20260210-国泰君安期货-Morning_Insight_February_10_2026_9页_744kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** February 10, 2026 # Morning Insight: February 10, 2026 Linlin Gao Certification: Z0002332 gaolinlin@ghtt.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification: F03133175 wuyuchen@ghtt.com # Main Body # Commodity Market Insight: LNG: Supply has rapidly returned to a loose balance. With the U.S. cold weather over, gas output has recovered to around 550 MMcm/d, back to normal levels. LNG loadings from Australia, Qatar, Russia, Nigeria, and other exporters have increased month on month, leaving overall supply ample. On the demand side, Europe and the U.S. are still in the peak winter season, but temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal in late February; China's industrial demand typically weakens during the Spring Festival, while Japan and South Korea, facing high gas prices, are marginally considering coal-to-gas substitution. As a result, upside for LNG prices appears limited, with pricing gradually reverting to a microstructure dominated by high capacity additions and ample supply. If short-term geopolitical risks temporarily add a premium, we would recommend selling into strength. European gas storage stands at around $40 \%$ , 12 - 14 percentage points lower than in previous years, and the inventory gap between Europe and the U.S. remains wide. In addition, attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. Golden Pass LNG project coming online in March. In the near term, TTF prices are expected to remain stronger than Henry Hub (HH). Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium rebounded yesterday in tandem with gold and silver as valuations recovered, with the main SHFE platinum contract posting a single-day gain of over $10 \%$ and the main palladium contract rising $7.59 \%$ . High- frequency data now point to some divergence between the two: the forward structure of London platinum continues to ease marginally, while palladium's forward discount remains around $4\%$ across all tenors. In the New York market, although calendar spreads are still in contango, with annualized premiums of $2.6\%$ for platinum and $5.9\%$ for palladium at Monday's close, inventories have begun to flow out, alongside continued ETF outflows. These features suggest that platinum and palladium are facing sustained pressure after quickly returning to previously elevated price ranges, and if U.S. inventories continue to move toward non-U.S. markets, expectations of a liquidity squeeze in the London platinum market could be undermined. From a technical perspective, platinum has quickly repaired after briefly breaking below the lower bound of its upward trendline, with RMB platinum still supported in the 450-500 yuan/gram range, while palladium is holding around 380-400 yuan/gram. Overall, we are more inclined to believe that platinum and palladium will track gold and silver in the near term and lack a solid basis for another aggressive push toward prior highs. Notably, palladium has shown relatively stronger resilience during this pullback, partly because its earlier rally lagged and thus it was less affected during the deleveraging phase of rising volatility, and partly because palladium continues to trade with a high contango structure in the U.S. market, suggesting that pricing still reflects expectations of potential U.S. tariffs. Given the extreme volatility across the precious metals complex, investors should remain mindful of associated risks. Ferrous metals: weakening support from raw materials has driven the complex’s center of gravity lower. From a medium-term perspective, upside momentum is limited as ferrous commodities have become less sensitive to macro stimulus, with any meaningful breakout relying more on cost-side drivers such as policy-driven coal supply tightening or sudden supply disruptions in iron ore, while steel demand alone is insufficient to generate a smooth positive feedback loop. Downside risks stem from the end of winter stockpiling of raw materials and a phase of weakening demand expectations, as well as the potential release of liquidity from high iron ore inventories following progress in negotiations, with spot prices leading futures lower. In the short term, bullish factors previously came from low-base steel mill restarts combined with rigid demand for winter replenishment of raw materials, while bearish pressure were driven by high hot-rolled coil inventories and elevated iron ore stocks, which constrained expectations for positive feedback and heightened concerns over cost collapse. As operations progressed, however, weak steel mill profitability limited the extent of restarts, and with winter replenishment nearing its end, expectations were priced in ahead of time, leading to synchronized mild declines in iron ore, coking coal, and steel prices. It is worth noting that precisely because steel mill restarts have been relatively slow, hot-rolled coil inventories have been drawn down more smoothly, which in fact helps lay the groundwork for a post-holiday market in which improving demand on a month-on-month basis could support a renewed positive feedback dynamic. Chart 1: Market Snapshot Market Snapshot CSI 300 Index Futures 4639.8 1.39% SSE 50 Index Futures 3037.0 1.30% CSI 500 Index Futures 8140.6 1.62% CSI 1000 Index Futures 8026.8 2.15% 30Y T-bond Futures 112.6 0.14% 10Y T-bond Futures 108.4 0.06% 5Y T-bond Futures 105.9 0.08% 2Y T-bond Futures 102.5 0.04% Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # Open Interest Chart 2: Open Interest of IF Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 3: Open Interest of IH Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4: Open Interest of IC Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 5: Open Interest of IM Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China on Monday announced that it has authorized the Bank of China's (BOC's) London branch as a renminbi (RMB) clearing bank in Britain. The central bank announced the decision in a memorandum of understanding with the Bank of England. Drawing on a century of expertise in cross-border finance and its well-established RMB clearing network, the BOC continues to strengthen supportive infrastructure for the internationalization of the renminbi, according to the BOC. It said that in the future, further efforts will be made to promote the development of London's offshore RMB market while pursuing continued innovation in areas such as trading, investment, financing, and clearing and settlement. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges on Monday announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing rules to support high-quality listed companies. The move aims to better support the innovative development of high-quality listed companies, accommodate the refinancing needs of sci-tech enterprises, enhance the flexibility and convenience of refinancing, and refine oversight throughout the process. For well-performing companies with standardized governance and information disclosure, as well as strong market recognition, the exchanges will streamline the review process to improve refinancing efficiency. To address the needs of sci-tech firms, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges have proposed that they will solicit public opinion on the criteria to identify main-board listed companies as "light assets and high R&D investment." Companies listed on the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing exchanges that are trading below their issue prices may raise funds through such means as private placement and convertible bond issuance, provided that funds raised are used for core business operations. (Source: Xinhua) 3. Chinese stocks opened higher on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index up 0.93 percent to open at 4,103.54 points. (Source: Xinhua) Chart 6: Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar 2026/2/11 Monthly Report on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly Report on Producer Price Index in the Industrial Sector 2026/2/13 Monthly Report on Sales Price Indexes of Commercial Residential Buildings 2026/2/28 Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting business in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company's professional investors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legal jurisdiction. 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