2025-12-17-莱坊-Warehouse_Market_in_Poland_Q3_2025_6页_747kb

报告摘要

Warehouse Market in Poland - Q3 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Polish warehouse market remains a key player in the region, showing robust demand and strong investment activity. This report provides an overview of the market dynamics, including supply, take-up, vacancy rates, rental levels, and investment trends in Q3 2025.

Key Market Trends

Demand and Leasing Activity

Total take-up: Nearly 4.5 million sq m in Q1–Q3 2025, a 20% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Q3 alone: 1.6 million sq m leased, a 42% year-on-year rise.
Leasing focus: 47% of total leasing activity in Q1–Q3 2025 was focused on renegotiations, while 44% was new leases.
Leading regions: Warsaw, Central Poland, and Wroclaw accounted for over 60% of total take-up in Q3.
Sector drivers: Logistics operators and retail chains were the primary demand generators in Warsaw and Central Poland. Light manufacturing also gained traction in western and south-western Poland.

Supply and Development

Total warehouse stock: Exceeds 36.4 million sq m and continues to grow, though at a slower pace than 2021–2023.
New supply in Q1–Q3 2025: 1.55 million sq m, a 26% decline compared to the same period in 2024.
Development pipeline: 1.6 million sq m under construction at the end of Q3 2025, with a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase since Q2.
Pre-let space: 55% of space under construction was pre-let by the end of Q3, down from 59% in Q1.
Major development areas: Warsaw (527,000 sq m), Tricity (221,000 sq m), and Upper Silesia (190,000 sq m).

Vacancy Rates

Overall vacancy rate: 8.21% at the end of Q3 2025, down only slightly from previous quarters.
Regional variations:
- Warsaw: 5.2%
- Upper Silesia: 7.5%
- Central Poland: 9.5%
- Lower Silesia: 9.9%
- Poznań: 9.7%
- Tricity: 10.3%
- Szczecin: 2.1%
- Kraków: 3.3%
Market dynamics: Vacancy rates remain stable, with tenant activity primarily focused on lease renewals rather than expansion.

Rental Levels

Big-box logistics: Rents range from EUR 3.8 to EUR 5.0 per sq m per month.
Urban logistics: Rents are between EUR 5.0 and EUR 7.5 per sq m.
Highest rents: Recorded in Warsaw and Kraków, with rates up to EUR 7.5 and EUR 6.0, respectively.

Investment Market

Total investment volume: EUR 873 million in Q1–Q3 2025, an 18% increase from the same period in 2024.
Market share: The warehouse sector accounted for 34% of all real estate investment activity.
Investor trends: Global investors dominate the market, seeking stable and low-risk assets with long-term growth potential.
Prime yields: Remained stable at approximately 6.25% in Q3.

Regional Breakdown

Region	Existing Stock (sq m)	Vacancy Rate	New Supply (sq m)	Under Construction (sq m)	Take-up (sq m)	Asking Rents (EUR/sq m/month)	Unemployment Rate	Average Monthly Salary (PLN)
Warsaw	7,100,000	5.2%	57,000	530,000	470,000	3.8–7.5	4.4%	8,800
Upper Silesia	6,200,000	7.5%	20,000	190,000	165,000	4.0–6.0	4.3%	8,800
Central Poland	5,100,000	9.5%	145,000	90,000	250,000	3.8–4.5	6.2%	8,400
Lower Silesia	4,600,000	9.9%	0	110,000	280,000	4.0–4.7	5.2%	8,100
Poznań	3,600,000	9.7%	47,000	35,000	70,000	3.8–4.5	3.5%	8,200
Tricity	1,800,000	10.3%	8,800	220,000	110,000	3.8–4.5	5.2%	9,700
Szczecin	1,300,000	2.1%	0	80,000	130,000	3.8–4.5	7.3%	9,800
Kraków	1,170,000	3.3%	33,000	8,000	37,000	4.0–6.0	4.6%	7,600
Poland	36,440,000	8.2%	400,000	1,600,000	1,600,000	3.8–7.5	5.6%	8,500

Outlook

Expected growth: A rebound in industrial production and a resilient consumer market are expected to support further demand for logistics space.
Location strategies: Developers are expanding beyond traditional hubs to emerging locations such as western Poland (near the German border), Rzeszów, Kielce, Lublin, and the Kuyavian region.
Infrastructure: High-speed roads (5,200 km) and 400 km under construction are enhancing connectivity. There are 45 intermodal terminals and 4 cargo ports, alongside 7 cargo airports, supporting logistics growth.

Conclusion

Poland's warehouse market continues to be a strong and attractive investment opportunity, with stable rental levels, growing supply, and increasing demand from logistics operators and retail chains. Despite a slowdown in new supply compared to previous years, the market remains resilient, with a focus on lease renewals and strategic development in emerging regions.

Contact Information
Knight Frank Poland
Phone: +48 22 596 50 50
Website: www.KnightFrank.com.pl

Research Team