2017年-世界发展银行全球_The_Economics_of_Forced_Displacement___An_Introduction_28页_917kb

The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction Summary

Core Content

This paper introduces the economics of forced displacement, a topic that has gained unprecedented global attention due to events such as the Syrian refugee crisis and the European Union migration crisis. Forced displacement refers to the movement of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) caused by violence, and it has reached record levels in recent years.

Main Points

1. Global Scale and Impact

• Forced Displacement Numbers: As of the end of 2015, there were 65.3 million forcibly displaced people globally, including 21.3 million refugees and about 10 million stateless individuals.
• Geographic Distribution: Most refugees and IDPs are hosted in the Middle East and North Africa (39%), Africa (29%), and Asia and the Pacific (14%). Low and middle-income countries bear the brunt of this displacement, with wealthy OECD countries playing a minor role.
• Affected Countries: At least 150 countries host over 100 refugees each, and nearly all countries have some level of internal displacement.

2. The Economics Profession's Response

• Historical Context: Until recently, economics had little to say about forced displacement due to lack of data and a traditional focus on migration rather than forced migration.
• Shift in Focus: The Syrian and EU crises have shifted the attention of economists and development organizations toward the economics of forced displacement, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary approaches.

3. Theoretical and Methodological Considerations

• Neoclassical vs. Forced Displacement Economics: Traditional neoclassical models are inadequate for capturing the complexities of forced displacement due to the short-term, uncertain, and high-risk nature of decisions made by displaced individuals.
• Utility Theory: The concept of utility applies to displaced populations, but the metrics used to measure it differ. Non-monetary factors like security and survival are often more important than income or wealth.
• Time Horizon: Forced displacement decisions are short-term, contrasting with long-term life-cycle models used in migration studies.
• Information Constraints: In conflict environments, access to information is limited, leading to irrational decision-making and the need for models that incorporate subjective probabilities and behavioral economics.

4. Models and Approaches

• Expected Utility (EU) Model: This model is used to analyze decisions under uncertainty, where individuals weigh probabilities subjectively.
• Prospect Theory: Introduces the idea of weighting probabilities differently, which is crucial for understanding forced displacement behavior.
• Game Theory: Useful for modeling interactions and collective behavior in displacement scenarios, such as the prisoner's dilemma.
• Behavioral and Neuroeconomics: Offer insights into how individuals process information and make decisions in the short term, often valuing immediate rewards over long-term gains.

5. Data Challenges

• Scarcity and Quality: Data on displaced populations is often scarce, unreliable, or inaccessible, limiting empirical research.
• Humanitarian Focus: Humanitarian organizations, rather than economists, have traditionally collected data on refugees and IDPs, leading to a lack of detailed and accessible datasets.
• Improvement in Data Collection: While this is starting to change, the economics of forced displacement remains in its early stages due to these constraints.

6. Policy Implications

• Humanitarian-Development Nexus: There is a growing consensus that development organizations should collaborate with humanitarian agencies to address the long-term livelihoods of displaced populations.
• Empirical Applications: The paper highlights the potential for welfare economists to use existing data to inform policy decisions and improve the lives of refugees, IDPs, and their hosts.

Key Information

• Forced displacement is a major development challenge, affecting millions of people and requiring a new economic framework.
• Economic theory has not fully addressed the unique aspects of forced displacement, but recent advances in game theory, behavioral economics, and neuroeconomics offer promising tools.
• Data limitations remain a significant barrier, but efforts are underway to improve data collection and accessibility.
• Short-term decision-making is central to understanding forced displacement, with non-monetary factors playing a critical role.
• Policy relevance is high, as forced displacement impacts both the displaced and host communities, necessitating integrated economic and humanitarian approaches.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while the economics of forced displacement is still in its infancy, the field has the potential to evolve significantly. It calls for economists to take a more active role in studying and addressing this complex issue, leveraging new theoretical and methodological developments to better understand and support displaced populations.