2005年-ECB欧洲央行_Construction_developments_in_the_euro_area_4页_111kb

Box 6: Construction Developments in the Euro Area

Core Content

Construction is a significant sector within the euro area economy, contributing around 17% of overall industrial production. It also accounts for 28% of industrial employment and 19% of industrial value added in constant prices as of 2004. Moreover, construction investment makes up nearly half of total investment in the euro area, representing approximately 10% of real GDP. These figures highlight the sector's importance in assessing economic cycles.

Key Statistics

• Construction output constitutes about 17% of overall industrial production.
• Industrial employment in construction is over 28%.
• Value added from construction is around 19% of the industrial sector (in constant prices).
• Construction investment accounts for nearly 50% of total investment in the euro area.
• Construction investment contributes about 10% to real GDP.
• Average annual growth rate for both construction and non-construction production since the early 1990s has been around 1.5%.
• Correlation between construction and non-construction production has declined to about 0.4 in recent years.

Main Points

Volatility and Data Frequency

• Construction output is more volatile than industrial production excluding construction, making it difficult to assess short-term economic activity.
• Euro area construction production data is currently released quarterly, but Eurostat plans to publish it monthly by 2006 following a regulatory amendment.

Country-Specific Variations

• Construction output varies significantly across euro area countries, with some experiencing strong growth and others facing contraction.
• Countries like Austria and Finland have seen strong expansion in construction, while Spain and Italy have experienced weaker growth.
• Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands have seen substantial declines in construction output.
• In Germany, both residential and business construction face excess supply, while public construction remains depressed.

Influencing Factors

• Weather conditions affect construction activity, leading to delays or halts in work.
• Fiscal policies can influence construction, as seen in the case of Germany following reunification, where government incentives spurred growth.
• Interest rates impact housing demand and, thus, construction investment.
• Demographic changes affect long-term housing demand and construction production.

Short-Term Indicators

• The construction confidence indicator from the European Commission provides insights into short-term developments.
• It has been broadly consistent with actual construction activity since the early 1990s (see Chart C).
• However, it does not capture the higher frequency fluctuations in construction output and contains limited leading information.
• Recent confidence improvements have been observed in all euro area countries except Italy and Greece, where construction confidence has worsened since end-2003, likely due to the unwinding of Olympic-related stimulus.

Conclusion

• Despite the relatively high long-term co-movement between construction and non-construction industrial production, country-specific factors lead to heterogeneous growth in the construction sector.
• This variability has blurred the assessment of overall industrial production and investment trends.
• Nonetheless, construction remains a crucial component of the euro area economy, influencing the assessment of economic activity due to its size and volatility.