2026年并购趋势调查_25页_4mb

2026 M&A Trends Survey Summary

Core Content

The 2026 M&A Trends Survey highlights a dual market dynamic in the M&A landscape, with distinct opportunities emerging in very large/mega deals (≥$10 billion) and smaller/midmarket deals (<$1 billion). The report is based on data from 1,500 corporate and private equity (PE) respondents, alongside macroeconomic and historical M&A data.

The title "A tale of two markets" reflects the divergence in deal activity between the first and second halves of 2025, with volatility and uncertainty playing a central role in shaping dealmaker strategies and expectations for 2026.

Main Findings

Part 1: Opportunities for Value Realization in 2026

1. Optimism Remains High

   • Over 80% of corporate and PE dealmakers expressed optimism about increased deal volume and value in 2026.
   • This optimism continues a trend from the post-pandemic era, despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

2. Expectations Are More Tempered

   • Respondents expect a moderate increase in deal volume rather than a significant rise.
   • This reflects a more cautious outlook due to mixed economic signals and ongoing volatility.

3. Mixed Macroeconomic Signals Demand Vigilance

   • The M&A market is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence, and unemployment.
   • While corporate earnings and equity markets rebounded in the second half of 2025, interest rates remained high, and inflation showed a slow upward trend.
   • The Federal Reserve's potential policy changes and regulatory shifts are areas of concern for dealmakers.

4. Opportunities in Smaller and Midmarket Segments

   • Despite the dominance of large deals in driving value, the number of deals remained relatively flat, indicating untapped potential in smaller and midmarket segments.
   • Corporate sellers may look to divest non-core assets to enhance liquidity and focus, creating more opportunities in this space.
   • Cash and dry powder availability supports transaction efficiency and reduces complexity in smaller deals.

5. Agility and Pivoting Are Key Competencies

   • The top challenge for M&A in 2025 was uncertain market conditions, up 10 points from 2024.
   • Pivoting strategies and agility have become table stakes for M&A leaders, as market conditions continue to shift rapidly.
   • Over 85% of respondents adjusted their targeting and dealmaking approaches in the past 1-2 years.

Part 2: Three Notable Survey Findings

1. New Trends in Deal Financing

   • Private credit remains a preferred financing method, though default risks are rising.
   • Cash is re-emerging as a viable financing option, increasing from 33% in 2024 to 40% in 2025.
   • All-equity deals are also on the rise, reflecting a strong equity market in 2025.

2. Digital Transformation and AI Focus

   • AI is increasingly integrated into the M&A life cycle, with 99% of respondents implementing AI at varying levels.
   • AI is being used to improve decision-making, synergy realization, and transaction execution.
   • There is a clear expectation that AI will have moderate to significant impact on M&A over the next two years.
   • Risks such as privacy, security, and accuracy must be managed alongside AI's potential to enhance efficiency and value.

3. Shift in Cross-Border Transactions

   • Cross-border dealmaking declined in 2025, with only 24% of respondents focusing on international targets, down from 36% in 2024.
   • Geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and economic uncertainty are driving a refocus on domestic deals.
   • Companies may divest international subsidiaries in response to these challenges, creating new opportunities in domestic markets.

Key Information

• Volatility was a defining feature of 2025, with significant spikes in the VIX index due to tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy uncertainty.
• M&A activity in the second half of 2025 saw a sharp increase in aggregate deal value, largely due to a few very large deals.
• Regulatory changes, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), are expected to influence M&A outcomes through tax-related implications.
• Financing trends show a shift toward private credit and cash, with all-equity deals also gaining traction.
• AI is becoming a central element in M&A strategy, with a focus on synergy realization and efficiency.
• Cross-border deals are becoming less common, with a refocus on domestic markets and potential divestitures of international assets.

Conclusion and Recommendations

2026 presents a dual market opportunity, with both very large/mega deals and smaller/midmarket deals offering value. Dealmakers are advised to:

• Maintain agility and strategic pivoting in response to market volatility.
• Focus on well-developed strategies to navigate macroeconomic headwinds.
• Consider smaller deals as a viable avenue for growth, especially with increased liquidity and lower competition.
• Leverage AI and digital transformation to enhance decision-making and execution.
• Be prepared for regulatory changes and tax implications that may affect deal structures and outcomes.

Next Steps

Deloitte will continue to monitor and provide guidance on M&A trends, financing innovations, AI integration, and regulatory shifts to help clients adapt to the evolving market landscape.

About the Survey

• Conducted between September 20 and October 9, 2025.
• Polled 1,500 executives from US-headquartered corporations and private equity firms.
• Respondents represented a wide range of industries and revenues, with a significant portion working in high-revenue sectors.
• 71% of respondents were in C-suite positions, with 23% being CEOs.

Authors and Contributors

• Adam Reilly – National Managing Partner, Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructuring Services, Deloitte & Touche LLP
• Barry Winer – Head of Research, Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructuring Services, Deloitte Services LP
• Contributors: Yelena Blackwell, Henning Buchholz, Brian Kunisch, Joel Schlachtenhaufen, Brenna Sniderman, Ryan Stecz, Andrew Wilson, and others.