德银-美股-化工商品行业-美国化工行业12月排行榜-20180103-93页_1mb

报告摘要

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the US Chemicals sector as of January 3, 2018, focusing on stock performance, valuations, and key company insights. It highlights the performance of individual companies, valuation metrics, and the overall market outlook.

Main Points

December Performance: US Chemicals were flat compared to the S&P, with Lyondell and Axalta outperforming. Lyondell's performance was attributed to delayed new ethylene capacity, hurricane-induced PE pricing strength, and rising oil prices. Axalta provided an in-line 2018 outlook but remained open to transformative deals.
Westlake Chemical: Despite strong performance in 2017, the company is still recommended for purchase due to its strong fundamentals and valuation in-line with peers. The price target is $115.
Praxair Upgrade: Praxair was upgraded to Buy due to accelerating volume growth, improved pricing discipline, and potential synergy and EBITDA growth from the Linde merger.
Sherwin-Williams: While showing strong growth potential, it is considered fairly valued, leading to a Hold rating with a price target of $420.
Valuation Overview: The US Chemicals sector (excluding ag) has a current forward P/E of 19.7, which is 32% above the 10-year average. However, the sector is trading at a 4% discount to the S&P 500, which is viewed as reasonable due to structurally low US ethane prices.
Top Picks: The top picks include Eastman Chemical, Ashland, and DowDuPont, with price targets of $94.27, $73.13, and $71.90 respectively.

Key Information

Stock Performance

Lyondell: +5.4% in December
Axalta: +2.2% in December
Westlake: +86% YTD
Praxair: +11.3% 3-month
Sherwin-Williams: +14.8% 3-month
Methanex: +21.0% 3-month
FMC: +6.2% 3-month
Kraton: +19.1% 3-month
Huntsman: +21.9% 3-month

Valuation Metrics

Forward P/E Multiple: 19.7x, 32% above 10-year average
Valuation Discount to S&P 500: 4%
Valuation Methods: Forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and cash return on capital are used to evaluate the sector.

Company-Specific Valuation

Company	Current NTM P/E	3-Year NTM P/E	5-Year NTM P/E	10-Year NTM P/E	Current Relative P/E	3-Year Relative P/E	5-Year Relative P/E	10-Year Relative P/E
Eastman Chemical	11.4	10.2	10.5	10.8	62%	60%	67%	77%
Ashland	20.3	18.5	16.3	13.6	111%	109%	101%	94%
DowDuPont	17.3	14.9	14.8	14.2	95%	88%	93%	100%
LyondellBasell	11.5	9.3	9.9	9.7	63%	55%	62%	67%
Westlake Chemical	15.9	13.3	13.2	15.6	87%	79%	83%	113%
Praxair	24.3	20.0	19.5	18.5	133%	119%	123%	132%
Sherwin-Williams	22.4	21.7	21.5	18.4	123%	129%	136%	129%
Other Companies	Varies	Varies	Varies	Varies	Varies	Varies	Varies	Varies

Conclusion

The US Chemicals sector is showing mixed performance, with some companies outperforming due to specific factors such as supply chain disruptions and merger synergies. Despite a relatively high P/E multiple, valuations are considered reasonable given the structural advantages in ethane prices. The report recommends several companies for investment, highlighting their growth potential and value creation opportunities.

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