兰德-Breaking-Down-Barriers_-Experiments-into-Policies-That-Might-Incentivize-Employers-to-Hire-Ex_28页_849kb

Summary: Breaking Down Barriers – Experiments into Policies That Might Incentivize Employers to Hire Ex-Offenders

Core Content

This study explores employer preferences for policies that could incentivize the hiring of individuals with felony criminal records. It is based on a discrete choice experiment with 107 employers from 34 U.S. states, mostly private-sector firms with fewer than 100 employees. The findings highlight how specific policy features can influence employers' willingness to hire ex-offenders, despite the significant labor market barriers they face.

Key Findings

• Employer Preferences: Employers are more likely to consider hiring individuals with a nonviolent felony conviction if supported by certain policy incentives.

  • A 25% staffing agency fee discount combined with post-conviction certification results in 4.3 out of 10 employers considering hiring.
  • Adding a guaranteed replacement worker program increases this to 7.3 out of 10.
  • A 25% tax credit (up to $2,500) with post-conviction certification results in 5.9 out of 10 employers considering hiring.
  • A 40% tax credit (up to $5,000) increases the likelihood to 7.7 out of 10.
  • A validated work performance history raises the likelihood to 8.1 out of 10.

• Employer Concerns: When asked to rank factors influencing hiring decisions for ex-offenders, employers emphasized:

  • Ability to get to the job on time
  • Workplace liability issues
  • Interaction with other staff and clients
  • Time since last felony conviction
  • Skill level
  • Violent felony conviction
  • Reliability

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Guaranteed replacement worker programs are among the most effective in increasing employer willingness to hire.
  • Expanding post-conviction certification programs could improve employer confidence in ex-offenders’ work history and reliability.
  • Reducing the administrative burden of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) could enhance its effectiveness.
  • Improving transportation access for ex-offenders also increases the likelihood of hiring.

Background on Criminal Records and Employment

• Criminal Record Prevalence: According to a 2008 estimate, 64.6 million Americans (25% of the population) have a criminal record, with 19.8 million having at least one felony conviction.
• Incarceration Rates: By the end of 2015, 6.8 million adults were under correctional supervision in the U.S., with 70% on community supervision.
• Incarceration Disparities: Rates vary by state, from 0.9% in Maine to 7% in Georgia.

Economic Implications

• Labor Market Impact: Having a criminal record significantly reduces employment and earnings, particularly for young, low-skilled men, who are 6 percentage points less likely to be employed and earn 14–26% less on average.
• Income Inequality: Rising incarceration rates have been linked to increased income inequality, with the top 1% seeing 275% growth in income and the lowest quintile only 18% growth between 1978 and 2007.
• Causal Link: There is a potential causal relationship between employment and recidivism, suggesting that better labor market outcomes could reduce reoffending.

Theories of Labor Market Discrimination

1. Lower Productivity and Reliability

• Ex-offenders are often associated with lower productivity and reliability, which can reduce their employment opportunities and wages.
• Pre-existing characteristics like less education, poor health, and weak social skills contribute to these outcomes.
• Recidivism, residential mobility, and transportation barriers further limit their ability to secure stable employment.

2. Taste-Based Discrimination

• Some employers may have prejudices or biases against ex-offenders, leading to stigma-based discrimination.
• This theory suggests that employers may prefer certain groups over others, even when individuals are equally qualified.

3. Statistical Discrimination

• Employers may generalize based on criminal records, assuming that all individuals with such records are low-productivity.
• This can lead to systemic discrimination in hiring, even if the record is not an accurate indicator of an individual's productivity.

Existing Employment Policies

1. Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC)

• A federal tax credit for hiring ex-offenders, with a maximum of $2,500 for a 25% wage subsidy after 120 hours of work.
• The program is underutilized due to low awareness, frequent expiration, and insufficient financial incentives.
• Expanding the credit to 40% (up to $5,000) could have a more significant impact.

2. Ban the Box (BTB)

• Delays the disclosure of criminal history in the hiring process, potentially increasing employment opportunities.
• Studies suggest BTB policies may reduce recidivism, but also have unintended consequences, such as discrimination against minority groups due to reliance on observable characteristics like race and age.

3. Certificates of Rehabilitation

• Provide legal validation of an ex-offender's employability, helping to mitigate stigma and reduce liability concerns.
• Available in 11 states, these certificates can restore rights, facilitate licensing, and protect employers from negligent hiring claims.

Policy Implications

• Guaranteed replacement programs are highly effective in reducing employer hesitancy.
• Post-conviction certification should be expanded to provide more detailed and verifiable information about ex-offenders.
• Reducing administrative burden for the WOTC is crucial for its broader implementation.
• Transportation support is an important but less impactful policy feature.

Conclusion

The study underscores the importance of policy design in addressing labor market barriers for ex-offenders. While employer preferences are influenced by various factors, policy incentives that reduce perceived risks and improve signaling of employability can significantly increase the likelihood of hiring. Policymakers should consider local contexts and implementation costs when designing programs to support ex-offender reentry and employment.