2026-02-02-德意志银行-Fixed_Income_Blog_The_last_cyclical_hope_for_the_US_front-e...-119710867_13页_519kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Rates # Fixed Income Blog # The last cyclical hope for the US front-end The rates market has priced out one rate cut relative to peak dovishness three months ago but is still pricing a little more than two additional rate cuts overall. The recent data and events have left tomorrow's core CPI print as the last cyclical hope for the US front-end. Given market positioning, the US front-end could be vulnerable to an upside surprise to US CPI. From a structural perspective, both tails on Al continue to create downside risks to our view of higher equilibrium rates in the US. Fiscal dominance could also be supportive of the US front-end, but short of the Fed introducing YCC, it should be reflected in higher long-end rates. We maintain our mild bearish bias for US duration. As outlined in our outlook, there are both structural and cyclical reasons to be wary about being long the US front-end. From a structural perspective, most of the post-GFC decline in equilibrium interest rates is likely to reverse given the shift in the global supply/demand of savings. From a cyclical perspective, the ex-AI part of the US economy should recover as the policy mix transitions from tight monetary and fiscal policies in 2025 to a positive fiscal impulse, neutral if not already accommodative monetary policy, and easier regulations in 2026. The main cyclical support for lower rates stemmed from downside pressures on US rent inflation and plausible downside risks to oil prices. As discussed below, the data and events so far are, if anything, reinforcing our initial assessment. Tomorrow's core CPI print is the last cyclical hope for the US front-end. Strong growth. US GDP surprised to the upside in Q3. GDP trackers have been revised higher in recent weeks and are consistent with even stronger growth in Q4. Date 12 January 2026 Francis Yared Strategist +44-20-754-54017 Matthew Raskin Strategist +1-212-250-1741 Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist +1-212-250-9373 Andrew Fu Strategist +1-212-250-1743 Ioannis Sokos Strategist +44-20-754-75680 Markus Heider Macro Strategist +44-20-754-52167 Soniya Sadeesh Strategist +44-20-754-73091 Gabriele Cozzi Strategist +44-20-754-17714 Mingyue Xin Strategist +44-20-754-10002 Figure 1: GDP trackers for Q4 have been revised up Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Figure 2: Economists' expectations for 2026 GDP growth has been trending upward Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Labour market stabilising around the breakeven rate. The volatility of non-farm payrolls is notorious. Our analysis suggests that jobless claims have historically provided a slightly more accurate signal in real-time (link). Jobless claims are currently some distance from triggering a Sahm rule. Overall, the labour market appears to be stabilising around the breakeven rate, with some green shoots indicating a potential turnaround. Figure 3: Jobless claims are currently some distance from triggering a Sahm rule. Threshold (%)* Equivalent level (k) No. of trades Hit ratio (%) Avg. excess return Sharpe ratio 0.00 211.8 7.45 227.5 41 73 1.65 0.36 14.1** 241.6 27 56 2.24 0.36 16.26*** 246.2 19 68 2.88 0.43 22.78 260.0 11 82 2.83 0.57 * % of 4-week average initial claims above past 12-month minimum ** DB Econ threshold of economic recessions *** Optimal trading threshold Threshold (%)* Equivalent level (k) No. of trades Hit ratio (%) Avg. excess return Sharpe ratio 4.59 1914 Current Level 4.70 1916 75 56 1.49 0.29 9.10 1997 43 60 1.84 0.35 11.50** 2040 28 68 3.62 0.62 15.61 2116 25 84 2.83 0.76 * % of current continuing claims above past 12-month minimum ** DB Econ threshold of economic recessions & optimal trading threshold Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Department of Labor Figure 4: Payrolls appear to be stabilising around the breakeven rate Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Department of Labor, ADP Fiscal impulse shifting from headwind to tailwinds, with upside risks. The (lower than advertised) tariff revenues resulted in fiscal tightening in 2025. These revenues are already expected to be spent (and some more) via the BBB in 2026. In addition, the administration has floated proposals to spend these tariff revenues multiple more times (e.g., checks to consumers, defence spending). Crucially, the focus on affordability ahead of the midterm elections is likely to increase the pressure to offer more fiscal support (e.g., an extension of healthcare subsidies) or to be more considerate in reinstating tariffs if they are struck down by the Supreme Court. Figure 5: Tariffs running lower than advertised Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Finance LP, The Budget Lab at Yale. Note: November and December projections based on US Treasury duties data (dotted line). Tariff rate tracker represented by the average of the Budget Lab tracker and Bloomberg Economics Figure 6: Fiscal impulse shifting from headwind to tailwinds, with upside risks. Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Lending standards consistent with monetary policy close to neutral. For the past few quarters, lending standards have been consistent with underlying growth around potential. In practice, growth has been stronger than implied by lending standards, which could be attributed to the Al-driven capex boom. However, one can still interpret current lending standards as indicating that monetary policy is close to neutral. Figure 7: For the past few quarters, lending standards have been consistent with underlying growth around potential. Source: Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve, BEA, CBO Figure 8: Financial conditions consistent with easy monetary policy. Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Financial conditions consistent with easy monetary policy. Financial condition indices are as volatile as their constituents. This limits their usefulness as a leading indicator of monetary policy. Nonetheless, as a cross-check of lending standards, current FCIs are, if anything, consistent with monetary policy being, if anything, easy. Regulatory easing raises the bar for Fed cuts. The US Administration is likely to further ease banking sector regulation with proposals which are likely to include, amongst others, lower leverage capital constraints (eSLR) and a more benign Basel III endgame. Easier regulation should increase credit velocity and therefore raise the bar for further Fed easing accordingly. Similarly, the proposal to cap credit card interest rates at $10\%$ can also be interpreted as a short-term credit easing, which at the margin should reduce the need for the Fed to ease policy rates. Reduced downside risks to oil prices. We highlighted a supply shock to oil prices as one of the key risks to our bearish duration bias. As it were, oil prices have proved to be relatively resilient to recent geopolitical events. More importantly, one could argue that the current environment is increasing the incentives for China to build its strategic oil reserves. Our commodity strategist highlighted a larger China inventory build as a stabilising factor relative to his otherwise more bearish outlook for oil. Upside risks to core goods inflation. The market has heavily discounted the impact of tariffs on US inflation. However, leading indicators are consistent with some passthrough in the months ahead. Short of a full reversal of tariffs, this creates upside risks to core goods inflation Downside risks for rents. As pointed out in previous publications, the recent soft trend in alternative rent indicators suggests potential downside risks for rental inflation, below pre-pandemic averages and in line with the latest November figures. Figure 9: Leading indicators are consistent with some tariffs indirect effects passthrough in the months ahead Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Figure 10: The recent soft trend in alternative rent indicators suggest potential downside risks for rental inflation Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics, BLS, Zillow, Apartment List, Moody's CRE. Note: data are shown in Z-scores Both tails on Al remain a structural downside risk to our view of higher equilibrium rates. If Al is a bubble that bursts, the Fed is likely to be at least temporarily more dovish. Alternatively, Al could result in a more structural increase in inequalities between capital and labour, which would also result in lower equilibrium rates. Bottom line. From a pure cyclical perspective, tomorrow's US CPI (and further weakness in OER) is the last hope to justify a more dovish Fed than currently priced in. Given likely market positioning (stepeners and/or long the front-end), the front-end could be vulnerable to an upside surprise to US CPI, with DB forecasts implying upside risks to Bloomberg consensus. From a structural perspective, both tails on Al also create downside risks to our view of higher equilibrium rates in the US. Finally, fiscal dominance could be supportive of the US front-end, but short of the Fed introducing YCC, it should be reflected in higher long-end rates. Moreover, its political benefits are debatable when affordability, rather than the pricing or availability of credit, is the main electoral issue. We maintain our mild bearish bias for US duration. # Appendix 1 # Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. 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