRSP, as well as support for the Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC) approved by the International Development Association (IDA) in June 2004.

Main Views and Key Information

Country Context and Economic Performance

• Honduras is a lower middle-income country with a per capita income of US$920 in 2002 (Atlas methodology).
• The population is approximately 7 million, growing at 2.4% annually, with 42% under 15 years old.
• 64% of the population lives below the poverty line, and 45% in extreme poverty.
• Rural areas have a 75% poverty incidence, compared to 57% in urban areas.
• Honduras has poor economic growth historically, with an average per capita growth rate of 0.8% (1960–2000), significantly below the Latin American average of 1.7% and developing countries' average of 1.2%.
• However, it has experienced low inflation and minimal output volatility compared to other countries in the region.

Economic Reforms and Structural Changes

• In the early 1990s, Honduras initiated reforms including trade liberalization, exchange rate flexibility, financial market liberalization, tariff adjustments, and legal framework development to strengthen property rights.
• These reforms were not sustained due to inconsistent economic management across political cycles, leading to reversals in some policies before elections.
• A major external shock occurred in October 1998 with Hurricane Mitch, which caused significant damage and temporarily halted poverty reduction.
• Over the last decade, Honduras has seen diversification of exports, reducing vulnerability to terms of trade shocks.
• Foreign remittances have grown significantly, reaching US$800 million in 2003, or 12% of GDP, and have helped sustain the real exchange rate and domestic absorption without increasing the debt burden.

External Sector and CAFTA

• Honduras is the most open economy in Central America, with a trade ratio of ~90% (40% of GDP in exports, 50% in imports).
• It is expected to benefit from the CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement) once ratified, which will increase market access for Central American producers in the U.S. and extend reciprocal access to U.S. goods.
• CAFTA is anticipated to promote export-led growth and employment creation, but also require internal adjustments to compete with external competition and declining tariff revenues.
• The agreement will also lock in recent reforms in sectors such as telecoms, financial services, and energy, and modernize norms and regulations in areas like government procurement and intellectual property rights.

Fiscal and External Deficits

• The public sector deficit has been progressively deteriorating, reaching 4.6% of GDP in 2003.
• This is mainly due to declines in public enterprise surpluses and erosion of tax revenues.
• Tax exemptions, weak tax administration, and declining import duties have contributed to the loss of tax revenue.
• The government implemented a three-stage tax reform (October 2002, May 2003, December 2003), which successfully reversed the earlier tax revenue decline.

Public Expenditures and Wages

• Total public expenditures have remained relatively stable, but the composition has changed in a way that hampers economic production.
• Current expenditures and central bank losses have increased, while capital expenditures have declined.
• The public sector wage bill has grown from 9% of GDP in 1997 to 13.6% in 2003, driven by special wage regimes for various public sector employee groups.
• These regimes are not performance-based and are set through political negotiations, leading to declining productivity and worker morale.

Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework

• The program aims to reverse fiscal deterioration and create a basis for faster growth and poverty reduction.
• It targets 4.5% annual growth by 2006 and gradual inflation reduction to match main trading partners' levels by 2008.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to decline progressively to 3.0% of GDP in 2004, 2.5% in 2005, and 1.7% in 2006.
• This adjustment is expected to reduce crowding-out in the financial sector and increase private investment.
• The strategy includes increasing public investment in infrastructure, reforms to improve governance, and structural reforms to enhance public sector efficiency and financial sector soundness.

Key Determinants of Growth

• The growth accounting framework indicates that low factor productivity is the main reason for Honduras's below-average growth.
• A cross-country study by Loayza, Fajnzylber, and Calderón (2002) identifies twelve key variables that influence growth, including investment, human capital, infrastructure, and institutional quality.
• The report uses regression results to predict future growth and highlights the need for policy improvements in these areas.

Governance and Institutional Reforms

• The report emphasizes governance reforms, including public expenditure management, civil service reform, and judicial reform.
• The National Anti-Corruption Council (CAN) has proposed short-term actions to combat corruption.
• The World Bank Institute (WBI) and other organizations have contributed to the review, highlighting the importance of transparency and institutional strengthening.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The DPR concludes that fiscal discipline, external balance, factor productivity, and institutional reforms are critical for accelerating growth.
• It recommends improving education access and quality, deepening financial markets, enhancing public infrastructure, and reforming governance and transparency.
• The CAFTA is seen as a key opportunity for economic growth, but requires careful implementation and adjustments to ensure sustainable development.

Summary of Key Recommendations

• Education: Increase investment in education, particularly primary and secondary, and improve outcomes.
• Infrastructure: Focus on roads, telecommunications, and low-income housing to meet infrastructure needs.
• Financial Sector: Strengthen financial institutions, deepen financial markets, and improve access to credit.
• Governance: Implement public expenditure reforms, civil service improvements, and judicial reforms to enhance transparency and reduce corruption.
• CAFTA Implementation: Prepare for CAFTA's impact, including market access, competition, and reforms in protected sectors.

Annexes and Supporting Materials

• Annex A: Key determinants of growth in Honduras.
• Annex B: Evolution of the central government wage bill.
• Annex C: Main providers of secondary education.
• Annex D: Estimated cost of raising education outcomes.
• Annex E: Preliminary assessment of the Honduran National Innovation System.
• Annex F: Implications of CAFTA for Honduras.

This review provides a comprehensive analysis of Honduras's economic and social development challenges and outlines a pathway for sustainable growth and poverty reduction through targeted policy reforms and institutional improvements.