2021-10-28-牛津经济研究院-APAC_China_s_slowdown_impacts_APAC_trade_in_varied_ways_5页_294kb

China's economic slowdown significantly impacts the APAC region via trade linkages. The exposure of each country differs based on their export sophistication.

• Australia and Indonesia: Sensitive to infrastructure and real estate investments due to their exports of commodities and raw materials. Retail sales influence Australia indirectly.
• Japan and Thailand: Their exports (capital goods, parts, and processed goods) respond to manufacturing investment, which is China's key driver. Japan's exports are less affected by construction and services.
• South Korean, Taiwanese, Malaysian, Vietnamese, and Philippine Economies: They dominate electronic components and are sensitive to supply chain complexities. Taiwan and South Korea's links are noted but complicated by regional trade patterns.
• Granger Causality Test: Reveals connectivity between China's indicators (exports, investment, retail sales) and the trade structures of several countries. For example, Australia, Philippines, and Indonesia's exports reacted to real estate investments, while Thailand and Malaysia were influenced by Chinese consumption.

Key findings emphasize that while China's slowdown affects all APAC economies negatively, the severity varies by trade structure. Australia and Indonesia are most vulnerable due to their reliance on infrastructure and real estate investments, whereas Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia benefit from China's manufacturing growth.