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2026 US Venture Capital Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an outlook on the US venture capital (VC) market for 2026, authored by Kyle Stanford, Emily Zheng, Kaidi Gao, and Susan Hu from PitchBook, a Morningstar company. The analysis covers key trends in deal activity, liquidity, fundraising, and the role of AI and secondary markets in shaping the future of VC.

Main Views

Early-Stage Deal Activity

• Surge in Activity: Early-stage deal activity is expected to see a surge in 2026, driven by AI's rapid development and growing demand from global corporations.
• Performance: First-time financing activity in 2025 has already reached near-record levels, with only 200 deals behind the 2021 high. Early-stage deal counts have increased in each of the past three quarters.
• Investor Behavior: Multistage investors are increasingly participating in seed and Series A rounds, indicating a shift in strategy. The median seed deal size has reached nearly $4 million, with investors more willing to pay up for early-stage opportunities.
• Geographic Concentration: The Bay Area and New York continue to dominate early-stage activity, with AI startups particularly concentrated in these regions. The median distance between seed lead investors and target companies has declined over the past three years.
• Risks: Emerging managers face challenges in raising new funds due to limited liquidity and reduced investor appetite. This could stifle innovation outside major capital hubs.

Later-Stage Deal Activity

• Resilience and Growth: Later-stage deal activity has remained strong in 2025, with annualized deal value reaching $107.6 billion across 4,459 deals—on pace for the highest total in a decade.
• AI Dominance: AI has become a significant driver of later-stage deal activity, accounting for over 28% of late-stage deal count in 2025. AI startups are raising higher valuations and receiving more capital.
• Valuation Trends: The median pre-money valuation for Series C and D+ deals has increased significantly, with Series C reaching a 10-year high of $307 million. AI startups continue to outperform non-AI companies in terms of deal value.
• Exit Environment: While later-stage deal activity is robust, the exit environment remains uncertain. A potential downturn in public market valuations could impact private AI startups, and a weak exit market could reduce investor appetite for later-stage investments.

Liquidity Recovery

• Gradual Improvement: Liquidity is expected to return in 2026, though recovery will be uneven. The IPO window is opening slightly but remains selective.
• IPO Trends: The number of IPOs in 2026 is projected to be 68, slightly above the decade average excluding 2021. However, most IPOs are expected to trade at lower valuations than their private market peaks.
• Secondaries as a Bridge: Venture secondaries are set to play a larger role in 2026, offering a way to realize returns without relying on IPOs or M&A. Secondary SPVs have seen significant growth, with a 682% increase in the number of SPVs and a 1,340% surge in capital raised.
• Market Dynamics: The secondary market is expected to remain dominated by well-capitalized investors, with retail platforms like EquityZen and Forge Global competing for a limited pool of tradable assets.

Fundraising Trends

• Bottoming Out: Fundraising has bottomed out, with venture funds closing only $45 billion in new commitments in 2025, the lowest since 2017.
• LP Sentiment: LP sentiment remains poor, with net cash flows to LPs being negative by $169 billion since 2022. This has led to a concentration of capital among established firms.
• Future Outlook: A gradual rebound in fundraising is anticipated as distributions and LP sentiment improve, but this is contingent on macroeconomic stability and continued liquidity in exit markets.

Key Information

• AI's Impact: AI has become a dominant force in the VC market, capturing 65% of total VC deal value through Q3 2025. It is increasingly integrated across various industries, including biotech, enterprise productivity, and climate tech.
• Unicorn Growth: The number of active unicorns in the US grew to 830 in 2025, with a total post-money valuation of $3.9 trillion. However, many unicorns have slowed growth, increasing liquidity constraints.
• Geographic Consolidation: The Bay Area and New York continue to lead in early-stage activity, with a large share of AI startups. This trend is expected to continue in 2026.
• Regulatory Environment: The Trump administration has reduced the likelihood of regulatory surprises, creating a more stable environment compared to 2025.
• Exit Market Outlook: While the exit market is expected to improve, it will not see a widespread IPO wave. VC-backed exits showed signs of recovery but fell short of expectations, with few IPOs matching private valuations.
• Secondary Market Growth: Secondary SPVs have become a growing access channel, with a 682% increase in numbers and 1,340% surge in capital raised. However, the secondary market remains concentrated among elite companies.

Risks

• Liquidity Challenges: Despite a rebound in 2025, the VC market still faces liquidity issues, with exit values projected to fall below $300 billion.
• AI Valuation Concerns: The AI market may be overvalued, and a contraction in public AI valuations could lead to markdowns in private AI startups, reducing investor confidence.
• Exit Uncertainty: A weak exit environment in 2026 could dampen investor appetite for later-stage startups and slow large investments.
• Secondary Market Complexity: The rise of SPVs has introduced new risks, particularly for less sophisticated investors, as seen in the collapse of Lingto due to misrepresented ownership in SPVs.
• Emerging Manager Struggles: Emerging managers face difficulty in raising new funds, with only 33% of first-time managers in 2021 and 12% in 2022 raising follow-on vehicles, indicating a shift in investor focus toward track record and distributions.

Conclusion

The 2026 US VC market is expected to see a cautious but optimistic outlook, with early-stage deal activity surging due to AI's influence and the secondary market playing a more significant role. However, liquidity recovery will be uneven, and later-stage deal activity may face challenges if public market valuations decline or exit opportunities remain limited. The market is likely to continue its slow recovery, with AI remaining a key driver and the Bay Area and New York maintaining their dominance in early-stage investments.