2025-06-05-Jefferies-任天堂公司（7974）_任天堂的成功能否使其成为日本市值最大的公司_11页_627kb

Nintendo Co. Ltd. - Equity Research Summary

Rating: BUY
Price Target: ¥20,220 (up from ¥15,580)
Market Cap: ¥14.1T ($98.9B)

Key Analysis Points

1. Switch 2 Launch Impact:

   • Early sales momentum is strong, exceeding analyst expectations. Pre-orders in Japan are double those of the original Switch.
   • 3-year hardware shipment forecast raised to 17m, 22m, 27m units, implying a larger install base of 66m compared to previous 60m estimate.

2. Financial Projections:

   • Revenue forecasted to grow from ¥1.165T (FY25) to ¥3.92T (FY28), with operating profit up ~4x.
   • EPS is projected to reach ¥640 by FY27, driven by higher hardware margins (OPM to ~27.9%) and increased digital game revenue.

3. Valuation:

   • Price target is ¥20,220, based on 30x FY27 EPS + ¥1,020 excess cash per share.
   • Sensitivity analysis shows upside scenarios (e.g., ¥29,530 if EPS reaches ¥800) and downside (e.g., ¥12,510 if EPS falls 25%).

4. Market Position:

   • With the global gaming industry consolidating into a Nintendo-Sony duopoly, Nintendo's pricing power and market share are expected to strengthen.
   • Install base could grow to 2.27bn by 2028, supporting ongoing revenue growth.

5. Risks:

   • Near-term cyclical decline risk if Switch 2's software lineup underperforms.
   • Demand saturation concerns as tie ratios decline.

Recommendations

• Buy rated with a 67% upside from current price. Focus on near-term hardware momentum and long-term structural advantages.