20260226-招银国际-兖煤澳大利亚-03668.HK-2025_profit_below_consensus_resilient_coal_price_to_support_2026_earnings_8页_959kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) # 2025 profit below consensus; resilient coal price to support 2026 earnings Yancoal's (YAL) net profit in 2025 came in at A$440mn (-64% YoY), which is 15% below Bloomberg consensus but 20% above our estimates due to the high earnings sensitivity to the unit cash margin. YAL declared a final dividend of A$0.122/shr. This, together with the interim dividend of A$0.062/shr, implies a pay-out ratio of 55% which is in line with YAL's dividend policy. Looking into 2026, we forecast 3% attributable sales volume growth along with ~1% increase in unit cash cost due to the sticky raw material cost inflation. Meanwhile, we revise up our coal price assumptions by 8%/7% in 2026E/27E as we see signs of coal price stabilisation YTD. Our earnings forecast for 2026E/27E is therefore revised up by 26%/10%. We maintain our BUY rating on YAL due to (1) resilient seaborne coal price underpinned by the production cut policy in Indonesia (quota to reduce by 24% to 600mt), (2) healthy balance sheet (A$2bn net cash by end-2025) and consistent dividend policy (50% of after-tax profit or free cash flow, whichever is higher). Our NPV-based TP is revised up to HK$38 (from HK$31), as we revise up our long-term thermal coal price assumption (to A$140/t) to reflect potentially higher power demand. Key highlights in 2025 results. Revenue dropped $13\%$ YoY to A\$5.83bn, as the $1\%$ YoY attributable coal sales volume growth (to 38.1mt) was more than offset by the $17\%$ YoY decline in blended coal ASP (to A\$146/t). Other income dropped $53\%$ YoY to A\$74mn due to the lack of FX gains (A\$149mn in 2024). Net profit declined $64\%$ to A\$440mn due to operating deleveraging. In 2H25, revenue/net profit dropped $12\% / 65\%$ YoY to A\$3.2bn/A\$277mn. Unit cash cost dropped only $1 \%$ YoY in 2025. YAL achieved unit cash cost (excluding royalties) of A $\$ 92/$ t in 2025. The reduction is less than our expectation given the high utilisation rates of mines. Given the recent increase in raw material cost, we expect an elevated unit cash cost in 2026E- 27E. - Healthy cash position. As at end-2025, Yancoal had gross cash of A$2bn, equivalent to ~25% of the current market cap. ■ 2026 guidance introduced by YAL: (1) attributable saleable production: 36.5-40.5mn tonnes (-5% to +5% YoY); (2) operating cash cost (excluding royalties): A$90-98/t (-2% to +7% YoY); (3) capex: A$750-900mn (up 0%-20% YoY). Key risks: (1) further decline in coal price; (2) elevated input cost; (3) extreme weather that affects production and delivery.. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E Revenue (AUD mn) 6,860 5,949 6,144 6,383 6,589 YoY growth (%) (11.8) (13.3) 3.3 3.9 3.2 Net profit (AUD mn) 1,215.9 439.9 577.1 633.9 664.4 EPS (Reported) (AUD) 0.92 0.33 0.44 0.48 0.50 YoY growth (%) (33.1) (63.8) 31.2 9.8 4.8 Consensus EPS (AUD) na na 0.46 0.49 na P/E (x) 6.6 18.4 14.0 12.7 12.2 P/B (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Yield (%) 8.5 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.5 ROE (%) 13.7 4.8 6.3 6.7 6.8 Net gearing (%) (25.2) (22.6) (22.3) (26.3) (25.9) Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates # BUY (Maintain) Target Price HK$38.00 (Previous TP HK$31.00) Up/Downside 12.6% Current Price HK$33.76 # China Energy # Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 44,578.0 Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 56.4 52w High/Low (HK$) 34.98/21.85 Total Issued Shares (mn) 1320.4 Source:FactSet Shareholding Structure Yankuang Energy 62.3% China Cinda AM 7.7% Source: HKEx Share Performance 12-mth Price Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth 11.9% 11.9% 3-mth 25.0% 21.0% 6-mth 20.6% 16.4% Source:FactSet Source:FactSet # Auditor: ShineWing Australia # Related Reports 1. Yancoal Australia - Production volume in 3Q25 affected by unfavourable weather - 21 Oct 2025 (link) 2. Yancoal Australia - Weak earnings but largely anticipated; Expect an improvement trend of coal price - 20 Aug 2025 (link) 3. Yancoal Australia - Strong production volume growth in 2Q25 but sales affected by logistical issue - 18 Jul 2025 (link) Figure 1: YAL's 2025 results YE Dec 31(A$ mn) 1H24 1H25 Change (YoY) 2H24 2H25 Change (YoY) Revenue Sales of coal 3,030 2,558 -15.6% 3,760 3,242 -13.8% Sea freight 44 39 -11.4% 30 40 33.3% Fair value of losses recycled from hedge reserve 0 0 n/a -125 -51 n/a Sub-total 3,074 2,597 -15.5% 3,665 3,231 -11.8% Other revenue Interest income 39 52 33.3% 50 38 -24.0% Mining services fees 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a Royalty revenue & others 25 26 4.0% 7 5 -28.6% Total (other revenue) 64 78 21.9% 57 43 -24.6% Total revenue 3,138 2,675 -14.8% 3,722 3,274 -12.0% Other income/(loss) 53 31 -41.5% 106 43 -59.4% Change in inventories of finished goods & work in progress -10 128 n/a -34 -106 211.8% Raw materials and consumables used -585 -604 3.2% -576 -605 5.0% Employee benefits -401 -409 2.0% -395 -412 4.3% Transportation -412 -402 -2.4% -414 -477 15.2% Contractual services and plant hire -295 -292 -1.0% -312 -273 -12.5% Government royalties -261 -262 0.4% -378 -312 -17.5% Coal purchase -102 -63 -38.2% -93 -116 24.7% Other operating expenses -138 -160 15.9% -164 -229 39.6% Depreciation and amortisation -400 -383 -4.3% -350 -395 12.9% EBIT 587 259 -55.9% 1,112 392 -64.8% Finance expenses -20 -21 5.0% -19 -21 10.5% Share of profit of JV and associates 4 1 -75.0% 25 13 -48.0% Pretax profit 571 239 -58.1% 1,118 384 -65.7% Income tax -151 -76 -49.7% -322 -107 -66.8% After tax profit 420 163 -61.2% 796 277 -65.2% Ml 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a Net profit 420 163 -61.2% 796 277 -65.2% D&A 400 383 -4.3% 350 395 12.9% EBITDA 987 642 -35.0% 1,462 787 -46.2% Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 2: YAL's quarterly statistics 1Q24 1Q25 Chg (YoY) 2Q24 2Q25 Chg (YoY) 3Q24 3Q25 Chg (YoY) 4Q24 4Q25 Chg (YoY) Marketable coal production (mn tonnes)(100 % equity basis) Mines HVO 2.8 3.5 25% 2.0 3.1 55% 3.2 3.5 9% 3.7 4.0 8% Mount Thorley Warkworth (MTW) 2.2 2.8 27% 2.5 2.7 8% 3.3 2.7 -18% 3.2 3.6 13% Moolarben 5.0 4.8 -4% 4.5 5.0 11% 5.3 4.7 -11% 4.2 4.6 10% Stratford Duralie 0.1 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a Yarrabee 0.4 0.6 50% 0.4 0.7 75% 0.7 0.7 0% 0.7 0.7 0% Midlemount 0.5 0.7 40% 0.6 0.7 17% 0.5 0.6 20% 0.7 0.7 0% Ashton 0.3 0.2 -33% 0.3 0.2 -33% 0.2 0.0 -100% 0.5 0.1 -80% Total 11.3 12.6 12% 10.3 12.4 20% 13.2 12.2 -8% 13.0 13.7 5% Marketable coal production (mn tonnes)(Attributable basis) Total 8.8 9.5 8% 8.2 9.4 15% 10.2 9.3 -9% 9.7 10.7 11% Attributable sales volume (mn tonnes) Thermal 7.3 7.0 -4% 7.5 6.8 -9% 9.0 9.0 0% 8.6 9.2 7% Metallurgical 1.0 1.4 40% 1.0 1.3 30% 1.4 1.6 14% 1.8 1.7 -6% Total 8.3 8.4 1% 8.6 8.1 -6% 10.4 10.7 3% 10.4 10.8 4% ASP (A$/tonne) Thermal 159 145 -9% 163 130 -20% 157 130 -17% 163 138 -15% Metallurgical 334 218 -35% 318 197 -38% 259 195 -25% 242 203 -16% Blended 180 157 -13% 181 142 -22% 170 140 -18% 176 148 -16% Revenue (A$ mn) Thermal 1,161 1,015 -13% 1,223 884 -28% 1,413 1,170 -17% 1,402 1,270 -9% Metallurgical 334 305 -9% 318 256 -19% 363 312 -14% 436 345 -21% Total ex-mine coal revenue 1,495 1,320 -12% 1,541 1,140 -26% 1,776 1,482 -17% 1,837 1,615 -12% Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 3: Changes in key operating assumptions Old New Change 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E Marketable coal production (mn tonnes) (100 % equity basis) Consolidated mines HVO 13.5 14.0 - 13.5 14.0 16.0 0.0% 0.0% - Mount Thorley Warkworth (MTW) 12.8 13.5 - 12.0 12.5 12.8 -6.3% -7.4% - Moolarben 19.5 20.0 - 19.5 20.0 20.5 0.0% 0.0% - Stratford