2025-06-11-Jefferies-约翰斯·林恩（JLG）_给我看看钱_12页_661kb

Johns Lyng (JLG AU) Equity Research Summary

Transaction Update

• PEP Acquisition Offer: Received a conditional, non-binding RATING BUY indicative proposal to acquire 100% shares. Exclusivity for due diligence until July 11, 2025 (no bid price disclosed).
• Equity Research Analysts: Tom Chapman (Lead) & John Campbell highlight valuation upside ranging from A$3.20 (>7% upside) to A$4.17 (>39% upside), driven by Federal Budget support, wet weather CAT events, and potential US business growth.

Valuation Scenarios (All include 20% control premium)

### Blend DCF + EV/EBIT Multiples:
- **Scenario 1**: Blended DCF `$4.40 + 22% Off comps` → `$3.16` → +`$3.79` (+27% upside)
- **Scenario 2**: Past JLG acquisition multiples yield `$3.30` → +`$3.96` (+32% upside)
- **Scenario 3**: Including `2H25 CAT Upside` → `$4.17` (+39% upside)

• Consensus Valuation: A$3.97/share (+33% upside).

Catalysts & Risks

• **Up-side': Positive Budget impact, successful tendering, new insurance panels & US growth.
• **Down-side': US demand drops, US insurance price risks, negative disasters, loss of key personnel.

Key Data

• Market Cap: AUD 831.9M
• Current Share Price: AUD 2.99 (+$4.00 upside)
• EPS: 2024A (0.19), 2025E (0.16) to 0.22 (-13% YoY)
• EV/EBITDA: 6.3-7.9x

Analyst Certification

• Chapman, Campbell, Sim & Xu certified the views reflect their personal opinions and are not tied to compensation.