WTO最新报告_2025年全球商品贸易量将下降0.2_中国商品出口将在北美以外地区增长4_至9（英）-2025_40页_1mb

About the WTO

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an international body that establishes global trade rules to ensure smooth, predictable, and free trade among nations with a level playing field for all members. The publication does not reflect the positions of WTO members and is not intended to have legal implications.
Key contributors include Ralph Ossa (WTO Chief Economist), Coleman Nee, Barbara D’Andrea Adrian, Eddy Bekkers, Michael Blanga-Gubbay, and Marc Auboin, among others.

Contents

1. Executive Summary

   • Global trade growth faces sharp deterioration due to heightened tariffs and trade policy uncertainty (TPU).
   • Merchandise trade is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2025, followed by a modest recovery to 2.5% in 2026, contrasting with the baseline scenario.
   • Services trade growth is revised downward to 4.0% in 2025 (from 5.1% baseline) and 4.1% in 2026.

2. Outlook for World Trade in 2025 and 2026

   • Merchandise Trade:
     • Expected to fall 0.2% in 2025, down significantly from the projected 2.7% growth without recent policy shifts.
     • North America is the largest drag, subtracting 1.7 percentage points from global growth.
     • Asia’s contribution is halved to 0.6 percentage points.
     • Trade fragmentation and geopolitical realignment amplify risks.
   • Services Trade:
     • Growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 (down from 5.1%) and 4.1% in 2026.
     • Factors include reduced demand in travel and transport due to trade uncertainty.
     • Digitally delivered services face challenges due to regulatory barriers and currency fluctuations.

3. Drivers of Trade and Output

   • Macroeconomic conditions, including disinflation and fiscal policy, support trade growth, but trade policy uncertainty remains a major drag.
   • Higher tariffs reduce aggregate demand and real incomes, limiting trade expansion.

4. Fragmentation of World Trade

   • Trade flows are reorienting along geopolitical lines, with decoupling between major economies.
   • Fragmentation risks are amplified if bloc formation intensifies, with potential GDP losses in the long run.

5. Analytical Chapter: Modelling Trade Policy Uncertainty and Tariff Changes

   • TPU Effects:
     • Trade policy uncertainty dampens business confidence and investment, reducing trade flows.
     • Tariffs (e.g., U.S.-China tensions) impose direct costs and indirect spillover effects.
   • Regional Impacts:
     • Scenarios show significant losses in North America (e.g., GDP reduction of 0.69%).
     • Least-developed countries (LDCs) may benefit from trade diversion but face risks.
   • Simulated Scenarios:
     • Including TPU and tariff increases reduces global trade growth by up to 1.5 percentage points.

Appendix Tables:

• Leading exporters and importers in merchandise and commercial services trade.
• Digitally delivered services trade data.

Bibliography

Sources include WTO reports, studies on trade elasticity, and journal articles on economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty.

Usefule resources

WTO provides access to trade and tariff data through platforms like data.wto.org and stats.wto.org.