Duralie 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a - Yarrabee 2.0 2.0 - 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0% 0.0% - Middlemount 3.0 3.0 - 2.6 2.7 2.9 -13.3% -10.0% - Ashton 1.3 1.3 - 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0% 0.0% - Total 52.1 53.8 - 50.9 52.5 54.5 -2.3% -2.4% - Sales volume (mn tonnes) Thermal 34.0 35.2 - 32.3 33.3 33.9 -5.1% -5.5% - Metallurgical 6.0 6.2 - 7.1 7.3 7.4 18.0% 17.6% - Total 40.1 41.4 - 39.4 40.6 41.3 -1.7% -2.0% - ASP (A$/t) Thermal 135 135 - 140 142 144 3.7% 5.2% - Metallurgical 165 180 - 195 196 198 18.2% 8.9% - Blended 140 142 - 150 152 154 7.5% 7.0% - Cash operating cost breakdown (A$/tonne) Unit cash operating cost -104 -104 - -112 -113 -114 8.0% 9.2% - Unit cash operating cost (excluding government royalties) -91 -90 - -97 -98 -99 7.2% 8.6% - Unit cash margin (excluding government royalties) 49 51 - 53 54 55 7.9% 4.3% - Net profit (A$ mn) 458 575 - 577 634 664 25.9% 10.2% - Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Note: Our unit cost figures are slightly different from the company's due to the difference in transportation cost calculation. Figure 4: Seaborne semi-soft coking coal (SSCC) price Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 5: Seaborne pulverised coal injection (PCI) price Source: Wind, CMBIGM Figure 6: GC Newc (6000/kCal) pricing Source: Company data, Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL, CMBIGM Figure 7: YAL's thermal ASP vs benchmarks Source: Company data, Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL, CMBIGM Figure 8: YAL's metallurgical ASP vs benchmarks Source: Company data, Argus/McCloskey, GlobalCOAL, CMBIGM Figure 9: Assumptions on YAL's ASP Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Figure 10: YAL's unit cash cost breakdown Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Note: Excluding government royalties # Valuation We value YAL by net present value (NPV), calculated by the future cash flow of all the reserves based on their effective mine life. We maintain our BUY rating with new TP of HK$38 (previously HK$31). # Changes in key assumptions include: Long-term thermal and metallurgical coal price (starting from 2029E) of A$140/t (previously: A$130/t) and A$200/t (unchanged) respectively. Our higher LT thermal coal price is to reflect the higher-than-expected power consumption. Long-term unit cash cost inflation of $1\%$ p.a. (unchanged). WACC of $7.2\%$ (previously: $6.7\%$ ): Risk-free rate of $4.5\%$ (previously: $4\%$ ), based on 10-year Australian government bond yield; risk premium of $6\%$ , $0.5x$ beta, and $10\%$ debt/capital ratio (unchanged). AUD/HKD rate of HK$5.5, up from HK$5.0 due to the recent currency appreciation. Figure 11: TP sensitivity to coal price WACC LT coal thermal coal price (A$/t) 100 120 140 160 180 5.2% 19 31 44 56 69 6.2% 18 29 41 52 63 7.2% 18 28 38 48 58 8.2% 17 26 35 45 54 9.2% 17 25 33 42 50 Note: Assuming LT thermal coal price = A$140/t WACC LT metallurgical coal price (A$/t) 160 180 200 220 240 5.2% 43 43 44 44 45 6.2% 40 40 41 41 41 7.2% 37 37 38 38 39 8.2% 35 35 35 36 36 9.2% 33 33 33 34 34 Note: Assuming LT metallurgical coal price = A$200/t Source: Company data, CMBIG estimates Financial Summary INCOME STATEMENT 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (AUD mn) Revenue 7,778 6,860 5,949 6,144 6,383 6,589 Royalties and other related payments (685) (639) (574) (593) (616) (636) Staff costs (730) (796) (821) (866) (909) (936) Others (2,901) (3,135) (3,199) (3,119) (3,231) (3,315) Other income 26 159 74 31 32 33 EBITDA 3,488 2,449 1,429 1,597 1,660 1,735 Depreciation (881) (750) (778) (789) (771) (804) EBIT 2,607 1,699 651 808 888 931 Interest expense (53) (39) (42) (4) (4) (4) Others 29 29 14 14 14 14 Pre-tax profit 2,583 1,689 623 817 898 941 Income tax (764) (473) (183) (240) (264) (276) After tax profit 1,819 1,216 440 