2022-03-10-牛津经济研究院-South_Africa_What_the_July_unrest_tells_us_about_the_2024_Elections_9页_472kb

July 2021 Unrest Implications for South African 2024 Elections

• 2021 Significance: 2021 was marked by the largest civil unrest since Apartheid's end and the ANC's first sub-50% national vote share (45.6%), indicating a turning point.

• Unrest Localization: Violent protests peaked in July 2021, centered in Gauteng (112 incidents) and KwaZulu-Natal (284 incidents), following Jacob Zuma's sentencing. The violence remained largely localized.

• Impact on ANC: The protests significantly eroded ANC support, particularly in areas directly affected. ANC vote share declined by 13.9 ppts in wards experiencing direct protests, contrasting with a modest 5.6 ppt decline in unaffected areas.

• Regional Declines: Hard-hit provinces saw substantial ANC losses:

  • KwaZulu-Natal (ANC vote: 41.4%).
  • Gauteng (ANC vote: 36.1%).

• Opposition Gains: Rival parties capitalized on ANC weakness:

  • In KZN, IFP and EFF gained significantly.
  • In Gauteng, VF+, ActionSA, and right-wing VF gained support.

• 2024 Election Projection: The prolonged trend of electoral erosion suggests the ANC could face a similar or worse decline in the 2024 General Election:

  • Baseline scenario: Decline of ~4.1 ppts (ANC: 53.4%).
  • Moderate scenario: Decline of ~5.6 ppts (ANC: 51.9%).
  • Worst-case scenario: Decline of ~8.3 ppts, potentially dipping below 50% (ANC: 49.2%).

• Potential Outcomes:

  • ANC might need to form its first national coalition government.
  • Populist policies and social spending increases may be adopted if the election is seen as critical.
  • Internal ANC dynamics and leadership selection could be influenced by performance in KwaZulu-Natal.
  • Unrest memory is expected to diminish for the 2024 election, but overall trends remain concerning.