20230629-东证期货-综合晨报_主要央行行长强调维持紧缩_5月工企利润降幅收窄_14页_663kb

Summary of June 29, 2023, East Sunshine Futures Comprehensive Morning Report

• Financial Market Overview: Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and others, reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining restrictive policies to combat inflation, despite softening inflation trends. This stance is expected to keep risk aversion high in financial markets, with the dollar likely to remain strong in the short term.

• Chinese Economic Data: Industrial profit growth for China's规模以上 enterprises in May declined 12.6% year-on-year, showing sequential improvement but still indicating weak demand. Factors like reduced inventory (at 32% year-over-year) and ongoing policy needs for stabilizing internal demand are highlighted. The overall industrial profit decay (down 188% year-on-year) suggests slow economic recovery.

• Commodity Markets:

  • Copper: Prices exhibit broad oscillation due to supply disruptions in South America, but macroeconomic pressures from inflation-fighting policies limit upside. Short-term trends are mixed, with sentiment support from inventory events counterbalanced by policy risks.
  • Oil: Crude prices rebounded significantly after EIA data showed commercial inventory reductions, supported by ongoing withdrawal from Strategic Petroleum Reserves. However, concerns about global oversupply and economic slowdown cap long-term gains.
  • PTA and Other Chemicals: PTA fundamentals remain neutral, with high polyester utilization rates potentially leading to capacity adjustments. No clear directional bias detected, tied to oil price and macroeconomic cycles.
  • Agricultural: Wheat, corn, and sugar markets show mixed signals; production estimates are revised upward, but demand lags. Sugar prices are viewed for potential volatility amid supply-demand dynamics in major producing regions.

• Energy and Index Futures: Bonds are set for short-term oscillation as policy expectations evolve. Equity indices face a manganese-based support due to ongoing but not aggressive profit generation. Policies to stimulate demand could influence long-term trends.

This summary condenses key points from the June 29, 2023, report, focusing on inflation control, market impacts, and commodity-specific risks.