> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** January 16, 2026 # Morning Insight: January 16, 2026 Linlin Gao Certification: Z0002332 gaolinlin@ghtt.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification: F03133175 wuyuchen@ghtt.com # Main Body # Commodity Market Insight: Treasury Futures: On January 15, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25 bp cut to the interest rates on various structural monetary policy instruments, with the one-year relending rate lowered to $1.25\%$ and rates for other tenors adjusted accordingly. Vice Governor Zou Lan stated that there remains room this year for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and that the next step will involve flexible use of government bond purchase and sale operations. Overall, the PBOC has moved first by lowering the rates on structural monetary policy tools and by improving the toolkit while increasing the intensity of policy implementation, with eight follow-up measures to be introduced, including relending facilities for technological innovation, carbon emission reduction support tools, and relending for service consumption and elderly care. The decision to cut rates on structural tools rather than implementing a broad-based rate cut may reflect several considerations: against the backdrop of US CPI data coming in below expectations and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the upside for the US dollar index is limited, significantly easing spillover depreciation pressure on the CNY and reducing exchange-rate constraints on monetary easing at this juncture. Although the 10-year government bond yield has risen notably since 2025, given the strong influence of the China-US 10-year yield spread on the CNY, a broad rate cut that drives the 10-year yield sharply lower could generate additional depreciation pressure. At the same time, China and the US have reached a phased trade agreement, overall export pressure in 2026 appears limited, and the stronger-than-expected December export data released yesterday further suggest that the risk of a sharp near-term cooling in exports is low, reducing the necessity of proactively weakening the currency via a comprehensive rate cut to stimulate exports. Structural rate cuts can more precisely support weak links in the real economy and guide funds toward key areas such as technological innovation and the green economy, thereby providing targeted support to investment and production in these sectors. The timing of this rate cut is also related to the large volume of three-year and five-year long-term deposits maturing in 2026, as lower structural policy rates help reduce banks' interest expenses and stabilize net interest margins; however, with the one-year term deposit rate already down to $0.95\%$ , commercial banks' net interest margins remain under significant pressure, which may constrain further cuts to the LPR and in turn limit the downside for 10-year government bond yields. Following the structural rate cut, market sentiment fluctuated briefly, with the intraday 10-year yield falling by about 2 bp before rebounding. Looking ahead, after net interest margins stabilize, there may be one to two broad-based rate cuts in 2026, each of around 10 bp, and if the RMB stabilizes, a 50 bp RRR cut is also possible. Overall, bond market volatility is concentrated in the ultra-long end; higher margin requirements for margin financing act as a light brake on equities, and A-shares are expected to maintain a stable growth trend throughout 2026. Against the backdrop of improving inflation expectations, limited room for rate cuts, and policies encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, government bond futures are viewed as remaining in a range-bound but mildly bearish trend since mid-last year, with resilience at the short end, potential for a modest rebound at the long end in the near term, resistance near the 20-day moving average for the TL contract, and near-term strategies favoring 30 - 10 spread compression trades and duration substitution, while continuing to recommend selling into rallies for hedging and maintaining bullish calendar spread and positive carry trades over the medium term. Rapeseed oil: Rapeseed oil rebounded sharply from recent lows, driven by positive expectations surrounding US biodiesel policy. Media reports indicate that the Trump administration is advancing biofuel policy discussions and is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) by early March, while also potentially refraining from cutting the value of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for imported biofuels and their feedstocks. If implemented, US biodiesel policy would on the one hand boost expectations for global vegetable oil demand growth, and on the other hand support Canadian rapeseed oil exports to the US, helping to ease Canada's rapeseed inventory and export pressures and providing support to international rapeseed oil prices. Domestically, the rapeseed oil market currently reflects strong spot fundamentals but weak expectations: inventories remain relatively low, yet the market remains concerned about a potential increase in rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports, with particular focus on the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. As US biodiesel policy optimism lifts international vegetable oil prices—led by gains in US soybean oil—and reduces the likelihood of China directly importing Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil prices are likely to find support, and futures are expected to shift from a recently weak trend to a wide-range consolidation pattern. PX: Valuation has pulled back in line with the cost side and is now relatively neutral; attention should be