577 634 664 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit 1,819 1,216 440 577 634 664 BALANCE SHEET 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (AUD mn) Current assets 2,533 3,540 3,218 3,207 3,665 3,908 Cash & equivalents 1,397 2,461 2,127 2,155 2,607 2,652 Account receivables 662 600 530 648 506 830 Inventories 416 419 489 332 472 352 Other current assets 58 60 72 72 80 73 Non-current assets 8,721 8,816 8,987 8,972 8,984 8,969 PP&E 3,582 3,909 4,283 4,491 4,703 4,870 Right-of-use assets 4,278 4,023 3,833 3,607 3,404 3,214 Deferred income tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 Investment in JVs & assoc 431 447 448 455 462 474 Intangibles 131 134 131 127 124 120 Other non-current assets 299 303 292 292 292 292 Total assets 11,254 12,356 12,205 12,178 12,650 12,877 Current liabilities 1,048 1,234 1,390 1,090 1,259 1,178 Short-term borrowings 44 37 43 43 43 43 Account payables 734 975 1,084 784 953 872 Other current liabilities 270 222 263 263 263 263 Non-current liabilities 1,764 1,805 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 Long-term borrowings 102 75 41 41 41 41 Other non-current liabilities 1,662 1,730 1,741 1,741 1,741 1,741 Total liabilities 2,812 3,039 3,172 2,872 3,041 2,960 Total shareholders equity 8,440 9,315 9,031 9,304 9,607 9,915 Minority interest 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total equity and liabilities 11,254 12,356 12,205 12,178 12,650 12,877 CASH FLOW 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec (AUD mn) Operating Profit before taxation 2,583 1,689 623 817 898 941 Depreciation & amortization 881 750 778 789 771 804 Tax paid (2,123) (660) (285) (240) (264) (276) Change in working capital (129) 315 67 (260) 162 (278) Others (10) (43) (9) (83) (73) (80) Net cash from operations 1,202 2,051 1,174 1,022 1,494 1,111 Investing Capital expenditure (611) (698) (744) (750) (760) (760) Acquisition of subsidiaries/ investments 0 0 (68) (17) (17) (17) Others 97 100 158 81 71 72 Net cash from investing (514) (598) (654) (686) (706) (705) Financing Dividend paid (1,413) (429) (769) (304) (331) (356) Net borrowings (496) (34) (28) 0 0 0 Proceeds from share issues 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others (95) (42) (26) (4) (4) (4) Net cash from financing (2,004) (505) (823) (308) (336) (360) Net change in cash Cash at the beginning of the year 2,699 1,397 2,461 2,127 2,155 2,607 Exchange difference 14 116 (31) 0 0 0 Cash at the end of the year 1,397 2,461 2,127 2,155 2,607 2,652 GROWTH 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Revenue (26.3%) (11.8%) (13.3%) 3.3% 3.9% 3.2% EBITDA (44.1%) (29.8%) (41.7%) 11.7% 3.9% 4.6% EBIT (51.8%) (34.8%) (61.7%) 24.1% 9.9% 4.8% Net profit (49.3%) (33.1%) (63.8%) 31.2% 9.8% 4.8% PROFITABILITY 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec EBITDA margin 44.8% 35.7% 24.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.3% Return on equity (ROE) 22.1% 13.7% 4.8% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% GEARING/LIQUIDITY/ACTIVITIES 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec Net debt to equity (x) (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) Current ratio (x) 2.4 2.9 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.3 Receivable turnover days 32.8 33.6 34.7 35.0 33.0 37.0 Inventory turnover days 52.2 54.6 58.5 55.0 52.0 52.0 Payable turnover days 87.3 87.0 102.9 95.0 85.0 87.0 VALUATION 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E YE 31 Dec P/E 4.4 6.6 18.4 14.0 12.7 12.2 P/B 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Div yield (%) 11.4 8.5 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.5 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates. Note: The calculation of net cash includes financial assets. # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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