2014年-ECB欧洲央行_New_international_standards_in_statistics_-_enhancements_to__methodology_and_data_availability_15页_495kb

Summary of New International Standards in Statistics - Enhancements to Methodology and Data Availability

Core Content

The European Union (EU) is implementing new international statistical standards in the second half of 2014, which are aligned with the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008 and the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). These standards are designed to better reflect structural changes in the global economy, including the effects of financial innovation, globalisation, and the increasing complexity of financial and economic structures. The European Central Bank (ECB) has played a key role in revising these standards and adapting them to the European context, particularly through the ESA 2010, which is the EU counterpart of the SNA 2008.

The implementation of the new standards will affect a range of economic indicators, such as GDP, trade, the net international investment position (NIIP), government debt and deficit, and the saving ratio of households. These changes aim to improve the consistency, accuracy, and comparability of economic data across the EU and euro area, which is essential for monetary policy and financial supervision.

Main Methodological Changes and Their Impact

1. GDP and Investment

• Change in level: Increase
• Explanation:
  • R&D expenditures are now capitalised as investment rather than being treated as intermediate consumption.
  • Many Member States will perform benchmark revisions, which are expected to increase GDP and GNI.
• Impact on GDP growth: Minimal
• Impact on other indicators: Affects debt and deficit ratios.

2. Net Trade in Goods and Services

• Change in level: Increase or decrease
• Explanation:
  • Goods sent abroad for processing are no longer considered exports or imports, but are recorded as a manufacturing service.
  • Merchanting is reclassified from services to exports of goods, with the trade margin recorded as a net export of goods.
  • Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) are now classified as financial services.

3. Net International Investment Position (NIIP)

• Change in level: Increase or decrease
• Explanation:
  • Entities registered in a country are considered residents, even if they have little physical presence.
  • Special drawing rights (SDRs) allocated by the IMF are treated as liabilities of the central bank or general government, increasing external debt and decreasing NIIP.
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships are extended to cover complex corporate structures, with reclassifications from other investment types.

4. External Debt

• Change in level: Increase
• Explanation:
  • SDR allocations and the reclassification of entities into the government sector increase external debt.

5. Government Debt

• Change in level: Increase
• Explanation:
  • Stricter classification criteria move more entities into the government sector, increasing government debt.

6. Government Deficit

• Change in level: Increase or decrease
• Explanation:
  • The inclusion of more government entities increases the deficit.
  • Settlements under swaps are no longer treated as interest, which may increase or decrease the deficit.
  • Lump-sum payments for pension liabilities no longer reduce the deficit if they are less than the transferred liabilities.

7. Household Saving and Pension Claims

• Change in level: Increase
• Explanation:
  • Employer contributions to pension schemes increase household income and saving, as these are recorded as part of employee compensation.

8. Non-Financial Corporation Debt

• Change in level: Decrease
• Explanation:
  • Holding companies not engaged in management are reclassified to the financial corporations sector, reducing non-financial corporation debt.

9. Financial Sector Liabilities

• Change in level: Increase
• Explanation:
  • Some non-financial corporations are reclassified to the government sector.
  • SPEs are now considered residents in their country of registration, increasing financial sector liabilities.

Improvements in Data Availability

• The timeliness of publishing quarterly GDP data will improve, with releases occurring two months after the reference quarter (from 70 days to two months).
• The GDP flash estimate remains at 45 days after the reference quarter.
• The new standards enhance the harmonisation of data across the EU, ensuring consistency in the measurement of key economic variables.
• The implementation includes a transmission programme for national accounts data, with specified deadlines for Member States to report.

Conclusion

The new international statistical standards represent a significant modernisation of economic measurement, driven by global economic changes and financial innovation. The implementation of these standards in the EU, particularly through the ESA 2010, will lead to more accurate and comparable data, which is crucial for monetary policy and financial supervision. The changes will have varying impacts on different economic indicators, with some variables increasing and others decreasing in level. The ECB and other international organisations are working closely to ensure a coordinated and timely implementation of these standards across the euro area.