paid to the strength of downstream restocking, and a long PX/short PTA hedging position is recommended. Looking ahead, PX supply - demand fundamentals are expected to gradually weaken: PX processing margins remain elevated (PXN previously at USD 350 - 370/ton, recently retreating to around USD 330/ton, with the PX-MX spread at USD 160/ton), plants are largely running at full rates, overseas processing-margin hedging positions have entered the market, and domestic PX producers have increased hedging positions, with domestic operating rates rising to $89.6\%$ $(+1.3\%)$ , currently with only Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. On the overseas side, Thailand's PTTGC 540 kt and South Korea's GS 550 kt PX units are scheduled to restart, while Kuwait's 820 kt unit is under maintenance. Imports are expected to exceed 950 kt in December. Downstream, polyester operating rates are expected to decline, with attention on the degree of realization; PTA operating rates are holding around $76\%$ , Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 mt PTA unit is under maintenance, PX supply is gradually loosening, and PTA processing margins have risen above RMB 400/ton, supporting a long PX/short PTA strategy. Chart 1: Market Snapshot <table><tr><td colspan="3">Market Snapshot</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 300 Index Futures</td><td>4737.6</td><td>0.32%</td></tr><tr><td>SSE 50 Index Futures</td><td>3109.0</td><td>-0.24%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 500 Index Futures</td><td>8221.0</td><td>0.14%</td></tr><tr><td>CSI 1000 Index Futures</td><td>8242.0</td><td>0.30%</td></tr><tr><td>30Y T-bond Futures</td><td>111.3</td><td>-0.08%</td></tr><tr><td>10Y T-bond Futures</td><td>107.9</td><td>0.11%</td></tr><tr><td>5Y T-bond Futures</td><td>105.7</td><td>0.09%</td></tr><tr><td>2Y T-bond Futures</td><td>102.3</td><td>0.04%</td></tr></table> Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # Open Interest Chart 2: Open Interest of IF Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 3: Open Interest of IH Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 4: Open Interest of IC Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research Chart 5: Open Interest of IM Source: iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Research # News Highlights: 1. China will continue to exempt overseas institutions from paying corporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest income gained from the Chinese bond market, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on Thursday. The policy will be effective from Jan. 1, 2026 to Dec. 31, 2027, according to a joint statement released by the two government departments. The move aims to further promote the opening up of the country's bond market. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's yuan-denominated loans rose by 16.27 trillion yuan (about 2.32 trillion U.S. dollars) last year, central bank data showed on Thursday. Of this total, household loans increased by 441.7 billion yuan, while loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 15.47 trillion yuan, according to the People's Bank of China. Outstanding yuan loans stood at 271.91 trillion yuan at the end of December 2025, up 6.4 percent year on year, the central bank said. The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased by 8.5 percent year on year to reach 340.29 trillion yuan at the end of December last year. The M1, which covers cash in circulation, demand deposits and client reserves of non-bank payment institutions, totaled 115.51 trillion yuan at the end of last month, up 3.8 percent year on year. Yuan deposits rose by 26.41 trillion yuan in 2025, with household deposits contributing 14.64 trillion yuan to this figure. Based on preliminary statistics, aggregate financing to the real economy was 35.6 trillion yuan last year, which was 3.34 trillion yuan more than the figure for 2024. Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy stood at 442.12 trillion yuan at the end of 2025, registering year-on-year growth of 8.3 percent. (Source: Xinhua) 3. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a cut in interest rates on all structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. The one-year relending rate will be reduced from 1.5 percent to 1.25 percent, with rates for other maturities adjusted accordingly, Zou Lan, deputy governor of the PBOC, said at a press conference on Thursday. (Source: Xinhua) Chart 6: Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar <table><tr><td rowspan="2">2026/1/19</td><td>National Economic Performance Monthly Report on Industrial Production Operation Monthly Report on Energy Production Monthly Report on Investment in Fixed Assets (Excluding Rural Households) Monthly Report on Investment in Real Estate Development</td></tr><tr><td>Monthly Report on Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Monthly Report on Sales Price Indexes of Commercial Residential Buildings Quarterly Report on Households' Income and Consumption Expenditure Quarterly Report on Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/20</td><td>Preliminary Accounting Report on Quarterly Value-Added of Major Industries</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/27</td><td>Monthly Report on Industrial Economic Benefits</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/30</td><td>Quarterly Report on Business Revenue of Enterprises Above the Designated Size Engaged in Culture and Related Industries</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/31</td><td>Monthly Report on Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)</td></tr></table> Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. 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