> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Ke Holdings (BEKE US) Summary ## Core Content Ke Holdings (BEKE US) reported strong efficiency gains in 2Q26, with revenue declining 5.7% YoY to RMB24.5bn, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus and the firm's own forecast. Non-GAAP net profit surged 74.9% YoY to RMB3.2bn, significantly exceeding the consensus and estimates. Non-GAAP net profit margin reached 13.0%, a three-year high, reflecting improved operating productivity and efficiency. Despite a decline in store and agent counts (-0.4%/-3.1%), existing home transaction (EHT) volume grew by approximately 25% YoY, while connected (non-Lianjia) store volume increased by 30%. The company's EHT transaction-volume share in covered cities rose by 4.7ppt YoY, and NHT share increased by 2.8ppt to around 35%. This demonstrates that Beike's earnings power is increasingly driven by productivity per store and agent rather than network expansion. The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY26-28E, cutting them by 6-12% due to factors such as the migration of the rental business toward net-basis revenue recognition and a more conservative outlook for the recovery in new home transactions (NHT). However, the non-GAAP net profit forecast for FY26E was raised by 13%, attributed to stronger efficiency gains and improved operating productivity. ## Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: 2Q26E reported RMB24.5bn, down 5.7% YoY, slightly above consensus. - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Surged 74.9% YoY to RMB3.2bn, exceeding consensus by 32%. - **Non-GAAP Net Profit Margin**: Reached 13.0% in 2Q26, a three-year high. - **EHT Transaction Volume**: Grew by ~25% YoY, despite store and agent count declines. - **NHT GTV**: Remained flat YoY, compared to a -10% market decline. - **Contribution Margins**: EHT rose to 46.1%, NHT to 28.8%, both up from 39.9% and 24.4% in 2Q25. ## New Businesses - **Home Renovation & Furnishing (HR&F)**: Revenue declined 30% YoY in 2Q26, but contribution margin improved to 39.6% from 32.1%, showing improved unit economics. - **Home Rental Services (HRS)**: Revenue dropped 15% YoY, but contribution margin rose to 15.3% from 8.4%, indicating a shift toward lower-risk, lighter net-revenue models. - **Forecast**: HR&F revenue is expected to decline 27% YoY in 3Q26E, while HRS revenue is projected to fall 20% YoY. Both are expected to return to positive YoY growth in 1Q27E as the business normalizes. ## 3Q26E Outlook - **Revenue**: Forecasted at RMB20.5bn, down 11% YoY and 8% below consensus. - **Non-GAAP Operating Profit**: Expected to rise 83% YoY to RMB2.1bn, in line with consensus, indicating a non-GAAP OPM of 10.4% versus 5.1% in 3Q25. - **Core Businesses**: Continued improvements in store and agent productivity are expected to support core housing transaction businesses. ## Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: US\$22.40, down from US\$24.00. - **Non-GAAP P/E**: 20.4x for 2026E. - **SOTP Valuation**: Based on a total enterprise value of RMB164,088 million, translating to a valuation per ADS of US\$22.40. - **DCF Valuation**: NPV of FCF is expected to be RMB38,151 million for 2026E, with enterprise value at RMB112,572 million. ## Risk Factors - **Slower-than-expected property transaction recovery** - **Higher-than-expected receivable impairment from developers** - **Delayed profitability of new business lines** ## Analysts and Contact - **Analysts**: Saiyi HE, Ye TAO, Miao ZHANG, Wentao LU, Shuyin GUO - **Contact Information**: - Saiyi HE: (852) 3916 1739, hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk - Ye TAO: (852) 3850 5226, franktao@cmbi.com.hk - Miao ZHANG: (852) 3761 8910, zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk - Wentao LU: luwentao@cmbi.com.hk - Shuyin GUO: guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk ## Financial Summary | Financial Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |------------------|------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 77,777 | 93,457 | 94,580 | 84,340 | 88,423 | 92,353 | | Net Profit (RMB mn) | 5,883 | 4,065 | 2,994 | 6,634 | 7,490 | 8,497 | | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | 9,798 | 7,211 | 5,017 | 8,454 | 9,276 | 10,266 | | P/E (x) | 23.8 | 32.8 | 43.5 | 19.5 | 17.1 | 14.9 | ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months. - **NOT RATED**: Stock not rated by CMBIGM. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Important Disclosures - The information in this report is not suitable for all investors. - CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - Past performance does not guarantee future results. - The value of investments may fluctuate due to market conditions and other factors. - Investors are advised to consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.