卡内基国际和平基金会-Trump-Will-Honor--One-China--Policy_5页_311kb

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Episode 78 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the China in the World podcast, hosted by Paul Haenle and featuring Evan Medeiros, discusses the significance of President Trump's phone call with President Xi Jinping on February 11, 2017, in which Trump reaffirmed the U.S. adherence to the "One China" policy. The conversation explores the implications of this decision for U.S.-China relations, the strategic importance of the policy, and the broader regional impact.

Main Points

1. Significance of the "One China" Policy

• The "One China" policy is a foundational element of the U.S.-China relationship, established in 1972 with the Shanghai Communiqué.
• It is based on the Three Communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act, which outline the U.S. stance on Taiwan's status.
• The policy is not merely a concession to China but is in the U.S. national interest, providing a stable basis for cooperation on other issues.

2. Trump's Initial Approach and Its Consequences

• Trump had previously criticized the "One China" policy, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. stance.
• His phone call with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and subsequent public statements raised concerns among Chinese officials and regional leaders.
• This approach was seen as using Taiwan as a bargaining chip, which could lead to increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan and regional instability.

3. Regional Reactions and Strategic Considerations

• Asian leaders generally do not want to choose sides between the U.S. and China.
• They prefer U.S. engagement and a counterbalance to China's influence, but are wary of U.S. actions that might provoke conflict.
• The reaffirmation of the "One China" policy was viewed as a positive step to reassure regional partners and maintain stability.

4. Future U.S.-China Relations

• While the "One China" policy has been reaffirmed, challenges remain, particularly with the evolving situation in Taiwan and the broader geopolitical tensions.
• The Trump administration must balance its interactions with China to avoid regional backlash and maintain strategic advantages.
• The episode highlights the importance of maintaining the policy as a basis for addressing other critical issues, such as trade, North Korea, and the South China Sea.

Key Information

• Date of Episode: February 11, 2017
• Host: Paul Haenle
• Guest: Evan Medeiros (Former Senior Director for Asia under Obama, Non-Resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment)
• Topic: U.S.-China relations and the implications of Trump's phone call with Xi Jinping
• Significance: The reaffirmation of the "One China" policy is critical for maintaining stability in U.S.-China relations and for enabling cooperation on other strategic issues.
• Regional Impact: Asian leaders value the stability provided by the "One China" policy and are concerned about U.S. actions that could disrupt it.

Conclusion

Evan Medeiros emphasizes that while the Trump administration may still face challenges with China over Taiwan, reaffirming the "One China" policy is essential for maintaining a stable and productive relationship. It allows the U.S. to focus on other critical areas such as trade, North Korea, and the South China Sea. The episode concludes with the hope that future discussions will explore more concrete strategies for addressing these issues.