2015年-世界发展银行全球_MENA_Economies_Hit_by_Conflicts_Civil_Wars_and_Lower_Oil_Prices_3页_662kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Quick Notes Series

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the economic challenges facing the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015, focusing on the impact of conflicts, civil wars, and declining oil prices on economic growth and fiscal stability.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Economic Growth in MENA

• Overall Growth: The World Bank projects that MENA's GDP growth will be less than 3% for the third consecutive year, with an estimated 2.8% in 2015.
• Regional Variations:
  • GCC Countries: Expected to grow at 3.2% in 2015, down from 3.9% in 2014, due to low oil prices and high fiscal spending.
  • Algeria: Growth is expected to remain at 2.8% in 2015.
  • Developing Oil Exporters: Suffered a double blow from low oil prices and civil wars. Growth for this group is projected at 1.3% in 2015, up from 0.9% in 2014.
  • Syria and Libya: Experienced a drop of 40% or more in oil output due to conflict and infrastructure damage.
  • Iran: Expected to grow faster from 2016 onwards due to the nuclear agreement and lifting of sanctions, which may increase oil production and lower global prices.

2. Fiscal and Current Account Deficits

• GCC Fiscal Positions: Surpluses in 2013 are expected to turn into deficits in 2015, with a projected deficit of 9.8% of GDP.
• Saudi Arabia: Expected to face a fiscal deficit of 19.5% of GDP in 2015 and 12.6% in 2016.
• Libya: Fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 55% of GDP, and current account deficit to reach 70% of GDP.
• Impact of Oil Prices: Continued weakness in oil prices will lead to the diversion of funds from Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) and reserves to finance deficits.

3. Oil Importers' Challenges

• Tunisia: Real GDP growth is projected to drop from 2.3% in 2014 to 0.8% in 2015 due to terrorist attacks, weak regional demand, and political uncertainty.
• Tourism: Tourism arrivals in Tunisia have been cut in half, as shown in Figure 3.
• Palestine: The economy is recovering from recession following the 2014 Gaza war, with 3% growth in 2015.
• Egypt and Morocco: These two countries may have experienced stronger growth in 2015, but they face significant challenges.

4. Investment and Financing Needs

• High Investment Needs: MENA countries require substantial investment to develop infrastructure and improve economic conditions.
• Egypt: Needs an additional $30–35 billion in investment and $10 billion for infrastructure development.
• Jordan: Requires more than $6 billion annually in additional investment.
• Tunisia: Aims to increase investment by 7 percentage points of GDP over the next five years.
• Iran: Needs hundreds of billions of dollars to upgrade oil fields and return to pre-sanctions production levels.

5. Macroeconomic Imbalances

• Fiscal Deficits: The overall fiscal surplus of 2% of GDP in 2013 is expected to turn into a deficit of 9.2% of GDP in 2015.
• External Account Deficits: The external account surplus from the previous two years is projected to become a deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2015.
• Causes: Falling oil prices (starting in 2014) reduced the surplus in oil-exporting countries by 50%, and weak recovery in the Euro area decreased external demand for oil and non-oil exports.

Conclusion

Since the 2011 Arab Spring, the MENA region has faced a slowdown in economic growth, increased violence and civil wars, and more recently, significant macroeconomic imbalances due to lower oil prices. These challenges have affected both oil exporters and importers, leading to fiscal deficits, reduced growth, and heightened investment needs. The outlook for recovery remains uncertain, especially if oil prices continue to fall and conflicts persist.

Contact Information

• Director: Deborah L. Wetzel, Strategy and Operations, MENA Region
• Team Members: Omer Karasapan and Mark Volk
• Tel #: (202) 473 8177
• Note Purpose: To summarize lessons learned from MENA and other World Bank Knowledge and Learning activities.
• Disclaimer: The notes do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board, or its member countries.