世界发展银行-360_deg_-Resilience---A-Guide-to-Prepare-the-Caribbean-for-a-New-Generation-of-Shocks_403页_39mb

Summary of $360^{\circ}$ Resilience: A Guide to Prepare the Caribbean for a New Generation of Shocks

Core Content

This document, $360^{\circ}$ Resilience: A Guide to Prepare the Caribbean for a New Generation of Shocks, is a comprehensive analysis of the resilience of Caribbean countries in the face of natural and economic shocks. It is authored by a team from the World Bank and GFDRR, with contributions from various experts and organizations, and is aimed at policymakers and stakeholders to guide future resilience-building efforts in the region.

The Caribbean is composed largely of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which have historically been exposed to both economic and natural shocks. The region's economies are heavily dependent on tourism and commodity exports, making them vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and natural disasters. These shocks have caused significant damage to infrastructure and economic activity, yet the region has shown resilience, often rebounding quickly due to informal mechanisms and external support such as remittances.

The report presents two key findings and three main recommendations for improving resilience in the Caribbean:

Main Findings

Finding 1

Caribbean countries have achieved a level of resilience that has supported economic development despite recurring damages and losses from natural and economic shocks. However, this resilience is largely based on informal mechanisms that do not systematically protect the poor and vulnerable, nor do they prevent the loss of human capital. Businesses have invested in disaster preparedness, including training and backup infrastructure, and remittances have helped stabilize consumption after disasters. Governments have also been effective in responding to extreme events, often through regional collaboration. Yet, many people remain in poverty, and past shocks have contributed to and perpetuated this condition.

Finding 2

Caribbean countries are not adequately prepared for the new challenges posed by climate change, particularly in the context of uncertain future tourism markets and limited fiscal space. The strategies that worked in the past will not be sufficient to address the more severe and frequent shocks expected in the future. Climate change is expected to intensify natural hazards and introduce new sources of volatility through impacts on health, agriculture, and coastal landscapes. The post-COVID-19 era has further increased uncertainty around tourism recovery, and many countries have already exhausted their fiscal capacity to cope with past crises.

Key Recommendations

Recommendation 1: Increase Government Efficiency

• Invest in digitalization to improve the efficiency of key government services.
• Streamline post-disaster spending processes.
• Reduce budget variability and fiscal risks through improved public asset management.
• Build fiscal resilience by implementing robust fiscal rules.
• Improve debt management to ensure long-term financial stability.
• Enhance transparency in budget allocation and liability assessments.
• Develop comprehensive disaster risk financing (DRF) strategies that cover all types of risk.
• Promote regional coordination and resource sharing to enhance collective resilience.

Recommendation 2: Empower Households and the Private Sector

• Improve access to quality risk data and make it publicly available.
• Strengthen social protection systems to cover more people and provide adequate support.
• Enhance worker skills through public works and training programs.
• Facilitate access to finance for households and businesses, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable.
• Encourage private sector investment in resilience and recovery, including micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).
• Support firms and households to diversify income sources and bounce back from disasters.

Recommendation 3: Reduce Future Physical Risk

• Invest in critical infrastructure to ensure continuity of services.
• Enforce and update building codes and standards to reduce vulnerability.
• Systematically consider emerging and changing risks in planning and policy.
• Plan for "building back better," possibly in different locations, to ensure long-term resilience.

Key Information

• Region Overview: The Caribbean is a region of SIDS with a history of dealing with large shocks, both economic and natural.
• Economic Structure: Most countries rely on tourism and commodity exports, which makes them vulnerable to global economic and climate changes.
• Natural Hazards: The region faces a wide range of natural hazards, including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and landslides.
• Infrastructure Vulnerability: A significant portion of the region's assets is exposed to natural hazards, with housing and transport being the most vulnerable sectors.
• Remittances and Recovery: Remittances from the diaspora play a key role in stabilizing consumption and supporting recovery.
• Fiscal Challenges: Many Caribbean countries have limited fiscal space and have exhausted their capacity to respond to past crises.
• Climate Change Impact: Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, leading to new economic and social challenges.
• Resilience Strategies: The report emphasizes the need for more systematic, transparent, and institutionally strong resilience strategies.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while Caribbean countries have shown resilience in the past, they are now facing a new generation of shocks that require more robust, inclusive, and forward-looking strategies. The three recommendations—increasing government efficiency, empowering households and the private sector, and reducing future physical risk—form the foundation for building a more resilient Caribbean. The document also serves as a guide for regional coordination, data transparency, and investment in both infrastructure and human capital to better withstand future shocks.