2025-06-15-Jefferies-嘉能可（GLEN）_邦吉-维特拉交易与股票回购_9页_266kb

Glencore Equity Research Summary

Deal Update: Bunge-Viterra Acquisition

• Glencore sold its 49.9% stake in Viterra to Bunge for $1bn cash and 32.8 million Bunge shares (valued at ~$2.7bn). Deal expected to close in July 2025, subject to regulatory approvals.
• Glencore is restricted from selling Bunge shares for 12 months post-closing and may sell orderly thereafter.
• The deal funds Glencore's recent $1bn buyback and provides potential additional share repurchase capacity.

Financial Highlights

• Current share price: 291.70p; 12-month price target: 380p (+30%);
• FCF yield: ~9% ex-Viterra; EBITDA for 2026E: 15,045.3mm; EPS for 2026E: 0.30.
• Deal proceeds enable ~$1.35bn potential buyback if shares are partially cash-equivalent for debt.
• Glencore's management plans to exit the Viterra position over time.

Positive Factors

• Recovery in copper and thermal coal prices supports Glencore's performance.
• Commodity price increases are expected to boost free cash flow, potentially leading to higher capital returns.
• Glencore trades at 5.2x 2026E EV/EBITDA and 9.1% FCF yield, among the highest metrics for major miners.

Risks and Outlook

• Key risks include macroeconomic slowdowns in key regions (US, Europe, China), operational disruptions, and geopolitical instability.
• Analysts recommend BUY, citing upside potential from re-rating due to value unlock through restructuring or breakup, with NPV-based price target 467p/sh.
• Catalysts: Commodity price recovery, M&A activities, regulatory outcomes.

ESG Considerations

• Top-ranked ESG issue: Business ethics, including bribery and corruption in emerging economies where Glencore operates.
• Targets include reducing Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by 15% by 2026 and 50% by 2035 from a 2019 baseline.
• Questions for management: Success in tackling Scope 3 emissions with value-chain partners; improvements in ethics and compliance programs.

Valuation Metrics

• Current market cap: $35.4B (USD); Debt/Capital: ~45% (2024); Net Debt/EBITDA 2025E: 2.4x.
• 2025E P/E: 17.0x; FCF yield 7.2%.

Analyst Certification

• Christopher LaFemina and Patricia Hove, CFA, certify that all views reflect their personal opinions and are not tied to compensation.