> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** February 13, 2026 # Morning Insight: February 13, 2026 Linlin Gao Certification: Z0002332 gaolinlin@ghtt.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification: F03133175 wuyuchen@ghtt.com # Main Body # Commodity Market Insight: Tin: As macro pessimism gradually faded this week, tin prices staged a technical rebound, recovering from around RMB 360,000/tonne to just below the key RMB 400,000/tonne level, where some upward resistance has emerged. On the inventory side, warrants showed unusual movement yesterday, with warehouse stocks increasing by 3,780 tonnes in a single day, rising from 6,516 tonnes to 10,296 tonnes—an increase of over $50\%$ . Futures inventories are now above historical levels for the same period. This accumulation was mainly due to large deliveries by leading smelters holding hedging positions, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Meanwhile, hidden inventories held by traders and other intermediaries remain at relatively low levels, which could help accelerate inventory digestion. However, given the pace of downstream enterprises resuming operations after the holiday, normalization of inventory levels will still require time. Fundamentally, the spot market has already entered the Lunar New Year rhythm, with logistics gradually slowing and downstream solder producers largely on holiday. Pre-holiday restocking demand triggered by the earlier price correction has been mostly fulfilled. During the holiday period, key factors to monitor include changes in overseas macro policy, geopolitical developments, LME tin price movements, and conditions in major overseas producing regions. After the holiday, attention should shift to the pace of downstream production resumption and the speed at which visible inventories are digested under the backdrop of low hidden stocks. Chart 1: Market Snapshot <table><tr><td colspan="3">Market Snapshot</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 300 Index Futures</td><td>4716.2</td><td>0.07%</td></tr><tr><td>SSE 50 Index Futures</td><td>3091.6</td><td>-0.29%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 500 Index Futures</td><td>8342.4</td><td>1.24%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 1000 Index Futures</td><td>8260.2</td><td>1.00%</td></tr><tr><td>30Y T-bond Futures</td><td>112.8</td><td>-0.03%</td></tr><tr><td>10Y T-bond Futures</td><td>108.5</td><td>0.02%</td></tr><tr><td>5Y T-bond Futures</td><td>106.1</td><td>0.00%</td></tr><tr><td>2Y T-bond Futures</td><td>102.5</td><td>-0.02%</td></tr></table> Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # Open Interest Chart 2: Open Interest of IF Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 3: Open Interest of IH Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4: Open Interest of IC Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 5: Open Interest of IM Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # News Highlights: 1. China's Ministry of Commerce on Thursday expressed regret over the European Union's (EU's) decision to request the establishment of a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement panel in response to Chinese judicial rulings on standard essential patents (SEPs). China will handle the request properly in accordance with WTO dispute settlement procedures, and will resolutely defend its legitimate rights and interests, an official from the ministry's department of treaty and law said in response to a media query. On Feb. 12, Geneva time, the EU announced it would request the establishment of a WTO panel concerning its dispute with China over judicial rulings related to SEP licensing litigation. The official emphasized that China has always attached great importance to the protection of intellectual property rights (IPR). In strict compliance with WTO rules and its accession commitments, China has continuously improved its IPR legislation and enforcement, achieving results that are evident to all, the official noted. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's outstanding inclusive loans for small and micro businesses in 2025 totaled 37 trillion yuan (about 5.3 trillion U.S. dollars) by the end of the fourth quarter, which was up 11 percent year on year, according to data released by the National Financial Regulatory Administration on Thursday. Specifically, outstanding inclusive agriculture-related loans were at 14.2 trillion yuan by the end of the fourth quarter, an increase of 10.3 percent year on year, the data shows. By the end of the quarter, the total RMB and foreign-currency assets of China's banking institutions had climbed to 480 trillion yuan, up 8 percent year on year. The data also shows that the non-performing loan ratio of the country's commercial banks was 1.5 percent by the end of the fourth quarter. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, on Thursday announced that it will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan (about 144 billion U.S. dollars) outright reverse repo operation on Friday to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. The operation will have a fixed quantity and be carried out through interest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at multiple price levels. It will have a tenor of six months, or 182 days, according to the central bank. Outright reverse repo operations -- a tool the central bank introduced in October 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system -- are conducted each month with a tenor of no more than one year. These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkit, complementing previous measures such as temporary repos, temporary reverse repos, and the purchase and sale of treasury bonds. (Source: Xinhua) <table><tr><td colspan="2">Chart 6: Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">2026/2/11</td><td>Monthly Report on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI)</td></tr><tr><td>Monthly Report on Producer Price Index in the Industrial Sector</td></tr><tr><td>2026/2/13</td><td>Monthly Report on Sales Price Indexes of Commercial Residential Buildings</td></tr><tr><td>2026/2/28</td><td>Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development</td></tr></table> Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting business in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company's professional investors. 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Do not rely on this content for specific investment actions. # Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possesses equivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely reflects the author(s)' various hypotheses, insights, and analytical methods. The views expressed in this report do not represent the views of the Company or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. This statement is hereby declared. # Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy, cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect the Company's judgment as of the date of the report's release. 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