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2017 Global Forecast Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Global Forecast is a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that outlines the key national security challenges facing the Trump administration as it prepares to take office. It is authored by John J. Hamre, the President and CEO of CSIS, and includes insights from various CSIS experts on a range of topics, including alliances, regional competitors, and the impact of the communications revolution.

Main National Security Challenges

1. Domestic Challenges

• The U.S. faces internal issues such as political polarization, a bloated government, economic stagnation, and societal division.
• These domestic problems have significant implications for national security.
• To restore international standing and influence, the administration must address real issues like job creation, tax reform, education, and infrastructure.
• A successful domestic policy will enhance the U.S.'s ability to project power and influence abroad.

2. Ambivalent Allies

• The U.S. has a complex relationship with its allies, particularly in Europe, Asia, and the Gulf.
• Allies may question the U.S.'s commitment to shared security burdens due to perceived lack of leadership and strategic clarity.
• The Cold War-era strategy of building alliances and sharing the burden of defense remains relevant, but the current geopolitical environment is more complex.
• The U.S. must reinvigorate its alliances and demonstrate a renewed commitment to collective security.

3. Assertive Regional Competitors

• Regional powers such as China, Russia, and Iran are becoming more assertive, using gray zone activities (cyber, hybrid warfare, etc.) to challenge U.S. influence without triggering an overt response.
• These activities are hard to detect and respond to, making them particularly dangerous.
• The U.S. and its allies are not well-equipped to handle these threats, which cross traditional boundaries of defense, diplomacy, and economics.
• The U.S. still has a qualitative edge over these competitors, but its quantitative spending has declined relative to them.

4. Communications Revolution

• The rise of digital communication has transformed national security, making the U.S. more vulnerable to cyber threats and asymmetric attacks.
• The U.S. struggles to balance security and privacy, with both the government and private sector viewing these in maximalist terms.
• The ability of individuals to bypass traditional institutions through modern communication tools has weakened governments' capacity to respond effectively to global events.

Key Observations

• The U.S.-led global order is not crumbling, despite growing concerns.
• The U.S. remains a liberal leviathan that has sustained global stability through economic strength, alliances, and institutional frameworks.
• While economic confidence in the U.S. is strong among international investors, public opinion is more skeptical.
• Alliances are still largely positive, with increased joint operations and interoperability, although spending commitments are not always met.
• The BRICS have not replaced the U.S. as the global leader, and the U.S. continues to dominate foreign direct investment and innovation.
• Authoritarianism is on the rise in several regions, threatening democratic norms and the rule of law.
• The G-20 has played a role in countering protectionism, but lacks the cohesion and direction of the G-7.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the U.S. must act decisively to address these challenges and maintain its global leadership. It argues that the U.S. has the capacity and will to lead, but must reform its domestic policies, rebuild alliances, and adapt to new security threats. The preservation of democratic values and the renewal of international cooperation are seen as essential to ensuring the U.S. remains a strong and influential global actor.

Key Quotes

• "The security challenges we face today may be less existential than during the Cold War, but they are dramatically more complex."
• "The problem is that there is no coherent geopolitical concept of 'the West' any longer in Washington, London, or Berlin."
• "If our country can solve real problems domestically over the next four years, our international standing and influence will rise dramatically."

About CSIS

• CSIS is a nonprofit think tank based in Washington, D.C., with a focus on defense and security, regional stability, and transnational challenges.
• It does not take specific policy positions, and all views are those of the authors.
• The report is part of a broader effort to flesh out policy areas that the new administration will face.

Table of Contents Highlights