2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_74页_1mb

2012 Article IV Consultation with Peru: Summary

Core Content

The 2012 Article IV consultation with Peru, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's macroeconomic performance, outlook, and policy challenges. The consultation concluded in February 2013, following discussions in Lima from December 5 to 18, 2012. The key documents released included the Staff Report, Informational Annex, Public Information Notice (PIN), and a Statement by the Executive Director for Peru.

Main Views and Key Points

Macroeconomic Performance

• Growth and Stability: Peru maintained strong macroeconomic performance in 2012, with real GDP growth slowing to 6 1/3 percent, close to potential.
• Inflation: Inflation declined to 2 3/4 percent by end-2012, within the target band (1–3 percent). Core inflation remained subdued.
• Fiscal Position: The non-financial public sector (NFPS) achieved a surplus of over 2 percent of GDP, exceeding the 2012 budget's 1 percent target.
• Public Debt: Public debt remained low, at around 19.3 percent of GDP in 2012, and is expected to decline further to below 15 percent of GDP in the medium term.

Monetary Policy

• Exchange Rate Management: The BCRP intervened in the foreign exchange market with a net purchase of $13 billion in 2012 to prevent currency appreciation.
• Sterilization: The central bank sterilized liquidity through higher reserve requirements and the placement of its own securities, reducing the impact of capital inflows.
• Interest Rates: The policy rate remained unchanged at 4 1/4 percent, as core inflation was within the target and the economy was close to potential.

Capital Inflows and External Sector

• Capital Inflows: Net capital inflows reached over $16 billion in the first three quarters of 2012, with FDI accounting for about 50 percent.
• Current Account: The current account deficit widened to 3 1/2 percent of GDP in 2012, primarily due to lower export prices and strong import growth.
• Reserves: Gross international reserves reached $64 billion, which is adequate and among the highest in emerging markets.

Structural Reforms and Fiscal Framework

• Fiscal Reforms: A commission was appointed in July 2012 to revamp the fiscal framework, aiming to improve sustainability and reduce pro-cyclicality.
• Fiscal Rule: The current fiscal rule, which limits current expenditure growth to 4 percent and the deficit to 1 percent of GDP, has been modified to better align with public investment and social needs.
• 2013 Budget: The 2013 budget targets a fiscal surplus of 1.1 percent of GDP, with a structural surplus of about 1 percent of GDP, consistent with previous IMF recommendations.

Financial Sector

• Soundness: The financial sector remained stable, with low non-performing loans (NPL) at 1 3/4 percent as of August 2012.
• Credit Dollarization: Credit dollarization increased, with foreign currency credit accounting for 43 percent of total credit.
• Reserve Requirements: Reserve requirements on foreign liabilities were extended to 60 percent for liabilities with maturity up to 3 years and increased to 20 percent for those with maturity over 3 years.

Social and Political Challenges

• Social Tensions: Social conflicts, particularly related to extractive industries, remain a concern, with over 250 active conflicts.
• Wage Increases: Gradual wage increases for civil servants, including teachers and doctors, are part of the social inclusion strategy.
• Public Investment: Public investment accelerated in 2012, contributing to domestic demand growth.

Risks and Outlook

Short-Term Risks

• Downside Risks: A slowdown in China, a major trading partner, could lead to lower commodity prices, affecting exports and growth.
• Global Uncertainty: A prolonged period of weak U.S. growth and global risk aversion could also negatively impact Peru's economy.
• Upward Risks: Excess global liquidity and capital inflows could lead to overheating, credit booms, and asset price inflation.

Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth: The economy is expected to grow at around potential (6 percent) and inflation to stabilize around 2 percent.
• Current Account: The current account deficit is projected to moderate to about 3 percent of GDP.
• Fiscal Surpluses: Primary fiscal surpluses are expected to remain around 2 percent of GDP.
• Resilience and Productivity: The medium-term outlook depends on improving resilience to shocks and achieving productivity growth.

Policy Recommendations

• Maintain Flexibility: The policy stance should remain flexible to address both downside and upside risks from the global economy.
• Strengthen Fiscal Framework: The fiscal framework needs to be improved to better manage non-renewable resources and reduce pro-cyclicality.
• Enhance Social Inclusion: Continued efforts to promote inclusive growth and address social conflicts are essential.
• Support Infrastructure and Competitiveness: Addressing infrastructure bottlenecks and improving the business climate will be crucial for long-term growth.

Conclusion

Peru has maintained macroeconomic stability and strong growth over the past decade, but faces challenges in managing global spillovers, ensuring sustainable growth, and addressing social tensions. The 2013 budget and monetary policy are aligned with the IMF's recommendations, and structural reforms are expected to further enhance economic resilience and productivity.