2025-06-12-Jefferies-雪花（SNOW）_一点火花_多引擎点燃_7页_191kb

Jefferies Equity Research: Snowflake (SNOW) - Buy Rating with $250 Price Target

Flash Note Findings:

• Databricks is rapidly gaining market share and projected to reach $3.7B revenue run rate in F1H26E (50% YoY growth), narrowing the gap with SNOW's $4.1B (26% growth). AI progress is improving for SNOW, though AI revenue contribution is still early, but Databricks' AI ARR exceeds $250M. Both companies are driving data democratization through AI tools.
• SNOW's momentum supports its AI potential; the Fairway team maintains a Buy rating based on Databricks' growth as a positive signal.

Key Metrics Comparison (Databricks vs. SNOW):

• Revenue Run Rate (F1H26E): >$3,700M vs. $4,073M; YoY Growth: 50% vs. 26%.
• Total Customers: >15,000 vs. 11,578; >$10M+ ARR Customers: ~45 vs. 40.
• Net Retention Rate: >140% vs. 124%.
• Databricks SQL is growing rapidly; SNOW dominates data warehousing with revenue of ~$1B higher than Databricks in FY24-25.

Valuation:

• DCF-based price target: $250, implying 16x FY27E total revenue. Current average price: $208.61, with a 52-week high of $214.83 and low of $107.13.

Risks:

• Sustained competitive differentiation if Redshift, Azure Synapse, or BigQuery innovate further.
• Gross margin upside through infrastructure procurement benefits.
• Growth potential could offset valuation risks, including the stock's premium status.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Four equity analysts certified the views, recommending "Buy" with a $250 price target.

Additional Context:

• AI and data warehousing advancements are key growth drivers. Recent enhancements, like Gen2 Warehouse and natural language queries, support SNOW's leadership. Growth is expected to accelerate, with SNOW as a clear market leader in data management, including data warehousing and data science solutions.